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Environmental Sciences

2016

Climate change

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Articles 1 - 30 of 64

Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Impacts Of Long-Term Precipitation Manipulation On Hydraulic Architecture, Xylem Function, And Canopy Status In A Piñon-Juniper Woodland, Patrick J. Hudson Dec 2016

Impacts Of Long-Term Precipitation Manipulation On Hydraulic Architecture, Xylem Function, And Canopy Status In A Piñon-Juniper Woodland, Patrick J. Hudson

Biology ETDs

The Southwestern US is predicted to become hotter and drier, as global climate change forces increasing temperatures and variability in timing and size of precipitation inputs. Drought stress has become more frequent in recent decades, and resulted in massive forest mortality in piñon-juniper woodlands. During recent severe droughts (2000-2003, 2009-2012), piñon pine (Pinus edulis Englem.) suffered disproportionately high mortality compared to co-occurring one-seed juniper (Juniperus monosperma [Engelm.] Sarg.). A large-scale precipitation manipulation experiment was established in a piñon-juniper woodland in central New Mexico to test hypotheses regarding tree survival and mortality with respect to altered water regimes. Our …


Sea Surface Temperature Rises Shift Migration Patterns Due To Ecosystem Changes, Alexia Skrbic, Hesham El-Askary Dec 2016

Sea Surface Temperature Rises Shift Migration Patterns Due To Ecosystem Changes, Alexia Skrbic, Hesham El-Askary

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

The continuing climate change is negatively impacting ecosystems, specifically oceans which are declining and food webs are being altered by the increase of greenhouse gases. The increase of the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is increasing sea surface temperature of the world’s oceans. Certain organisms lower on the food chain like phytoplankton and zooplankton are directly affected by the warming which alters how they process nutrients and their productivity. The limited amount of these primary producers in the oceans and specifically the location they inhabit directly affects all the organisms above them on the food chain. Several marine animals …


Reducing Emissions From Agriculture To Meet The 2 °C Target, Eva Wollenberg, Meryl Richards, Pete Smith, Petr Havlík, Michael Obersteiner, Francesco N. Tubiello, Martin Herold, Pierre Gerber, Sarah Carter, Andrew Reisinger, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Amy Dickie, Henry Neufeldt, Björn O. Sander, Reiner Wassmann, Rolf Sommer, James E. Amonette, Alessandra Falcucci, Mario Herrero, Carolyn Opio, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Elke Stehfest, Henk Westhoek, Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Tek Sapkota, Mariana C. Rufino, Philip K. Thornton, Louis Verchot, Paul C. West, Jean François Soussana, Tobias Baedeker Dec 2016

Reducing Emissions From Agriculture To Meet The 2 °C Target, Eva Wollenberg, Meryl Richards, Pete Smith, Petr Havlík, Michael Obersteiner, Francesco N. Tubiello, Martin Herold, Pierre Gerber, Sarah Carter, Andrew Reisinger, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Amy Dickie, Henry Neufeldt, Björn O. Sander, Reiner Wassmann, Rolf Sommer, James E. Amonette, Alessandra Falcucci, Mario Herrero, Carolyn Opio, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Elke Stehfest, Henk Westhoek, Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Tek Sapkota, Mariana C. Rufino, Philip K. Thornton, Louis Verchot, Paul C. West, Jean François Soussana, Tobias Baedeker

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e yr−1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, …


Seasonal Glacial Meltwater Contributions To Surface Water In The Bolivian Andes: A Case Study Using Environmental Tracers, Zack Guido, Jennifer C. Mcintosh, Shirley A. Papuga, Thomas Meixner Oct 2016

Seasonal Glacial Meltwater Contributions To Surface Water In The Bolivian Andes: A Case Study Using Environmental Tracers, Zack Guido, Jennifer C. Mcintosh, Shirley A. Papuga, Thomas Meixner

Environmental Science and Geology Faculty Research Publications

Study region: The Cordoriri watershed and vicinity in the Cordillera Real, Bolivia, South America

Study focus: Recent warming has contributed to substantial reductions in glaciers in many regions around the globe. Melting of these glaciers alters the timing and magnitude of stream flows and diminishes water resources accumulated in past climates. These changes are especially acute in regions with small glaciers and problematic for populations relying on surface water. In Bolivia, most glaciers are less than 0.5 km2 and about 2 million people draw water in part from glacier-fed watersheds. Sparse monitoring, however, has limited estimates of …


