Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Delayed Coastal Inundations Caused By Ocean Dynamics Post-Hurricane Matthew, Kyungmin Park, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Yinglong J. Zhang, Tal Ezer, Fei Yi

CCPO Publications

Post Hurricane Abnormal Water Level (PHAWL) poses a persistent inundation threat to coastal communities, yet unresolved knowledge gaps exist regarding its spatiotemporal impacts and causal mechanisms. Using a high-resolution coastal model with a set of observations, we find that the PHAWLs are up to 50 cm higher than the normal water levels for several weeks and cause delayed inundations around residential areas of the U.S. Southeast Coast (USSC). Numerical experiments reveal that while atmospheric forcing modulates the coastal PHAWLs, ocean dynamics primarily driven by the Gulf Stream control the mean component and duration of the shelf-scale PHAWLs. Because of the …

Potential Repercussions Of Offshore Wind Energy Development In The Northeast United States For The Atlantic Surfclam Survey And Population Assessment, Sarah Borsetti, Daphne M. Munroe, Andrew M. Scheld, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

The Atlantic surfclam Spisula solidissima fishery, which spans the U.S. Northeast continental shelf, is among the most exposed to offshore wind energy development impacts because of the overlap of fishing grounds with wind energy lease areas, the hydraulic dredges used by the fishing vessels, and the location of vessel home ports relative to the fishing grounds. The Atlantic surfclam federal assessment survey is conducted using a commercial fishing vessel in locations that overlap with the offshore wind energy development. Once wind energy turbines, cables, and scour protection are installed, survey operations within wind energy lease areas may be curtailed or …

A Demonstration Of A Simple Methodology Of Flood Prediction For A Coastal City Under Threat Of Sea Level Rise: The Case Of Norfolk, Va, Usa, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Many coastal cities around the world are at risk of increased flooding due to sea level rise (SLR), so here a simple flood prediction method is demonstrated for one city at risk, Norfolk, VA, on the U.S. East Coast. The probability of future flooding is estimated by extending observed hourly water level for 1927–2021 into hourly estimates until 2100. Unlike most other flood prediction methods, the approach here does not use any predetermined probability distribution function of extreme events, and instead a random sampling of past data represents tides and storm surges. The probability of flooding for 3 different flood …

Scientific And Technical Advisory Committee Review Of The Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’S Climate Change Assessment Framework And Programmatic Integration And Response Efforts, Maria Hermann, Scott Doney, Tal Ezer, Keryn Gedan, Philip Morefield, Barbara Muhling, Douglas Pirhalla, Stephen Shaw

CCPO Publications

[From the Executive Summary] The following report presents a synthesis of reviewer responses from the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee’s (STAC) panel on the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’s Climate Change Assessment Framework (CCAF) and Programmatic Integration and Response Efforts. The enclosed findings and recommendations are in response to the 16 questions delivered to the panel (Appendix A).

In summary, given the current state of knowledge, the combination of using climate model projections and downscaling provides an acceptable baseline for estimating changing climate conditions for the Chesapeake Bay, and the panel finds the CCAF approach to be fundamentally sound. However, the …

The Increased Risk Of Flooding In Hampton Roads: On The Roles Of Sea Level Rise, Storm Surges, Hurricanes, And The Gulf Stream, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

The impact of sea level rise on increased tidal flooding and storm surges in the Hampton Roads region is demonstrated, using ~90 years of water level measurements in Norfolk, Virginia. Impacts from offshore storms and variations in the Gulf Stream (GS) are discussed as well, in view of recent studies that show that weakening in the flow of the GS (daily, interannually, or decadal) is often related to elevated water levels along the U.S. East Coast. Two types of impacts from hurricanes on flooding in Hampton Roads are demonstrated here. One type is when a hurricane like Isabel (2003) makes …

Integrated Ocean, Earth, And Atmospheric Observations For Resilience Planning In Hampton Roads, Virginia, Jon Derek Loftis, Molly Mitchell, Larry Atkinson, Ben Hamlington, Tom Allen, David Forrest, Teresa Updyke, Navid Tahvildari, David Bekaert, Mark Bushnell

CCPO Publications

Building flood resilience in coastal communities requires a precise understanding of the temporal and spatial scales of inundation and the ability to detect and predict changes in flooding. In Hampton Roads, the Intergovernmental Pilot Project’s Scientific Advisory Committee recommended an integrated network of ocean, earth, and atmospheric data collection from both private and public sector organizations that engage in active scientific monitoring and observing. Since its establishment, the network has grown to include monitoring of water levels, land subsidence, wave measurements, current measurements, and atmospheric conditions. High-resolution land elevation and land cover data sets have also been developed. These products …

