Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Application Of Model-Based Time Series Prediction Of Infrared Long-Wave Radiation Data For Exploring The Precursory Patterns Associated With The 2021 Madoi Earthquake, Jingye Zhang, Ke Sun, Junqing Zhu, Ning Mao, Dimitar Ouzounov

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Taking the Madoi M_S 7.4 earthquake of 21 May 2021 as an example, this paper proposes using time series prediction models to predict the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) anomalies and study short-term pre-earthquake signals. Five time series prediction models, including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and long short-term memory (LSTM), were trained with the OLR time series data of the aseismic moments in the 5° × 5° spatial range around the epicenter. The model with the highest prediction accuracy was selected to retrospectively predict the OLR values during the aseismic period and before the earthquake in the area. It …