Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Deadly Heat Waves Projected In The Densely Populated Agricultural Regions Of South Asia, Eun-Soon Im, Jeremy S. Pal, Elfatih A. B. Eltahir

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Works

The risk associated with any climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C can be considered an upper limit on human survivability. On the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution climate change simulations, we project that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in South Asia are likely to approach and, in a few locations, exceed this critical threshold by the late 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions. The most intense hazard from extreme future heat waves is concentrated around densely populated agricultural …