Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Delayed Coastal Inundations Caused By Ocean Dynamics Post-Hurricane Matthew, Kyungmin Park, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Yinglong J. Zhang, Tal Ezer, Fei Yi

CCPO Publications

Post Hurricane Abnormal Water Level (PHAWL) poses a persistent inundation threat to coastal communities, yet unresolved knowledge gaps exist regarding its spatiotemporal impacts and causal mechanisms. Using a high-resolution coastal model with a set of observations, we find that the PHAWLs are up to 50 cm higher than the normal water levels for several weeks and cause delayed inundations around residential areas of the U.S. Southeast Coast (USSC). Numerical experiments reveal that while atmospheric forcing modulates the coastal PHAWLs, ocean dynamics primarily driven by the Gulf Stream control the mean component and duration of the shelf-scale PHAWLs. Because of the …

Incorporating Equity Into Sea-Level Rise Planning: Perspectives From Practitioners Across California, Nayré Herrera

Cal Poly Humboldt theses and projects

Scholars along with national and state governments have increasingly made calls to incorporate an equity lens into climate adaptation processes and into sea-level rise planning specifically. However, the language used in these high-level policies remains vague. There remains a need to learn from practitioners on the ground about the challenges and opportunities for effectively incorporating an equity lens into sea-level rise adaptation and planning efforts. I conducted interviews with 17 individuals who are working within their agencies or organizations to advance equity across the California coast along with a review of 17 California coastal policy documents to gain insights into …

The Biophysical Resilience Capacity Of The Salish Sea’S Tidal Wetlands To Sea Level Rise, Kenna Kuhn

WWU Graduate School Collection

Tidal wetlands offer significant ecosystem services, cultural identity, and economic opportunities, but the impact that projected SLR will have on tidal wetlands in the Salish Sea is not known. In this thesis, I examine the exposure, watershed-scale biophysical resilience capacity, and jurisdictional variation in resilience capacity of the Salish Sea’s tidal wetlands to SLR. I quantify exposure, resilience, and jurisdictional variation using existing spatial data and analysis techniques. I employ a framework for biophysical resilience capacity developed by NOAA and NERRA. This study’s results indicate that there is substantial variation in wetlands area by watershed, from 0 km² to …

Dataset: Marsh Migration Methodology Development For Wetland Restoration Targeting, Molly Mitchell, Karinna Nunez, Christine Tombleson, Julie Herman

Data

Coastal marsh loss is a significant issue globally, due in part to rising sea levels and high levels of coastal human activity. Marshes have natural mechanisms to allow them to adapt to rising sea levels, however, migration across the landscape is one of those mechanisms and is frequently in conflict with human use of the shoreline. Ensuring the persistence of marshes into the future requires an understanding of where marshes are likely to migrate under sea level rise and targeting those areas for conservation and preservation activities. The goal of this project was to 1) compile existing datasets and information …

Synthesis Of Shoreline, Sea Level Rise, And Marsh Migration Data For Wetland Restoration Targeting Final Report, Molly Mitchell, Karinna Nunez, Christine Tombleson, Julie Herman

Data

Coastal marsh loss is a significant issue globally, due in part to rising sea levels and high levels of coastal human activity. Marshes have natural mechanisms to allow them to adapt to rising sea levels, however, migration across the landscape is one of those mechanisms and is frequently in conflict with human use of the shoreline. Ensuring the persistence of marshes into the future requires an understanding of where marshes are likely to migrate under sea level rise and targeting those areas for conservation and preservation activities. The goal of this project was to 1) compile existing datasets and information …

Tidal Flooding In The Mid-Atlantic Region Of The Us: Water Quality Effects In The Lower Chesapeake Bay, Alfonso Macias Tapia

OES Theses and Dissertations

Many coastal areas around the globe suffer from nutrient pollution and its environmental, social, and economic consequences. Nutrient inputs can come from point (e.g., the end of a pipe) and nonpoint sources, from which the former are better constrained as sampling need only be conducted at a discharge point. Given the temporal and spatially extensive nature of tidal flooding events, they can represent another type of nonpoint source of nutrients to adjacent water bodies heretofore, unexamined and quantified. Most studies examining impacts of tidal flooding have focused on threats to resources on land, such as urban infrastructure and human health …

Relative Sea Level Rise In The Winyah Bay-Waccamaw River Tidal System Over The Last Thirteen Years, Thomas M. Williams, Thomas L. O'Halloran