Distributions Of Krill And Antarctic Silverfish And Correlations With Environmental Variables In The Western Ross Sea, Antarctica, L. Brynn Davis, Eileen E. Hofmann, John M. Klinck, Andrea Piñones, Michael S. Dinniman

CCPO Publications

Antarctic krill Euphausia superba, crystal krill E. crystallorophias, and Antarctic silverfish Pleuragramma antarctica are key mid-trophic level species in the Ross Sea, connecting primary production to the upper trophic levels. Distributions of these species were constructed from observations made in the western Ross Sea from 1988 to 2004. Distributions of environmental conditions were obtained from a 5-km resolution circulation model (temperature, mixed layer depth, surface speed) and satellite-derived observations (chlorophyll, sea ice cover). A hierarchy of statistical methods determined correlations and relationships between species and environmental conditions. Each species occupies a localized habitat defined by different environmental characteristics. …

A Synergistic Approach For Evaluating Climate Model Output For Ecological Applications, Rachel D. Cavanagh, Eugene J. Murphy, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, John Turner, Cheryl A. Knowland, Stuart P. Corney, Walker O. Smith Jr., Claire M. Waluda, Nadine M. Johnston, Richard G. J. Bellerby, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus …

Management Strategy Evaluation For The Atlantic Surfclam (Spisula Solidissima) Using A Spatially Explicit, Vessel-Based Fisheries Model, Kelsey M. Kuykendall, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klink, Paula T. Moreno, Robert T. Leaf

CCPO Publications

The commercially valuable Atlantic surfclam (Spisula solidissima) is harvested along the northeastern continental shelf of the United States. Its range has contracted and shifted north, driven by warmer bottom water temperatures. Declining landings per unit of effort (LPUE) in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) is one result. Declining stock abundance and LPUE suggest that overfishing may be occurring off New Jersey. A management strategy evaluation (MSE) for the Atlantic surfclam is implemented to evaluate rotating closures to enhance Atlantic surfclam productivity and increase fishery viability in the MAB. Active agents of the MSE model are individual fishing vessels with …

Fish Spawning Aggregations: Where Well-Placed Management Actions Can Yield Big Benefits For Fisheries And Conservation, Brad Erisman, William Heyman, Shinichi Kobara, Tal Ezer, Simon Pittman, Octavio Aburto-Oropeza, Richard S. Nemeth

CCPO Publications

Marine ecosystem management has traditionally been divided between fisheries management and biodiversity conservation approaches, and the merging of these disparate agendas has proven difficult. Here, we offer a pathway that can unite fishers, scientists, resource managers and conservationists towards a single vision for some areas of the ocean where small investments in management can offer disproportionately large benefits to fisheries and biodiversity conservation. Specifically, we provide a series of evidenced-based arguments that support an urgent need to recognize fish spawning aggregations (FSAs) as a focal point for fisheries management and conservation on a global scale, with a particular emphasis placed …

Marine Disease Impacts, Diagnosis, Forecasting, Management And Policy, Kevin D. Lafferty, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

(First paragraph) As Australians were spending millions of dollars in 2014 to remove the coraleating crown of thorns sea star from the Great Barrier Reef, sea stars started washing up dead for free along North America’s Pacific Coast. Because North American sea stars are important and iconic predators in marine communities, locals and marine scientists alike were alarmed by what proved to be the world’s most widespread marine mass mortality in geographical extent and species affected, especially given its mysterious cause. Investigative research using modern diagnostic techniques implicated a never-before-seen virus [1]. The virus inspired international attention to marine diseases, …

Marine Infectious Disease Dynamics And Outbreak Thresholds: Contact Transmission, Pandemic Infection, And The Potential Role Of Filter Feeders, Gorka Bidegain, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Tal Ben-Horin, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Disease-causing organisms can have significant impacts on marine species and communities. However, the dynamics that underlie the emergence of disease outbreaks in marine ecosystems still lack the equivalent level of description, conceptual understanding, and modeling context routinely present in the terrestrial systems. Here, we propose a theoretical basis for modeling the transmission of marine infectious diseases (MIDs) developed from simple models of the spread of infectious disease. The models represent the dynamics of a variety of host-pathogen systems including those unique to marine systems where transmission of disease is by contact with waterborne pathogens both directly and through filter-feeding processes. …

Understanding The Structure And Functioning Of Polar Pelagic Ecosystems To Predict The Impacts Of Change, E. E. Murphy, R. D. Cavanagh, K. F. Drinkwater, S. M. Grant, J. J. Heymans, E. E. Hofmann, G. L. Hunt Jr., N. M. Johnston