Agenda: Winter, Wilderness & Climate: Threats & Solutions, University Of Colorado Boulder. Getches-Wilkinson Center For Natural Resources, Energy, And The Environment, The Wilderness Society, Protect Our Winters Oct 2016

Agenda: Winter, Wilderness & Climate: Threats & Solutions, University Of Colorado Boulder. Getches-Wilkinson Center For Natural Resources, Energy, And The Environment, The Wilderness Society, Protect Our Winters

Winter, Wilderness, and Climate--Threats and Solutions (October 12)

In partnership with the Getches-Wilkinson Center, join The Wilderness Society and Protect Our Winters for an interactive presentation about energy development and climate impacts on public lands.

This event was held on Wednesday, October 12, 2016, 5:30 - 7:30 p.m., in the University of Colorado Law School, Wolf Law Building, Wittemyer Courtroom.


Slides: Winter, Wilderness & Climate: Threats & Solutions, Jim Ramey, Lindsay Bourgoine Oct 2016

Slides: Winter, Wilderness & Climate: Threats & Solutions, Jim Ramey, Lindsay Bourgoine

Winter, Wilderness, and Climate--Threats and Solutions (October 12)

Presenters:

Jim Ramey, The Wilderness Society

Lindsay Bourgoine, Protect Our Winters

56 slides


Biophysical And Hydrological Effects Of Future Climate Change Including Trends In Co2, In The St. Joseph River Watershed, Eastern Corn Belt, Ruoyu Wang Sep 2016

Biophysical And Hydrological Effects Of Future Climate Change Including Trends In Co2, In The St. Joseph River Watershed, Eastern Corn Belt, Ruoyu Wang

Ruoyu Wang

Future climate change has the potential to significantly impact crop growth, both directly due to CO2 enhancement and indirectly, through temperature and moisture impacts. This work investigates the biophysical and hydrological effects of future climate change, including trends in CO2, in the St. Joseph River watershed, Eastern Corn Belt. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was first modified to take dynamic CO2 concentration as input. A regional crop leaf development curve from Landsat TM imagery was also used to adjust model performance in corn leaf area development for the historical period. A multi-objective calibration strategy was …


Century-Long Increasing Trend And Variability Of Dissolved Organic Carbon Export From The Mississippi River Basin Driven By Natural And Anthropogenic Forcing, Wei Ren, Hanqin Tian, Wei-Jun Cai, Steven E. Lohrenz, Charles S. Hopkinson, Wei-Jen Huang, Jia Yang, Bo Tao, Shufen Pan, Ruoying He Sep 2016

Century-Long Increasing Trend And Variability Of Dissolved Organic Carbon Export From The Mississippi River Basin Driven By Natural And Anthropogenic Forcing, Wei Ren, Hanqin Tian, Wei-Jun Cai, Steven E. Lohrenz, Charles S. Hopkinson, Wei-Jen Huang, Jia Yang, Bo Tao, Shufen Pan, Ruoying He

Plant and Soil Sciences Faculty Publications

There has been considerable debate as to how natural forcing and anthropogenic activities alter the timing and magnitude of the delivery of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to the coastal ocean, which has ramifications for the ocean carbon budget, land-ocean interactions, and coastal life. Here we present an analysis of DOC export from the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico during 1901–2010 as influenced by changes in climate, land use and management practices, atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition, through the integration of observational data with a coupled hydrologic/biogeochemical land model. Model simulations show that DOC export in the …


Mapping Temperate Vegetation Climate Adaptation Variability Using Normalized Land Surface Phenology, Liang Liang, Mark D. Schwartz, Xiaoyang Zhang Sep 2016

Mapping Temperate Vegetation Climate Adaptation Variability Using Normalized Land Surface Phenology, Liang Liang, Mark D. Schwartz, Xiaoyang Zhang

Xiaoyang Zhang

Climate influences geographic differences of vegetation phenology through both contemporary and historical variability. The latter effect is embodied in vegetation heterogeneity underlain by spatially varied genotype and species compositions tied to climatic adaptation. Such long-term climatic effects are difficult to map and therefore often neglected in evaluating spatially explicit phenological responses to climate change. In this study we demonstrate a way to indirectly infer the portion of land surface phenology variation that is potentially contributed by underlying genotypic differences across space. The method undertaken normalized remotely sensed vegetation start-of-season (or greenup onset) with a cloned plants-based phenological model. As the …