Journal of South Carolina Water Resources

Prediction of sea level rise (SLR) in response to climate change has been the focus of worldwide research, most focusing on the impact by human development. The research has been limited to estuaries and tidal rivers near harbors dealing with the hydrodynamics of reversing tidal flows. This article focuses on the Waccamaw River National Wildlife Refuge in coastal South Carolina where freshwater unidirectional flow is common. We examined the record of water levels in the Waccamaw and Pee Dee Rivers over the period 2007–2019 and the length of record of the United States Geographical Survey (USGS) gauge at Pawleys Island …

Road Accessibility From County Seat Under Flooding: Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, Southside, Molly Mitchell, Jessica Hendricks, Daniel Schatt, Marcia Berman

Data

The impacts of recurrent flooding on roadways present challenging social and economic considerations for all coastal jurisdictions. Maintenance, public and private accessibility, evacuation routes, and emergency services are just a few of the common themes local governments are beginning to address for low-lying roadways currently known to flood. The project implements a protocol developed by CCRM to analyze the level at which road flooding may impact communities and their ability to reach key locations at periodic intervals; through the year 2100 in coastal Virginia. Using a network analysis, road accessibility is evaluated at different levels of flooding (at 0.1 meter …

Mobilizing Regional Action: Insights From The San Diego Region Coastal Resilience Roadmap, Darbi Berry, Civicwell, Sdrcc

San Diego Regional Climate Collaborative

This case study details the process of developing the San Diego Region Coastal Resilience Roadmap with particular attention to how this process can be replicated in other regions throughout California – for coastal resilience, as well as other climate impacts and community priorities.

Anticipating And Adapting To The Impacts Of Climate Change On Low Elevation Coastal Zone (Lecz) Communities, Lynn Donelson Wright, Thomas Allen, Kiki Caruson, Alain Hénaff, Jaia Syvitski

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

[Scholarcy Abstract] The rates of sea level rise in coastal Virginia and the Chesapeake Bay significantly exceed the global rate and weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation adds to the annual rates.

The original vision was to enhance future resilience of Low-Elevation Coastal Zone communities by advancing understandings and approaches to better anticipate and mitigate hazards to human health, safety and welfare and reduce deleterious impacts to coastal residents and industries. The goal of the thematic Research Topic has been to assemble interdisciplinary papers that contribute to better understanding of the couplings among physical, ecological, socioeconomic, management and policy …

Climate Change And The Specter Of Statelessness, Mark P. Nevitt

Faculty Articles

What happens when climate change extinguishes entire nations? Neither international nor environmental law has provided a satisfactory answer to this weighty question. Climate change-induced flooding, storm surge, and sea level rise threaten the territorial integrity and habitability of several small island developing states, raising the specter of statelessness. We know that climate catastrophe is coming, but we have failed to take the necessary steps to safeguard several developing nations. This Article argues that innovative legal and policy solutions are needed today to prevent nation extinction tomorrow. I focus on two potential international governance solutions: the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate …

Five Years Measuring The Muck: Evaluating Interannual Variability Of Nutrient Loads From Tidal Flooding, Alfonso Macías-Tapia, Margaret R. Mulholland, Corday R. Selden, J. Derek Loftis, Peter W. Bernhardt

OES Faculty Publications

Due to sea level rise, tidal flooding is now common in low-lying coastal systems around the world. Yet, the contribution of tidal flooding to non-point source nutrient loads and their impact on the quality of adjacent waters remains poorly constrained. Here, we quantified dissolved nutrient loading and Enterococcus abundance during annual autumnal king tides (i.e., perigean spring tides), between 2017 and 2021, in a sub-watershed of the lower Chesapeake Bay. To calculate nutrient loading from tidal flooding, we used geospatial inundation depths from a street-level hydrodynamic model to estimate floodwater volumes during each of the five sampling events and the …

Increasing Use Of Natural And Nature-Based Features To Build Resilience To Storm-Driven Flooding, Final Report, Center For Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science, Pamela Mason, Jessica Hendricks, Julie Herman, Karen Duhring, Carl Hershner

Reports

In coastal Virginia today, local governments are dealing with recurrent flooding driven by coastal storms, exacerbated by rising sea level and increased frequency of intense rain events. At the same time, they are confronted with increasing demands on limited resources to address issues coastal flooding in concert with water quality, wetlands management, shoreline erosion, habitat, and community needs such as infrastructure, flood insurance and open space. One solution is to maximize the protection of existing and implement new natural and nature-based features (NNBFs) to capitalize on the provision of multiple benefits to address many of these coastal issues.

