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Analysis Of Aftershock Parameters For The Alaskan Subduction Zone Tectonic Region, Gabrielle M. Paris

Geology Undergraduate Honors Theses

Forecasting how many earthquakes will occur following a potentially damaging earthquake helps the public and emergency operators stay safe and make informed decisions. The U.S. Geological Survey issues aftershock forecasts following potentially damaging earthquakes, using models to predict the number of earthquakes that should occur within the next day, week, month, and year with 95% confidence to reflect the uncertainty in aftershock behavior. The USGS considers the forecast to be "successful" when the number of earthquakes observed within the forecasted time period is within the 95% confidence interval. For aftershock sequences that occur along the forearc of the Alaskan subduction …