Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Utahns' Perceptions Of Climate Change And Disaster Vulnerabilities, Mufti Nadimul Quamar Ahmed, Jennifer E. Givens, Peter D. Howe, Jessica D. Ulrich-Schad

Utah People and Environment Poll (UPEP)

Climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, making people more vulnerable in a variety of ways^1-2. It is essential to determine if individuals believe they are susceptible to the effects of climate change in order to develop effective adaptation strategies.

Climate change has contributed to extreme weather occurrences in Utah in recent years. For instance, in the summer of 2022, there was a severe or extreme drought in all of Utah's counties³. Health effects of drought vary with intensity⁴ and can cause climate related deaths directly and indirectly, such as by …

Opportunities And Challenges For Cooperative Extension Becoming A Major Actor In Climate Change Mitigation And Adaptation, Dakoeta R. Pinto

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Addressing climate change in the United States is an increasingly complex issue that requires social and technological changes throughout the country, which the Cooperative Extension System (Extension) can influence. Based at land-grant universities, their goals are to bring relevant science and innovation to the people of the United States. For a successful low-carbon transition, there are certain elements of society that must be influenced by innovators like Extension. Extension’s historical roots in agriculture prevail today with most of their programming focusing on this sector. However, there is a movement within Extension to expand their programmatic efforts to address more contemporary …

Getting The Dirt On Phosphorus Pollution In Mountain Lakes: Are Rising Soil Temperatures Contributing To Eutrophication In Mountain Watersheds?, Gordon O. Gianniny

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Mountain watersheds provide a critical supply of clean water to millions of people around the world. In recent years, evidence of a concerning trend has emerged in these watersheds: rising phosphorus (P) concentrations. P often acts as the limiting nutrient in mountain lake ecosystems, so increasing P availability in mountain lakes and streams has the potential to drastically increase algal growth in these systems. In extreme cases, increasing mountain lake P concentrations may even cause harmful algal blooms that degrade downstream water quality. While the implications of rising P concentrations in mountain lakes are serious, the cause driving this widespread …

Editorial: Mammalian Responses To Climate Change: From Organisms To Communities, Johan T. Du Toit, Robyn S. Hetem, M. Denise Dearing

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

Mammals have displayed spectacular evolutionary success ever since an asteroid impact caused the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event ~66 million years ago, when the non-avian dinosaurs disappeared. Now another mass extinction event is underway because of another major planetary disturbance, but this time it is directly caused by just one over-achieving species among all those mammals: Homo sapiens.

Melting Arctic Ice Exposes Possible Conflict For Us, China, Russia, Madeleine Alder

Research on Capitol Hill

USU senior Maddie, a Salt Lake City native, is an Honors student, Peak Summer Research Fellow, and USU Institute of Land, Water and Air intern. She studies Political Science. Maddie’s research dissects how rising temperatures and the resulting polar ice caps on our planet might impact international relations for the US. The opening of additional shipping lanes in previously-frozen waters could cause conflict between key actors. Maddie has been involved in research for nearly all of her undergrad degree, and says, “I love learning and I get excited to discover new connections between topics I am interested in. I like …

Understanding How Changes In Precipitation Intensity Will Affect Vegetation In The Western U.S., Cristina Chirvasa

Fall Student Research Symposium 2021

Precipitation events are becoming more intense as the atmosphere warms, but it remains unclear how precipitation intensification will affect plant growth in arid and semiarid ecosystems. There is conflicting evidence suggesting that larger precipitation events may either increase or decrease plant growth. Here, we report the growth responses of herbaceous and woody plants to experimental manipulations of precipitation intensity in a cold, semi-arid ecosystem in Utah, USA. In this experiment, precipitation was collected and redeposited as fewer, larger events with total annual precipitation kept constant across treatments. Results from the first two growing seasons revealed that more intense events ‘pushed’ …

Understanding The Effects Of Climate Change Via Disturbance On Pristine Arctic Lakes—Multitrophic Level Response And Recovery To A 12-Yr, Low-Level Fertilization Experiment, Phaedra Budy, Casey A. Pennock, Anne E. Giblin, Chris Luecke, Daniel L. White, George W. Kling

