Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Strategy Development To Enhance The Conservation And Adaptation Of Virginia Coastal Wetlands Under Climate Change, Molly Mitchell, Bryan Watts, Jessica Hendricks, Kory Angstadt, David Stanhope, Donna Marie Bilkovic, Pamela Mason

Reports

Project activities addressed four priority elements in Virginia’s approved state wetlands plan. The existing monitoring and assessment strategy will be strengthened through incorporation of new data on the habitat function of existing and newly migrated marsh. Field surveys (information acquisition) will enhance existing understanding of marsh habitat function under sea level rise; and together with a water quality potential assessment, will support the refinement of an existing, EPA funded, marsh vulnerability analysis for conservation planning. Web-based tools for planners and managers (e.g., WetCAT) will be extended to incorporate information useful in planning wetland protection.

Effects Of Tidal Flooding On Estuarine Biogeochemistry: Quantifying Flood-Driven Nitrogen Inputs In An Urban, Lower Chesapeake Bay Sub-Tributary, Alfonso Macías-Tapia, Margaret R. Mulholland, Corday R. Selden, Jon Derek Loftis, Peter W. Bernhardt

VIMS Articles

Sea level rise has increased the frequency of tidal flooding even without accompanying precipitation in many coastal areas worldwide. As the tide rises, inundates the landscape, and then recedes, it can transport organic and inorganic matter between terrestrial systems and adjacent aquatic environments. However, the chemical and biological effects of tidal flooding on urban estuarine systems remain poorly constrained. Here, we provide the first extensive quantification of floodwater nutrient concentrations during a tidal flooding event and estimate the nitrogen (N) loading to the Lafayette River, an urban tidal sub-tributary of the lower Chesapeake Bay (USA). To enable the scale of …

Physical Vulnerability Index, Karinna Nunez, Molly Mitchell, Alexander Renaud

Data

The Center for Coastal Resources Management at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science has developed a Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) for the Chesapeake Bay region. PVI provides a broad perspective on the vulnerability of the Tidewater region, creating a composite measure of general flood impact rather than the threat of any one particular storm track. While there have been a number of efforts to categorize physical risk, the analysis behind this physical vulnerability index allows for application at a variety of scales, such as the county or US Census tract level. Calculating physical risk for geopolitically defined boundaries generates values …

Road Accessibility From County Seat Under Flooding: Hampton, Newport News, James City, Poquoson, Williamsburg, York, Accomack, Northampton, Alexandria, Fairfax, Gloucester, Mathews, Middlesex, Molly Mitchell, Jessica Hendricks, Daniel Schatt, Marcia Berman

Data

The impacts of recurrent flooding on roadways present challenging social and economic considerations for all coastal jurisdictions. Maintenance, public and private accessibility, evacuation routes, and emergency services are just a few of the common themes local governments are beginning to address for low-lying roadways currently known to flood. The project implements a protocol developed by CCRM to analyze the level at which road flooding may impact communities and their ability to reach key locations at periodic intervals; through the year 2100 in coastal Virginia. Using a network analysis, road accessibility is evaluated at different levels of flooding (at 0.1 meter …

Coastal Natural And Nature-Based Features (Nnbfs) Ranked: Co-Benefits For Coastal Buildings And Target Areas For The Creation Of New Or Restoration Of Nnbfs In Coastal Virginia, Pamela Mason, Jessica Hendricks, Julie Herman

Data

Community resilience to storm-driven coastal flooding is improved with the presence of natural and nature-based features (NNBFs) such as wetlands, wooded areas, living shorelines, and beaches. These natural and created features can provide multiple benefits for a local community, including mitigating the impacts of storm surge and sea-level rise and allowing communities to take advantage of programmatic incentive programs like FEMA’s Community Rating System and nutrient reduction crediting.