There are …

Sea Level Rise Estimation On The Pacific Coast From Southern California To Vancouver Island, Xiaoxing He, Jean-Philippe Montillet, Rui Fernandes, Timothy I. Melbourne, Weiping Jiang, Zhengkai Huang

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

Previous studies have estimated the sea level rise (SLR) at various locations on the west coast of the USA and Vancouver Island in Canada. Here, we construct an entire SLR profile from Vancouver Island in the Pacific Northwest to San Diego in Southern California. First, we process global navigation satellite system (GNSS) measurements at 405 stations blanketing the whole coast to generate a profile of vertical land motion (VLM) known to bias century-long tide gauge (TG) measurements recording relative SLR (RSLR). We are then able to estimate the absolute SLR (ASLR) by correcting the SLR with the VLM. Our study …

A Demonstration Of A Simple Methodology Of Flood Prediction For A Coastal City Under Threat Of Sea Level Rise: The Case Of Norfolk, Va, Usa, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Many coastal cities around the world are at risk of increased flooding due to sea level rise (SLR), so here a simple flood prediction method is demonstrated for one city at risk, Norfolk, VA, on the U.S. East Coast. The probability of future flooding is estimated by extending observed hourly water level for 1927–2021 into hourly estimates until 2100. Unlike most other flood prediction methods, the approach here does not use any predetermined probability distribution function of extreme events, and instead a random sampling of past data represents tides and storm surges. The probability of flooding for 3 different flood …

Upland Migration Of Coastal Marshes As A Response To Sea Level Rise And Fire Management: Past, Present, And Predicted, Devin Jen

Master's Theses

Coastal marshes are one of the most productive and intensively used ecosystems in the world. However, they are under threat due to natural and anthropogenic stressors, such as sea level rise (SLR). SLR can cause marshes to drown, converting them to open water. Marshes can respond to SLR through landward migration when suitable habitat is available. My research focuses on the landward migration pattern and mechanisms. I evaluated the historical land cover changes at the Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve and the Pascagoula River delta over two-time intervals since 1955 and focused on the forest-marsh dynamics. I found that …

Destruction Is A Must-See: Coastal Heritage Site Erosion And Public Perception Of Climate Change, Haley Borowy

Senior Theses

Archaeological sites in South Carolina are vanishing. As sea level rise, and therefore coastal erosion, worsen, more sites will disappear. The questions of how erosion at these sites is measured and how the public perceives the effects of climate change have been studied separately, but not together. Here, the intersection of these is discussed, alongside how sites are portrayed affects how the public perceives them, and therefore their importance. Studies on measuring coastal erosion, local news reports, government documents, and public perception of coastal management and sea level rise illuminate how people eventually decide what is worth saving.

Marsh Vulnerability Index And Index Applied To Coastal Shorelines, Molly Mitchell, Donna Marie Bilkovic, Julie Herman, Jessica Hendricks, Evan Hill

Data

The Marsh Vulnerability Index (MVI) is a spatially-resolved assessment of Virginia tidal marsh vulnerabilities from important climate-change drivers – erosion vulnerability, inundation from sea level rise, and salinity intrusion from sea level rise – that can support management decisions. Effects were evaluated for two time-steps (near and longer-term planning horizons): 2050 and 2100.

The Marsh Vulnerability Index Applied to Coastal Shorelines layer extends the MVI evaluation for use in evaluating living shoreline (i.e., created or enhanced shoreline marshes) vulnerability and applies it to tidal shorelines in coastal Virginia. Outputs from this analysis were intended to evaluate the vulnerability of areas …

Coastal Virginia Flooding Duration Maps Current And Projected For 2020, 2050 And 2100, Molly Mitchell, Daniel Schatt, Jessica Hendricks

Data

Geospatial layers displaying annual flooding duration in the coastal zone of Virginia. These were generated from publicly available historical hourly tidal data from the NOAA Tides and Currents website from various tide gauges in the Chesapeake Bay region for the last 20 years. Particular tide gauges were linked to specific localities depending on location. The data was processed to determine average annual flooding duration at various flooding levels. Flood levels corresponding to specified average annual duration levels were then determined and used with lidar-derived digital elevation models to extract flood areas corresponding to the specified ranges of flood duration. Specifically, …