Watershed Sciences Student Research

Effects of climate change-driven disturbance on lake ecosystems can be subtle; indirect effects include increased nutrient loading that could impact ecosystem function. We designed a low-level fertilization experiment to mimic persistent, climate change-driven disturbances (deeper thaw, greater weathering, or thermokarst failure) delivering nutrients to arctic lakes. We measured responses of pelagic trophic levels over 12 yr in a fertilized deep lake with fish and a shallow fishless lake, compared to paired reference lakes, and monitored recovery for 6 yr. Relative to prefertilization in the deep lake, we observed a maximum pelagic response in chl a (+201%), dissolved oxygen (DO, −43%), …

Environmental Controls On Didymosphenia Geminata Bloom Formation, Lindsay Capito

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Climate change is causing rapid glacial recession and earlier snowmelt, which alter the physical and chemical properties of rivers. As a result, organisms at the base of the food web are responding in unforeseen ways. We use the nuisance algae D. geminata (Didymo) as a case study for how climate induced shifts in the timing of glacial and snowmelt runoff are affecting river ecosystems. We evaluated how shifts in the timing of nutrient concentrations and light availability affect nuisance blooms of Didymo in three complementary ways. These are, field studies across streams in various stages of glacial recession, weekly measurements …

Impacts Of Climate Change On Multiple Use Management Of Bureau Of Land Management Land In The Intermountain West, Usa, Elaine M. Brice, Brett A. Miller, Hongchao Zhang, Kirsten Goldstein, Scott N. Zimmer, Guenchik J. Grosklos, Patrick Belmont, Courtney G. Flint, Jennifer E. Givens, Peter B. Adler, Mark W. Brunson, Jordan W. Smith

Watershed Sciences Faculty Publications

Although natural resource managers are concerned about climate change, many are unable to adequately incorporate climate change science into their adaptation strategies or management plans, and are not always aware of or do not employ the most current scientific knowledge. One of the most prominent natural resource management agencies in the United States is the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which is tasked with managing over 248 million acres (>1 million km²) of public lands for multiple, often conflicting, uses. Climate change will affect the sustainability of many of these land uses and could further increase conflicts …

Spatial And Temporal Dynamics Of Human–Wildlife Conflicts In The Kenya Greater Tsavo Ecosystem, Joseph M. Mukeka, Joseph O. Ogutu, Erustus Kanga, Eivin Røskaft

Human–Wildlife Interactions

Biodiversity conservation in developing countries is faced with many and mounting challenges, including increasing human–wildlife conflicts (HWCs). In Africa and other developing countries, increasing HWCs, particularly those adjacent to protected areas, can adversely affect local stakeholder perceptions and support for conservation. We analyzed HWC reports for multiple wildlife species compiled >23 years (1995–2017) from the Greater Tsavo Ecosystem (GTE) in Kenya to determine HWC trends. The GTE is the largest protected area in Kenya, covering 22,681 km². Overall, 39,022 HWC incidents were reported in 6 GTE regions (i.e., Taveta, Mutomo, Kibwezi, Rombo, Galana, Bachuma). The 5 wildlife species …

Developing And Implementing A 100% Renewable Electricity Resolution: A Research-Based Framework, Emily E. Skill, Roslynn Brain Mccann, Sarah C. Klain

All Current Publications

While it may seem that the efforts of local governments have only a marginal impact on the global issue of climate change, local action can spread to generate large-scale change. Local action can inspire other communities to adopt policies, creating the potential to expand and form regional action on climate change. Furthermore, local policies can influence state and federal policies. This guide will walk you through a five-step framework that was developed from the results of a qualitative research study that explored how three Utah cities, Salt Lake City, Park City, and Moab, successfully adopted 100% renewable electricity resolutions.