As part of a NOAA-funded project NA17NOS4730142, an exportable geospatial protocol and NNBF ranking methodology was developed with the goal of incentivizing the protection and creation of NNBFs across Chesapeake Bay localities …

Impact Assessment And Management Challenges Of Key Rural Human Health Infrastructure Under Sea Level Rise, Molly Mitchell, Robert Isdell, Julie Herman, Christine Tombleson

VIMS Articles

Accelerating sea level rise in Virginia, United States, will significantly increase the flooding threat to low-lying roads, residences, and critical infrastructure as well as raise the water table, allowing saltwater intrusion into well water and threatening the function of septic fields. Although most of the adaptation work in Virginia has focused on urban economic centers, the majority of the coastline is rural and faces different threats and opportunities to address them compared to urban areas due to their reduced economic assets and their reliance on private infrastructure. In this case study, we assess the potential for geospatially quantifying impact to …

End-To-End Modeling Reveals Species-Specific Effects Of Large-Scale Coastal Restoration On Living Resources Facing Climate Change, Kim De Mutsert, Kristy A. Lewis, Eric D. White, Joe Buszowski

Faculty Publications

Coastal erosion and wetland loss are affecting Louisiana to such an extent that the loss of land between 1932 and 2016 was close to 5,000 km². To mitigate this decline, coastal protection and restoration projects are being planned and implemented by the State of Louisiana, United States. The Louisiana Coastal Master Plan (CMP) is an adaptive management approach that provides a suite of projects that are predicted to build or maintain land and protect coastal communities. Restoring the coast with this 50-year large-scale restoration and risk reduction plan has the potential to change the biomass and distribution of …

Migration Of The Tidal Marsh Range Under Sea Level Rise For Coastal Virginia, With Land Cover Data, Julie Herman, Molly Mitchell

Data

The layers in this geodatabase were intended to represent the land that is encompassed by the average tidal range as sea level rises in the Virginia coastal region, including Chesapeake Bay and tributaries, the Atlantic Ocean side of the Eastern Shore, and Virginia Beach. The data layers in this geodatabase represent each two foot range of elevation incremented by 0.5 ft (e.g. 0-2 ft, 0.5-2.5 ft, 1-3 ft, etc.) with the current land cover that exists in that range.

ArcGIS metadata is included in the geodatabase.

Further details are provided in the Geodatabase Information file located from the download tab.

Modeling Vegetation Effects On Barrier Island Evolution, Eric W. Schoen

Theses and Dissertations

Barrier islands play a significant role in protecting coastlines and harboring coastal habitats. In an effort to study and better understand the evolution of barrier island systems, a cellular model capturing various meteorological and environmental processes is proposed. Erosion due to wind, gravity, and marine processes are coupled with plant population effects. We demonstrate the inhibition of plant cover on sediment mobility, island migration, and erosion in the presence of sea level rise.

Anticipating And Adapting To The Future Impacts Of Climate Change On The Health, Security And Welfare Of Low Elevation Coastal Zone (Lecz) Communities In Southeastern Usa, Thomas Allen, Joshua Behr, Anamaria Bukvic, Ryan S.D. Calder, Kiki Caruson, Charles Connor, Christopher D'Elia, David Dismukes, Robin Ersing, Rima Franklin, Jesse Goldstein, Jonathon Goodall, Scott Hemmerling, Jennifer Irish, Steven Lazarus, Derek Loftis, Mark Luther, Leigh Mccallister, Karen Mcglathery, Molly Mitchell, William Moore, Charles Reid Nichols, Karinna Nunez, Matthew Reidenbach, Julie Shortridge, Robert Weisberg, Robert Weiss, Lynn Donelson Wright, Meng Xia, Kehui Xu, Donald Young, Gary Zarillo, Julie C. Zinnert

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) are extensive throughout the southeastern United States. LECZ communities are threatened by inundation from sea level rise, storm surge, wetland degradation, land subsidence, and hydrological flooding. Communication among scientists, stakeholders, policy makers and minority and poor residents must improve. We must predict processes spanning the ecological, physical, social, and health sciences. Communities need to address linkages of (1) human and socioeconomic vulnerabilities; (2) public health and safety; (3) economic concerns; (4) land loss; (5) wetland threats; and (6) coastal inundation. Essential capabilities must include a network to assemble and distribute data and model code to …