Icelandic Fisheries: Scenario Planning For Climate Change, Tara Sorrels Sep 2016

Icelandic Fisheries: Scenario Planning For Climate Change, Tara Sorrels

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

This study aimed to develop an understanding of how a scenario planning process could be used to assist businesses to adapt to climate change. The focus of this study was on the Icelandic fishing industry since Iceland is experiencing firsthand climate change impacts. Mitigation strategies are the main focus in climate change research, but this study focused on a possible adaptation method that requires changing management practices in order to reduce the impact of climate change on the economy. Tours of Icelandic fisheries and interviews with individuals within the Icelandic fishing industry were conducted to assess the current adaptive capacity …


Using Photovoice To Understand Climate Change Adaptation In Rural Ontario, Kylie Hissa Sep 2016

Using Photovoice To Understand Climate Change Adaptation In Rural Ontario, Kylie Hissa

Geography and Environmental Studies Major Research Papers

The examination of community adaptation and resilience approaches to address the threats of climate change in rural Ontario is becoming increasingly important in emergency management and preparedness. Community engagement becomes critical in this regard, as local experiences partly influence perceptions of climate change risks within municipalities. Photovoice is a community-based participatory research methodology that empowers participants to document their perceptions and understandings of a particular issue through the use of visual images. This technique was undertaken to understand the impacts of the F3 tornado that hit the community of Goderich, Ontario in 2011 and capture their member’s perceptions on disaster …


The International Whaling Commission—Beyond Whaling, Andrew J. Wright, Mark P. Simmonds, Barbara Galletti Vernazzani Aug 2016

The International Whaling Commission—Beyond Whaling, Andrew J. Wright, Mark P. Simmonds, Barbara Galletti Vernazzani

Environment and Nature Conservation Collection

Since its establishment in 1946 as the international body intended to manage whaling, the International Whaling Commission (IWC) has expanded its areas of interest to ensure the wider conservation of whales. Several key conservation topics have been taken forward under its auspices including climate change, chemical and noise pollution, marine debris and whale watching. Work on each of these topics at the IWC has grown substantially since the 1990s and remains ongoing. Important developments were the establishment of the Standing Working Group on Environmental Concerns in 1996 and the IWC’s Conservation Committee in 2003. Trying to address this diverse set …


Electricity Generation, Electricity Consumption, And Energy Efficiency In The United States: A Dual Climatic-Behavioral Approach, Christopher A. Craig Aug 2016

Electricity Generation, Electricity Consumption, And Energy Efficiency In The United States: A Dual Climatic-Behavioral Approach, Christopher A. Craig

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Much of the United States (US) has seen an increase in warm days, decrease in cool days, and increase in extreme weather events. These trends are projected to continue across much of the US and in turn increase the demand for electricity and subsequent greenhouse gas emissions. Ambitious energy efficiency (EE) programs are used across the US by energy utility organizations to reduce electricity demand and emissions. This study examined the impact of climatic variability on electricity consumption, as well as how pro-conservation interventions such as EE programs and experiential learning can be utilized to mitigate residential electricity consumption and …


Combinatory Effect Of Changing Co2, Temperature, And Long-Term Growth Temperature On Isoprene Emissions, Michael Cole Jul 2016

Combinatory Effect Of Changing Co2, Temperature, And Long-Term Growth Temperature On Isoprene Emissions, Michael Cole

DePaul Discoveries

Isoprene, the most abundant hydrocarbon in the atmosphere, plays a significant role in atmospheric chemistry. Its reactions with NOx lead to the formation of ozone in the lower troposphere, which is harmful to plants and detrimental to human health. As air temperatures and CO2 concentrations increase with climate change, it is uncertain how isoprene emissions from plants will respond. We hypothesized that isoprene emissions will increase with the combination of increasing temperature and CO­2 concentrations. We predict that oaks grown at a higher temperature will exhibit an increase in isoprene emissions with combined short-term increases in temperature …


Monitoring And Mitigation Of Elevated Co2 Impacts Using Microalgae, Terry-Rene Wiesner Brown Jul 2016