Predicting The Influence Of Climate On Grassland Area Burned In Xilingol, China With Dynamic Simulations Of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models, Ali Hassan Shabbir, Jiquan Zhang, James D. Johnston, Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie, James A. Lutz, Xingpeng Liu

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

The influence of climate change on wildland fire has received considerable attention, but few studies have examined the potential effects of climate variability on grassland area burned within the extensive steppe land of Eurasia. We used a novel statistical approach borrowed from the social science literature—dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models—to explore the relationship between temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, sunlight, and carbon emissions on grassland area burned in Xilingol, a large grassland-dominated landscape of Inner Mongolia in northern China. We used an ARDL model to describe the influence of these variables on observed area burned between …

Projected Increase Of The East Asian Summer Monsoon (Meiyu) In Taiwan By Climate Models With Variable Performance, Yu-Shiang Tung, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Jung-Lien Chu, Chi-Hua Wu, Yung-Ming Chen, Chao-Tzuen Cheng, Lee-Yaw Lin

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

The active phase of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in Taiwan during May and June, known as Meiyu, produces substantial precipitation for water uses in all sectors of society. Following a companion study that analysed the historical increase in the Meiyu precipitation, the present study conducted model evaluation and diagnosis based on the EASM lifecycle over Taiwan. Higher and lower skill groups were identified from 17 Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, with five models in each group. Despite the difference in model performance, both groups projected a substantial increase in the Meiyu precipitation over Taiwan. …

Cooperative Extension And Sustainability Outreach: Programmatic Successes, Administrative Support, And Areas For Improvement, Roslynn Brain Mccann, Mark Apel, Clark Dove, Ramona Madhosingh-Hector, Jennison Kipp Searcy, David Kay

Extension Research

According to the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, without urgent global changes, climate catastrophe caused by warming of greater than 1.5°C will occur by 2030, endangering the planet's capacity to sustain human populations and livelihoods. The National Network for Sustainable Living Education administered a national survey in January 2017 to assess how well-positioned Extension is to address sustainability in the communities the organization serves. Educators from 40 states responded, and 1,395 usable surveys were received. Survey results will help Extension employees discover opportunities for innovation and relevancy in their programming.

Modeling Lake Temperature Response To Climate Change In The Alaskan Arctic, Thomas Balkcom

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This thesis study focuses on simulating lake temperature and ice duration for four lakes at the Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research site, near the Toolik Field Station in Alaska. Model projections were driven by the representative global climate model outputs under different carbon emission scenarios. Results show that my simple lake model can reproduce historical lake temperature and ice duration observations, indicating the reliability of the model for future projections. Model projections show that JuneSeptember lake temperatures would increase by 4.3-5.8 °C from the historical period with most progressive carbon emission scenarios, but by 0.7-2.2 °C in the conservative scenarios. Results …

Developing, Adopting, And Executing 100% Net-Renewable Electricity Resolutions At The Local Level, Emily E. Skill

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

In the absence of national leadership on climate policy, municipalities are adopting resolutions to reduce their carbon footprint and transition to clean energy. However, what leads to successful adoption of these resolutions and how to effectively implement climate goals at the community level needs further exploration. To investigate these questions, this thesis examines the resolutions adopted in Salt Lake City, Park City, and Moab, Utah to transition to 100% renewable electricity by 2032. Data was collected through documents, such as city reports and newspapers, and interviews with government officials, city staff, and community members involved with the resolution process. A …

An Examination Of Seasonal Shifts In Climate And Visitation, And Perspectives On Seasonal Shifts And Climate Adaptation Strategies In Tourism And Recreation Businesses For Moab, Utah, Elizabeth Cook

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The city of Moab, an outdoor recreation hub in eastern Utah, has been encountering both shifts in the seasonality of visitation, and increases in tourist visitation, even with summer temperatures above the normal high. Tourism research describing the effects of climate change on the outdoor recreation industry has focused on winter, snow-dependent activities, while studies in Moab city have focused on the economic value of outdoor recreational activities. Few studies have described the relationship between seasonal tourism and climate change for arid desert locations. The purpose of this study is to describe how the tourism and recreation industry in Moab, …

Is Grassfed Meat And Dairy Better For Human And Environmental Health?, Frederick D. Provenza, Scott L. Kronberg, Pablo Gregorini

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

The health of livestock, humans, and environments is tied to plant diversity—and associated phytochemical richness—across landscapes. Health is enhanced when livestock forage on phytochemically rich landscapes, is reduced when livestock forage on simple mixture or monoculture pastures or consume high-grain rations in feedlots, and is greatly reduced for people who eat highly processed diets. Circumstantial evidence supports the hypothesis that phytochemical richness of herbivore diets enhances biochemical richness of meat and dairy, which is linked with human and environmental health. Among many roles they play in health, phytochemicals in herbivore diets protect meat and dairy from protein oxidation and lipid …

