Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Climate, Wildfire, And Erosion Ensemble Foretells More Sediment In Western Usa Watersheds, John B. Sankey, Jason Kreitler, Todd J. Hawbaker, Jason L. Mcvay, Mary Ellen Miller, Erich R. Mueller, Nicole M. Vaillant, Scott E. Lowe, Temuulen T. Sankey

Michigan Tech Research Institute Publications

The area burned annually by wildfires is expected to increase worldwide due to climate change. Burned areas increase soil erosion rates within watersheds, which can increase sedimentation in downstream rivers and reservoirs. However, which watersheds will be impacted by future wildfires is largely unknown. Using an ensemble of climate, fire, and erosion models, we show that postfire sedimentation is projected to increase for nearly nine tenths of watersheds by >10% and for more than one third of watersheds by >100% by the 2041 to 2050 decade in the western USA. The projected increases are statistically significant for more than eight …