Monitoring And Mitigation Of Elevated Co2 Impacts Using Microalgae, Terry-Rene Wiesner Brown

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Climate change is arguably the greatest environmental and economic challenge of our time. There are considerable documented and projected impacts to both human and natural systems as a result of climate change. These impacts include changes in temperature, sea level, precipitation patterns, and biogeography of ecologically and economically relevant species, including pathogens. One of the main drivers of climate change is elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas. Since pre-industrial times, atmospheric CO2 levels have increased from approximately 280 ppm to over 400 ppm, as a result of fossil fuel combustion, cement production and …


Linking In-Situ Data With Remote Sensing To Analyze Tropical Glacier Stability And Retreat In The Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Chandler H. Santos Jul 2016

Linking In-Situ Data With Remote Sensing To Analyze Tropical Glacier Stability And Retreat In The Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Chandler H. Santos

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Glaciers are a major source of freshwater around the world, but they are melting at an increased rate due to atmospheric warming resulting from anthropogenic climate change. In addition to temperature increases, light-absorbing particulates on glaciers also are contributing to glacial melt. This research examines how black carbon, released into the air through partial combustion of biofuels, is affecting the surface albedo of glaciers. I also delineate possible sources of black carbon in the Cordillera Blanca region of Peru. Ground data were collected each year from 2011 to 2013 during the local dry season. Effective black carbon (eBC) values were …


Climate-Ready Agriculture: A Situation Statement For Western Australia, Robert Anthony Sudmeyer, Anne Bennett, Melanie Strawbridge Jul 2016

Climate-Ready Agriculture: A Situation Statement For Western Australia, Robert Anthony Sudmeyer, Anne Bennett, Melanie Strawbridge

Bulletins 4000 -

Projected future changes in the state’s climate will present new challenges for our producers. The Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia (DAFWA) continues to work with agricultural industries to lay solid foundations for an agricultural sector that has a range of response options.

This situation statement provides an assessment of how climate-ready the state’s agricultural sectors are and provides guidance for investment priorities for DAFWA for the period 2015–2020.


A Spatio-Temporal Comparison Of Avian Migration Phenology Using Citizen Science Data, Ali Arab, Jason R. Courter, Jessica Zelt Jun 2016

A Spatio-Temporal Comparison Of Avian Migration Phenology Using Citizen Science Data, Ali Arab, Jason R. Courter, Jessica Zelt

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The effects of climate change have wide-ranging impacts on wildlife species and recent studies indicate that birds’ spring arrival dates are advancing in response to changes in global climates. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal approach for comparing avian first arrival data for multiple species. As an example, we analyze spring arrival data for two long-distance migrants (Rubythroated Hummingbird Archilochus colubris; and Purple Martin Progne subis) in eastern North America from 2001–2010 using Citizen Science data. The proposed approach provides researchers with a tool to compare mean arrival dates while accounting for spatial and temporal variability. Our results show …


Analyzing Spatial Variability Of Social Preference For The Everglades Restoration In The Face Of Climate Change, Abu Hena Mustafa Kamal Sikder Jun 2016

Analyzing Spatial Variability Of Social Preference For The Everglades Restoration In The Face Of Climate Change, Abu Hena Mustafa Kamal Sikder

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The South Florida Everglades is a unique ecosystem. Intensive water management in the system has facilitated agricultural, urban, and economic development. The Everglades offers a variety of ecosystem services (ES) to the people living in this region. Nevertheless, the ecosystem is under imminent threat of climate change, which would alter the way water is managed today and ultimately affect the ES offered by the system. On the other hand, substantial restoration is underway that aims to restore the Everglades closer to its historic condition. This research tried to map the public’s preference for Everglades restoration. Using a geocoded discrete-choice survey …


Agenda: Coping With Water Scarcity In River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned From Shared Experiences, University Of Colorado Boulder. Getches-Wilkinson Center For Natural Resources, Energy, And The Environment Jun 2016

Agenda: Coping With Water Scarcity In River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned From Shared Experiences, University Of Colorado Boulder. Getches-Wilkinson Center For Natural Resources, Energy, And The Environment

Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10)