CCPO Publications

The determinants of the structure, functioning and resilience of pelagic ecosystems across most of the polar regions are not well known. Improved understanding is essential for assessing the value of biodiversity and predicting the effects of change (including in biodiversity) on these ecosystems and the services they maintain. Here we focus on the trophic interactions that underpin ecosystem structure, developing comparative analyses of how polar pelagic food webs vary in relation to the environment. We highlight that there is not a singular, generic Arctic or Antarctic pelagic food web, and, although there are characteristic pathways of energy flow dominated by …

Sea Level Acceleration In The China Seas, Yongcun Cheng, Tal Ezer, Benjamin D. Hamlington

CCPO Publications

While global mean sea level rise (SLR) and acceleration (SLA) are indicators of climate change and are informative regarding the current state of the climate, assessments of regional and local SLR are essential for policy makers responding to, and preparing for, changes in sea level. In this work, three acceleration detection techniques are used to demonstrate the robust SLA in the China Seas. Interannual to multidecadal sea level variations (periods >2 years), which are mainly related to natural internal climate variability and significantly affect estimation of sea level acceleration, are removed with empirical mode decomposition (EMD) analysis prior to the …

Imber- Research For Marine Sustainability: Synthesis And The Way Forward, Eileen Hofmann, Alida Bundy, Ken Drinkwater, Alberto R. Piola, Bernard Avril, Carol Robinson

CCPO Publications

The Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER) project aims at developing a comprehensive understanding of and accurate predictive capacity of ocean responses to accelerating global change and the consequent effects on the Earth system and human society. Understanding the changing ecology and biogeochemistry of marine ecosystems and their sensitivity and resilience to multiple drivers, pressures and stressors is critical to developing responses that will help reduce the vulnerability of marine-dependent human communities. This overview of the IMBER project provides a synthesis of project achievements and highlights the value of collaborative, interdisciplinary, integrated research approaches as developed and implemented through …

Chesapeake Bay Nitrogen Fluxes Derived From A Land-Estuarine Ocean Biogeochemical Modeling System: Model Description, Evaluation, And Nitrogen Bonds, Yang Feng, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, John Wilkin, Hanqin Tian, Qichun Yang, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

The Chesapeake Bay plays an important role in transforming riverine nutrients before they are exported to the adjacent continental shelf. Although the mean nitrogen budget of the Chesapeake Bay has been previously estimated from observations, uncertainties associated with interannually varying hydrological conditions remain. In this study, a land-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical modeling system is developed to quantify Chesapeake riverine nitrogen inputs, within-estuary nitrogen transformation processes and the ultimate export of nitrogen to the coastal ocean. Model skill was evaluated using extensive in situ and satellite-derived data, and a simulation using environmental conditions for 2001-2005 was conducted to quantify the Chesapeake Bay nitrogen …

Updating Maryland's Sea-Level Rise Projections, Donald F. Boesch, Larry P. Atkinson, William C. Boicourt, John D. Boon, Donald R. Cahoon, Robert A. Dalrymple, Tal Ezer, Benjamin P. Horton, Zoe P. Johnson, Robert E. Kopp, Ming Li, Richard H. Moss, Adam Parris, Christopher K. Sommerfield

CCPO Publications

With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, "The Free State" is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the …

Southern Ocean Globec Research And The Future, Eileen Hofmann

CCPO Publications

(First paragraph) The International Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Programme will end in early 2010, after almost 20 years. GLOBEC science has provided fundamental changes in our understanding of the scales of interactions in marine ecosystems, alternative views of marine food webs, and the influence of humans in marine ecosystem processes. Since Southern Ocean GLOBEC (SO GLOBEC) was one of the regional research programmes it is appropriate to reflect on i) its specific contributions, ii) how these might guide future Southern Ocean research, and iii) the key gaps for our future understanding of Southern Ocean ecosystems and the impact that …

Enso And Variability Of The Antarctic Peninsula Pelagic Marine Ecosystem, Valerie J. Loeb, Eileen E. Hofmann, John M. Klinck, Osmund Holm-Hansen, Warren B. White

CCPO Publications

The West Antarctic Peninsula region is an important source of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) in the Southern Ocean. From 1980-2004 abundance and concentration of phytoplankton and zooplankton, krill reproductive and recruitment success and seasonal sea ice extent here were significantly correlated with the atmospheric Southern Oscillation Index and exhibited three- to five-year frequencies characteristic of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. This linkage was associated with movements of the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front and Boundary, a changing influence of Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Weddell Sea waters, and eastward versus westward flow and mixing processes that are consistent with forcing by …

On The Movement Of Beluga Whales In Cook Inlet, Alaska: Simulations Of Tidal And Environmental Impacts Using A Hydrodynamic Inundation Model, Tal Ezer, Roderick Hobbs, Lie-Yauw Oey

