Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Improving Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Using Interdecadal/Interannual Climate Variability, Kenneth W. Lamb

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The National Weather Service’s (NWS) river forecast centers provide long-term water resource forecasts for the main river basins in the U.S. The NWS creates seasonal streamflow forecasts using an ensemble prediction model called the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) software. ESP creates runoff volume forecasts by taking the current observed soil moisture and snowpack conditions in the basin and applying them to historical temperature and precipitation scenarios. The ESP treats every historic input year as a likely scenario of future basin conditions. Therefore improving the knowledge about how long-term climate cycles impact streamflow can extend the forecast lead time and improve …