Water scarcity is increasingly dominating headlines throughout the world. In the southwestern USA, the looming water shortages on the Colorado River system and the unprecedented drought in California are garnering the greatest attention. Similar stories of scarcity and crisis can be found across the globe, suggesting an opportunity for sharing lessons and innovations. For example, the Colorado River and Australia's Murray-Darling Basin likely can share many lessons, as both systems were over-allocated, feature multiple jurisdictions, face similar climatic risks and drought stresses, and struggle to balance human demands with environmental needs. In this conference we cast our net broadly, exploring …


Climate Ready Boston: Climate Change And Sea Level Rise Projections For Boston, The Boston Research Advisory Group Report, Ellen Douglas, Paul Kirshen, Robyn Hannigan, Rebecca Herst, Avery Palardy Jun 2016

Climate Ready Boston: Climate Change And Sea Level Rise Projections For Boston, The Boston Research Advisory Group Report, Ellen Douglas, Paul Kirshen, Robyn Hannigan, Rebecca Herst, Avery Palardy

School for the Environment Publications

This report summarizes the current understanding of the local factors that influence Boston’s future exposure to climate change risks. The following four risk factors were considered most relevant to Boston and are therefore evaluated in this report: sea-level rise, extreme precipitation, coastal storms and extreme temperatures. For each risk factor, a team of scientific experts, comprised of a team leader and three or more team members, was selected to evaluate and summarize the available information contained in both grey (reports, conference proceedings and the like) and peer-reviewed literature. Each team met independently between October 2015 and January 2016, and team …


Irrigated And Rainfed Crops Zea Mays L. (Maize) And Glycine Max (Soybean) Acting As A Source Or Sink For Atmospheric Warming At Mead, Nebraska, Jane A. Okalebo Dr., Kenneth G. Hubbard, Andy Suyker May 2016

Irrigated And Rainfed Crops Zea Mays L. (Maize) And Glycine Max (Soybean) Acting As A Source Or Sink For Atmospheric Warming At Mead, Nebraska, Jane A. Okalebo Dr., Kenneth G. Hubbard, Andy Suyker

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) influence the climate at a global and local scale. Using long term microclimate data (2002-2009, 2011-2012) from the Carbon Sequestration Project (CSP), Mead, NE, this study examines how crop selection and water management can mitigate heat in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming is dependent on the management of crop lands, and the amount and timing of rainfall during the growing season. Rainfed crops were found to heat the passing air. The irrigated maize crop was able to mitigate 20 to 62% of the sensible heat (H) compared to the rainfed maize counterpart, …


Investigation Of Climate Variability And Climate Change Impacts On Corn Yield In The Eastern Corn Belt, Usa, Ruoyu Wang May 2016

Investigation Of Climate Variability And Climate Change Impacts On Corn Yield In The Eastern Corn Belt, Usa, Ruoyu Wang

Open Access Dissertations

The increasing demand for both food and biofuels requires more corn production at global scale. However, current corn yield is not able to meet bio-ethanol demand without jeopardizing food security or intensifying and expanding corn cultivation. An alternative solution is to utilize cellulose and hemi-cellulose from perennial grasses to fulfill the increasing demand for biofuel energy. A watershed level scenario analysis is often applied to figure out a sustainable way to strike the balance between food and fuel demands, and maintain environment integrity. However, a solid modeling application requires a clear understanding of crop responses under various climate stresses. This …


Simulation Of Conservation Practice Effects On Water Quality Under Current And Future Climate Scenarios, Carlington W. Wallace May 2016

Simulation Of Conservation Practice Effects On Water Quality Under Current And Future Climate Scenarios, Carlington W. Wallace

Open Access Dissertations

Analysis of the effects of implementing different conservation practices, as well as increased levels of conservation practices under existing and projected future climate, will determine if current conservation practice recommendations will be sufficient to maintain soil and water resources. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to study four watersheds of different sizes (CCW = 680 km2, F34 = 183 km2, AXL = 42 km 2 and ALG = 20 km2) located in Northeastern Indiana. The overarching goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of various agricultural practices on runoff and agricultural chemical losses under current …


Mapping Temperate Vegetation Climate Adaptation Variability Using Normalized Land Surface Phenology, Liang Liang, Mark D. Schwartz, Xiaoyang Zhang Apr 2016

Mapping Temperate Vegetation Climate Adaptation Variability Using Normalized Land Surface Phenology, Liang Liang, Mark D. Schwartz, Xiaoyang Zhang

