Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Bounding The Moment Deficit Rate On Crustal Faults Using Geodetic Data: Application To Southern California, Jeremy Maurer, Kaj Johnson, Paul Segall

Geosciences and Geological and Petroleum Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

The interseismic moment deficit rate (MDR) constrains the potential for future moment release in earthquakes. Published estimates of the geodetic MDR in Southern California vary by a factor of 3 depending on the type of forward model, method of estimation, and data quality. It is our aim to determine to what degree these discrepancies may be explained by quantifying the uncertainty for a given class of forward models, accounting for data errors and limited model resolution. We apply a new method, the Constrained Optimization Bounding Estimator, to bound the MDR in Southern California using geodetic data and an elastic plate-block …