Vims Marsh Migration Final Report + Metadata Sheets, Molly Mitchell, Karinna Nunez, Christine Tombleson, Julie Herman

Reports

Coastal marsh loss is a significant issue globally, due in part to rising sea levels and high levels of coastal human activity. Marshes have natural mechanisms to allow them to adapt to rising sea levels, however, migration across the landscape is one of those mechanisms and is frequently in conflict with human use of the shoreline. Ensuring the persistence of marshes into the future requires an understanding of where marshes are likely to migrate under sea level rise and targeting those areas for conservation and preservation activities. The goal of this project was to 1) compile existing datasets and information …

Effects Of Tidal Flooding On Estuarine Biogeochemistry: Quantifying Flood-Driven Nitrogen Inputs In An Urban, Lower Chesapeake Bay Sub-Tributary, Alfonso Macías-Tapia, Margaret R. Mulholland, Corday R. Selden, Jon Derek Loftis, Peter W. Bernhardt

VIMS Articles

Sea level rise has increased the frequency of tidal flooding even without accompanying precipitation in many coastal areas worldwide. As the tide rises, inundates the landscape, and then recedes, it can transport organic and inorganic matter between terrestrial systems and adjacent aquatic environments. However, the chemical and biological effects of tidal flooding on urban estuarine systems remain poorly constrained. Here, we provide the first extensive quantification of floodwater nutrient concentrations during a tidal flooding event and estimate the nitrogen (N) loading to the Lafayette River, an urban tidal sub-tributary of the lower Chesapeake Bay (USA). To enable the scale of …

Coastal Natural And Nature-Based Features (Nnbfs) Ranked: Co-Benefits For Coastal Buildings And Target Areas For The Creation Of New Or Restoration Of Nnbfs In Coastal Virginia, Pamela Mason, Jessica Hendricks, Julie Herman

Data

Community resilience to storm-driven coastal flooding is improved with the presence of natural and nature-based features (NNBFs) such as wetlands, wooded areas, living shorelines, and beaches. These natural and created features can provide multiple benefits for a local community, including mitigating the impacts of storm surge and sea-level rise and allowing communities to take advantage of programmatic incentive programs like FEMA’s Community Rating System and nutrient reduction crediting.

As part of a NOAA-funded project NA17NOS4730142, an exportable geospatial protocol and NNBF ranking methodology was developed with the goal of incentivizing the protection and creation of NNBFs across Chesapeake Bay localities …

Road Accessibility From County Seat Under Flooding: Hampton, Newport News, James City, Poquoson, Williamsburg, York, Accomack, Northampton, Alexandria, Fairfax, Gloucester, Mathews, Middlesex, Molly Mitchell, Jessica Hendricks, Daniel Schatt, Marcia Berman

Data

The impacts of recurrent flooding on roadways present challenging social and economic considerations for all coastal jurisdictions. Maintenance, public and private accessibility, evacuation routes, and emergency services are just a few of the common themes local governments are beginning to address for low-lying roadways currently known to flood. The project implements a protocol developed by CCRM to analyze the level at which road flooding may impact communities and their ability to reach key locations at periodic intervals; through the year 2100 in coastal Virginia. Using a network analysis, road accessibility is evaluated at different levels of flooding (at 0.1 meter …

Physical Vulnerability Index, Karinna Nunez, Molly Mitchell, Alexander Renaud

Data

The Center for Coastal Resources Management at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science has developed a Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) for the Chesapeake Bay region. PVI provides a broad perspective on the vulnerability of the Tidewater region, creating a composite measure of general flood impact rather than the threat of any one particular storm track. While there have been a number of efforts to categorize physical risk, the analysis behind this physical vulnerability index allows for application at a variety of scales, such as the county or US Census tract level. Calculating physical risk for geopolitically defined boundaries generates values …

Impact Assessment And Management Challenges Of Key Rural Human Health Infrastructure Under Sea Level Rise, Molly Mitchell, Robert Isdell, Julie Herman, Christine Tombleson

VIMS Articles

Accelerating sea level rise in Virginia, United States, will significantly increase the flooding threat to low-lying roads, residences, and critical infrastructure as well as raise the water table, allowing saltwater intrusion into well water and threatening the function of septic fields. Although most of the adaptation work in Virginia has focused on urban economic centers, the majority of the coastline is rural and faces different threats and opportunities to address them compared to urban areas due to their reduced economic assets and their reliance on private infrastructure. In this case study, we assess the potential for geospatially quantifying impact to …