GSCE Faculty Publications

Climate influences geographic differences of vegetation phenology through both contemporary and historical variability. The latter effect is embodied in vegetation heterogeneity underlain by spatially varied genotype and species compositions tied to climatic adaptation. Such long-term climatic effects are difficult to map and therefore often neglected in evaluating spatially explicit phenological responses to climate change. In this study we demonstrate a way to indirectly infer the portion of land surface phenology variation that is potentially contributed by underlying genotypic differences across space. The method undertaken normalized remotely sensed vegetation start-of-season (or greenup onset) with a cloned plants-based phenological model. As the …


The Promise Of An Energy Tracker Curriculum For Promoting Home-School Connections And Youth Agency In Climate Action, Elizabeth M. Walsh, Derek Jenkins, Eugene Cordero Apr 2016

The Promise Of An Energy Tracker Curriculum For Promoting Home-School Connections And Youth Agency In Climate Action, Elizabeth M. Walsh, Derek Jenkins, Eugene Cordero

Faculty Research, Scholarly, and Creative Activity

Formal classroom learning experiences that support sustainable behaviors outside the classroom necessarily must bridge students’ home and school lives, as knowledge and practice learned in the classroom is implemented outside of school. To this end, we study the impact of the Green Ninja Energy Tracker curriculum, which uses students’ home energy data in the classroom to promote engagement in climate change and conservation behaviors. Data is drawn from class observations, a focus group, and pre- and post- surveys of a pilot implementation of this curriculum in a diverse 12th-grade Earth Science classroom at an alternative school. We investigate what factors …


Symbiont Type And Photophysiology Of Acropora Loripes And Platygyra Daedalea Under Future Scenarios Of Rising Ocean Temperatures And Pco2, Lauren Howe-Kerr Apr 2016

Symbiont Type And Photophysiology Of Acropora Loripes And Platygyra Daedalea Under Future Scenarios Of Rising Ocean Temperatures And Pco2, Lauren Howe-Kerr

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Coral cover is declining at an alarming rate, and it is estimated that 60% of reefs worldwide may be lost by 2030. Elevated seawater temperatures and ocean acidification are contributing to an increase in the frequency and severity of bleaching events. These events disrupt the symbiosis between corals and their photosynthetic dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium spp). Relatively little is known about the ability of corals to acclimatize to changing environmental conditions or whether the rate of climate change is too fast for corals to keep up, limiting the accuracy of future predictions for reef resilience. However, the ability of some coral species …


Ensemble Forecasts: Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts Based On A Model Ensemble, Hannah Aizenman, Michael D. Grossberg, Nir Y. Krakauer, Irina Gladkova Mar 2016

Ensemble Forecasts: Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts Based On A Model Ensemble, Hannah Aizenman, Michael D. Grossberg, Nir Y. Krakauer, Irina Gladkova

Publications and Research

Ensembles of general circulation model (GCM) integrations yield predictions for meteorological conditions in future months. Such predictions have implicit uncertainty resulting from model structure, parameter uncertainty, and fundamental randomness in the physical system. In this work, we build probabilistic models for long-term forecasts that include the GCM ensemble values as inputs but incorporate statistical correction of GCM biases and different treatments of uncertainty. Specifically, we present, and evaluate against observations, several versions of a probabilistic forecast for gridded air temperature 1 month ahead based on ensemble members of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 …


Intergovernmental Pilot Program, Ray Toll Mar 2016

Intergovernmental Pilot Program, Ray Toll

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

No abstract provided.


Iceland: Extreme Learning In The Land Of Fire And Ice, Jason Polk, Leslie North Feb 2016

Iceland: Extreme Learning In The Land Of Fire And Ice, Jason Polk, Leslie North

Leslie North

WKU Libraries kicked off the spring season of "Far Away Places" with Dr. Jason Polk and Dr. Leslie North, Asstant Professors from the Department of Geography and Geology at WKU, who talked about leading a study abroad group to Iceland in the summer of 2015. WKU Libraries kicks off the spring season of Far Away Places with Jason Polk and Leslie North, Asst. Professors from the Department of Geography and Geology at WKU, who will be talking about leading a study abroad group to Iceland in the summer of 2015. Dr. Polk and Dr. North co-taught this course with faculty …