Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Quantifying Excess Deaths Related To Heatwaves Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Multicountry Time Series Modelling Study, Yuming Guo, Antonio Gasparrini, Shanshan Li, Francesco Sera, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Paulo Hilário Nascimento Nascimento Saldiva, Éric Lavigne, Benjawan Tawatsupa, Kornwipa Punnasiri, Ala Overcenco, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo R.I. Ryti, Patrick J. Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Honda, Yasushi Honda, Yasushi, Xerxes T. Seposo, Ho Young Kim, Aurelio Tobías, Carmen Iñiguez Fernández, Bertil Forsberg, Daniel Oudin Åström, Guo, Yue Leon Guo, Yue Leon, Bing Yu Chen, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel D. Schwartz, Tranngoc Ngoc Dang, Dung Do Van, Michelle L. Bell, Ben G. Armstrong, Ebi, Kristie L. Ebi, Kristie L., Shilu Tong

Articles

Background: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. Methods and findings: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave–mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of …