Public Perceptions Of The Health Risks Of Extreme Heat Across Us States, Counties, And Neighborhoods, Peter D. Howe, Jennifer R. Marlon, Xinran Wang, Anthony Leiserowitz

Environment and Society Faculty Publications

Extreme heat is the leading weather-related cause of death in the United States. Many individuals, however, fail to perceive this risk, which will be exacerbated by global warming. Given that awareness of one’s physical and social vulnerability is a critical precursor to preparedness for extreme weather events, understanding Americans’ perceptions of heat risk and their geographic variability is essential for promoting adaptive behaviors during heat waves. Using a large original survey dataset of 9,217 respondents, we create and validate a model of Americans’ perceived risk to their health from extreme heat in all 50 US states, 3,142 counties, and 72,429 …

Sampling Bias Overestimates Climate Change Impacts On Forest Growth In The Southwestern United States, Stefan Klesse, R. Justin Derose, Christopher H. Guiterman, Ann M. Lynch, Christopher D. O’Connor, John D. Shaw, Margaret E.K. Evans

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

Climate−tree growth relationships recorded in annual growth rings have recently been the basis for projecting climate change impacts on forests. However, most trees and sample sites represented in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) were chosen to maximize climate signal and are characterized by marginal growing conditions not representative of the larger forest ecosystem. We evaluate the magnitude of this potential bias using a spatially unbiased tree-ring network collected by the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. We show that U.S. Southwest ITRDB samples overestimate regional forest climate sensitivity by 41–59%, because ITRDB trees were sampled at warmer and …

Assessment Of The Effects Of Climate Change On Evapotranspiration With An Improved Elasticity Method In A Nonhumid Area, Lei Tian, Jiming Jin, Pute Wu, Guo-Yue Niu

Watershed Sciences Faculty Publications

Climatic elasticity is a crucial metric to assess the hydrological influence of climate change. Based on the Budyko equation, this study performed an analytical derivation of the climatic elasticity of evapotranspiration (ET). With this derived elasticity, it is possible to quantitatively separate the impacts of precipitation, air temperature, net radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed on ET in a watershed. This method was applied in the Wuding River Watershed (WRW), located in the center of the Yellow River Watershed of China. The estimated rate of change in ET caused by climatic variables is −10.69 mm/decade, which is close to the …

Quantifying The Impact Of Climate Change And Human Activities On Streamflow In A Semi-Arid Watershed With The Budyko Equation Incorporating Dynamic Vegetation Information, Lei Tian, Jiming Jin, Pute Wu, Guo-Yue Niu

Watershed Sciences Faculty Publications

Understanding hydrological responses to climate change and land use and land cover change (LULCC) is important for water resource planning and management, especially for water-limited areas. The annual streamflow of the Wuding River Watershed (WRW), the largest sediment source of the Yellow River in China, has decreased significantly over the past 50 years at a rate of 5.2 mm/decade. Using the Budyko equation, this study investigated this decrease with the contributions from climate change and LULCC caused by human activities, which have intensified since 1999 due to China’s Grain for Green Project (GFGP). The Budyko parameter that represents watershed characteristics …

Climate Change Perceptions And Adaptation Among Small-Scale Farmers In Uganda: A Community-Based Participatory Approach, Thomas Derr

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Climate change in the East African country of Uganda is causing severe variations in the once predictable seasonal weather patterns that farmers had come to depend on. This, in combination with social and economic challenges, has significantly increased the vulnerability of farmers who make up the majority of Uganda’s population. Previous knowledge and observations suggest that Ugandan farmers may be reluctant or slow to change their practices in response to the changing climate. Strategies are therefore needed to identify challenges and sustainable solutions. This research used qualitative data collection methods known as participatory rural appraisal (PRA) and participatory action research …

Waterfall Formation At A Desert River-Reservoir Delta Isolates Endangered Fishes, Charles N. Cathcart, Casey A. Pennock, Christopher A. Cheek, Mark C. Mckinstry, Peter D. Mackinnon, Mary M. Conner, Keith B. Gido