CCPO Publications

The population of beluga whales in Cook Inlet, Alaska, is in decline, and since 2000 these whales have been under consideration for designation as "endangered" under the Endangered Species Act (and were placed on the list in October 2008, just before this article went to press). In order to study environmental and hydrodynamic impacts on the belugas' movements and survival in the unique habitat of the inlet, a three-dimensional ocean circulation and inundation model is combined with satellite-tracked beluga whale data. Model-wale data comparisons from two whale paths during a five-day period (september 17-21, 2000) covering 10 tidal cycles suggest …

Hydrodynamic Numerical Ocean Models Support Environmental Studies And Conservation Efforts: From An Arctic Estuary To A Caribbean Coral Reef, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Potential future climate changes, as highlighted recently by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, are likely to have different local impacts in different regions of the globe. Oceanic ecosystems may be especially sensitive to large environmental variation, and they are closely connected to physical changes such as temperature, salinity, currents and sea level. Two examples, from very different environments – one in a cold climate and one in a tropical climate, will be discussed here to show how hydrodynamic numerical models are helping to understand physical-biological interactions and potentially help dealing with future climate changes.

Quantifying Vertical Mixing In Estuaries, W. Rockwell Geyer, Malcolm E. Scully, David K. Ralston

CCPO Publications

Estuarine turbulence is notable in that both the dissipation rate and the buoyancy frequency extend to much higher values than in other natural environments. The high dissipation rates lead to a distinct inertial subrange in the velocity and scalar spectra, which can be exploited for quantifying the turbulence quantities. However, high buoyancy frequencies lead to small Ozmidov scales, which require high sampling rates and small spatial aperture to resolve the turbulent fluxes. A set of observations in a highly stratified estuary demonstrate the effectiveness of a vessel-mounted turbulence array for resolving turbulent processes, and for relating the turbulence to the …

Advection, Krill, And Antarctic Marine Ecosystems, Eileen E. Hofmann, Eugene J. Murphy

CCPO Publications

Advective processes are recognized as being important in structuring and maintaining marine ecosystems. In the Southern Ocean advective effects are perhaps most clearly observed because the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) provides a connection between most parts of the system, including open ocean and continental shelf regions. The ACC also provides a mechanism for large-scale transport of plankton, such as Antarctic krill (Euphousia superba Dana), which is an important component of the Southern Ocean food web. This overview provides a summary of recent observational and modelling results that consider the importance of advection to the Southern Ocean ecosystem and, in particular, …

Environmental Variability Effects On Marine Fisheries: Four Case Histories, Eileen E. Hofmann, T. M. Powell

CCPO Publications

The changing nature of marine fisheries requires management approaches that recognize and include ecosystem and environmental effects. Therefore, we review some examples of exploited fishery stocks in which environmental control is a major contributor to structuring the abundance and distribution of the stock. Four examples, taken from studies of northern cod (Gadus morhua), cod and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) larvae, the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica), and Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), are given that clearly illustrate environmental control on the fishery. From these examples, we argue that future management strategies for exploited fisheries must include effects of environmental variability. In particular, management …

Role Of Gulf Stream Frontal Eddies In Forming Phytoplankton Patches On The Outer Southeastern Shelf, James A. Yoder, Larry P. Atkinson, Thomas N. Lee, Hongsuk H. Kim, Charles R. Mcclain

CCPO Publications

Continuous surface mapping of temperature, salinity, and chlorophyll along a 300-km segment of the Gulf Stream cyclonic front defined the spatial scales of a large diatom patch that persisted throughout a 10-day study. The patch was localized in the upwelled cold core of a Gulf Stream frontal eddy centered over the 200-m isobaths off Jacksonville, Florida, in April 1979. The µ g liter^-1 surface chlorophyll isopleth enclosed an area >1,000km² with an alongshore dimension of 130km. Surface chlorophyll exceeded 5µg liter^-1 within the upwelled cold core of the eddy, 10-100X higher than concentrations in Gulf Stream or …

The Occurrence And Distribution Of Methane In The Marine Environment, Larry P. Atkinson, Francis A. Richards

CCPO Publications

The distributions of methane dissolved in the sulfide-bearing waters of the Black Sea, the Cariaco Trench, and Lake Nitinat are reported. The gas was not detected in the oxygen-deficient water of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, in the Santa Barbara Basin, nor in the sulfide-bearing water of Saanich Inlet. Maximum concentrations observed were 70 μmole CH4/l., and the distribution tends to follow that of sulfide. The data indicate that methane is derived from organic compounds not containing nitrogen or phosphorus and that its formation is much slower than that of sulfide. The solubility coefficient in seawater (salinity = 40‰) is …