End-To-End Modeling Reveals Species-Specific Effects Of Large-Scale Coastal Restoration On Living Resources Facing Climate Change, Kim De Mutsert, Kristy A. Lewis, Eric D. White, Joe Buszowski

Faculty Publications

Coastal erosion and wetland loss are affecting Louisiana to such an extent that the loss of land between 1932 and 2016 was close to 5,000 km². To mitigate this decline, coastal protection and restoration projects are being planned and implemented by the State of Louisiana, United States. The Louisiana Coastal Master Plan (CMP) is an adaptive management approach that provides a suite of projects that are predicted to build or maintain land and protect coastal communities. Restoring the coast with this 50-year large-scale restoration and risk reduction plan has the potential to change the biomass and distribution of …

Migration Of The Tidal Marsh Range Under Sea Level Rise For Coastal Virginia, With Land Cover Data, Julie Herman, Molly Mitchell

Data

The layers in this geodatabase were intended to represent the land that is encompassed by the average tidal range as sea level rises in the Virginia coastal region, including Chesapeake Bay and tributaries, the Atlantic Ocean side of the Eastern Shore, and Virginia Beach. The data layers in this geodatabase represent each two foot range of elevation incremented by 0.5 ft (e.g. 0-2 ft, 0.5-2.5 ft, 1-3 ft, etc.) with the current land cover that exists in that range.

ArcGIS metadata is included in the geodatabase.

Further details are provided in the Geodatabase Information file located from the download tab.

Anticipating And Adapting To The Future Impacts Of Climate Change On The Health, Security And Welfare Of Low Elevation Coastal Zone (Lecz) Communities In Southeastern Usa, Thomas Allen, Joshua Behr, Anamaria Bukvic, Ryan S.D. Calder, Kiki Caruson, Charles Connor, Christopher D'Elia, David Dismukes, Robin Ersing, Rima Franklin, Jesse Goldstein, Jonathon Goodall, Scott Hemmerling, Jennifer Irish, Steven Lazarus, Derek Loftis, Mark Luther, Leigh Mccallister, Karen Mcglathery, Molly Mitchell, William Moore, Charles Reid Nichols, Karinna Nunez, Matthew Reidenbach, Julie Shortridge, Robert Weisberg, Robert Weiss, Lynn Donelson Wright, Meng Xia, Kehui Xu, Donald Young, Gary Zarillo, Julie C. Zinnert

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) are extensive throughout the southeastern United States. LECZ communities are threatened by inundation from sea level rise, storm surge, wetland degradation, land subsidence, and hydrological flooding. Communication among scientists, stakeholders, policy makers and minority and poor residents must improve. We must predict processes spanning the ecological, physical, social, and health sciences. Communities need to address linkages of (1) human and socioeconomic vulnerabilities; (2) public health and safety; (3) economic concerns; (4) land loss; (5) wetland threats; and (6) coastal inundation. Essential capabilities must include a network to assemble and distribute data and model code to …

Modeling Vegetation Effects On Barrier Island Evolution, Eric W. Schoen

Theses and Dissertations

Barrier islands play a significant role in protecting coastlines and harboring coastal habitats. In an effort to study and better understand the evolution of barrier island systems, a cellular model capturing various meteorological and environmental processes is proposed. Erosion due to wind, gravity, and marine processes are coupled with plant population effects. We demonstrate the inhibition of plant cover on sediment mobility, island migration, and erosion in the presence of sea level rise.

The Role Of Traditional Knowledge In Coastal Adaptation Priorities: The Pamunkey Indian Reservation, Nicole S. Hutton, Thomas R. Allen

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Coastal reservations are increasingly vulnerable to hazards exacerbated by climate change. Resources for restoration projects are limited. Storm surge, storms, tidal flooding, and erosion endanger artifacts and limit livelihoods of tribes in coastal Virginia. GIS offers a platform to increase communication between scientists, planners, and indigenous groups. The Pamunkey Indian Tribe engaged in a participatory mapping exercise to assess the role of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) in coastal management decision-making and its capacity to address flooding. Priorities and strategies were spatially referenced using maps of potential sea level rise for 2040, 2060, and 2080, input into a resilience matrix to …