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

Unforeseen interactions of dams and declining water availability have formed new obstacles to recovering endemic and endangered big-river fishes. During a recent trend of drying climate and declining reservoir water levels in the southwestern United States, a large waterfall has formed on two separate occasions (1989-1995 & 2001-present) in the transition zone between the San Juan River and Lake Powell reservoir because of deposited sediments. Because recovery plans for two large-bodied endangered fish species, razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus) and Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius), include annual stockings in the San Juan River, this waterfall potentially blocks upstream …

The Effect Of Warmer Winters On The Demography Of An Outbreak Insect Is Hidden By Intraspecific Competition, Devin W. Goodsman, Guenchik Grosklos, Brian H. Aukema, Caroline Whitehouse, Katherine P. Bleiker, Nate G. Mcdowell, Richard S. Middleton, Chonggang Xu

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9‐year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km², that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on …

Phenological Mismatch In Coastal Western Alaska May Increase Summer Season Greenhouse Gas Uptake, Katharine C. Kelsey, A. Joshua Leffler, Karen H. Beard, Ryan T. Choi, Joel A. Schmutz, Jeffery M. Welker

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

High latitude ecosystems are prone to phenological mismatches due to climate change- driven advances in the growing season and changing arrival times of migratory herbivores. These changes have the potential to alter biogeochemical cycling and contribute to feedbacks on climate change by altering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) through large regions of the Arctic. Yet the effects of phenological mismatches on gas fluxes are currently unexplored. We used a three-year field experiment that altered the start of the growing season and timing of grazing to …

Mitigating Projected Impacts Of Climate Change And Building Resiliency Through Permaculture: A Community ‘Bee Inspired Gardens’ Movement In The Desert Southwest, Usa, Roslynn Brain, Jeffrey Adams, Jeremy Lynch

Environment and Society Faculty Publications

Permaculture, an integrative design process creating resilient and productive landscapes and communities, can serve as a useful mitigation tool for projected climate change impacts. In the United States, the desert southwest town of Moab, Utah, has employed permaculture design in a community initiative called ‘Bee Inspired Gardens.’ This initiative has harnessed social capital to create resilient landscapes demonstrating pollinator health, water conservation, and perennial food and forage systems. Bee Inspired Gardens have been designed at a University, middle school, charter school, Bureau of Land Management property, hotel, public park, environmental education non-profit, and more. Community members are now harvesting fruit …

Stream Temperature Monitoring And Modeling To Inform Restoration: A Study Of Thermal Variability In The Western Us, Jessica R. Wood

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Water temperature is an important variable for aquatic ecosystems. Salmonid population numbers and distribution are heavily influenced by stream temperature, and there is growing concern about the health of salmonid populations with anticipated climate change. Managers are looking to efficiently evaluate options to maintain stream temperatures needed by salmonids. This study evaluated and compared stream temperature restoration alternatives in two streams with warm temperatures using stream temperature monitoring and modeling.

The first study identified pockets of cold water that are important to native fish species in Nevada’s Walker River. Comparison of monitoring results with existing basin-scale model outputs identified two …

Apathy And Concern Over The Future Habitability Of Earth: An Introductory College Assignment Of Forecasting Co2 In The Earth’S Atmosphere, Benjamin J. Burger

Journal on Empowering Teaching Excellence

Non-science, first year regional undergraduate students from rural Utah communities participated in an online introductory geology course and were asked to forecast the rise of CO₂ in the Earth’s atmosphere. The majority of students predicted catastrophic rise to 5,000-ppm sometime over the next 3,100 years, resulting in an atmosphere nearly uninhabitable to human life. However, the level of concern the students exhibited in their answers was not directly proportional with their timing in their forecasted rise of CO₂. This study showcases the importance of presenting students with actual data and using data to develop student forecasted models. …

China: Avoiding Impediments To Successful Climate Change Mitigation, Molly Rose Van Engelenhoven

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

This paper uses the Cultural Topography (CTOPs) methodology, an intelligence community standard which is used to avoid ethnocentric analysis and the dangerous practice of mirror imaging--projecting US culture on to another country rather than viewing the costs and benefits they face through their own cultural lens. CTOPs assess a country’s culture by examining four components of culture: identity, values, norms, and perceptual lens of an actor in conjunction with a specific issue of concern. This paper examines the internal culture of China, with the Chinese government as the key actor, to discover how to build effective policy to regulate air …