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Articles 1 - 10 of 10
Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Natural Infrastructure Alternatives Mitigate Hurricane-Driven Flood Vulnerability: Application To Tyndall Air Force Base, Kiara L. Vance
Natural Infrastructure Alternatives Mitigate Hurricane-Driven Flood Vulnerability: Application To Tyndall Air Force Base, Kiara L. Vance
Theses and Dissertations
Hurricane frequency and magnitude intensification are expected over the remainder of the twenty-first century. Uncertainty in future projections requires that coastal communities approach adaptation decisions with caution. Traditional approaches are costly and inflexible. Soft policy adaptations are largely unenforceable. Hard, natural adaptations have emerged as an opportunity to partially mitigate the growing risk of extreme flooding, without the large investments required for traditional approaches, where natural infrastructure already exists. Existing literature for natural adaptations has not leveraged intensification expectations for hurricane events. This research uses multihazard damage evaluation software and spatial analysis to investigate placement of dredged sediment as a …
A Post-Disaster Construction Portfolio Optimization Framework For Tyndall Afb Rebuild Post Hurricane Michael, Andre J. May
A Post-Disaster Construction Portfolio Optimization Framework For Tyndall Afb Rebuild Post Hurricane Michael, Andre J. May
Theses and Dissertations
Natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, and extreme flooding cause severe social and economic disruptions. Restoration of social and revenue-generating services often requires extensive reconstruction, from the facility to the campus scale. For multi-facility portfolios, decision-makers must prioritize post-disaster reconstruction activities appropriately to ensure facilities and infrastructure are restored. In addition, any expansion or new construction initiatives are ideally completed in order of decision-maker and community preference. Most post-disaster optimization and decision framework research consider a single stakeholder as guiding decisions related to a project portfolio. However, these portfolio prioritization frameworks ignore the effect of multiple stakeholders and competing …
A Critical Review Of Climate Change On Coastal Infrastructure Systems, Gregory J. Howland Jr.
A Critical Review Of Climate Change On Coastal Infrastructure Systems, Gregory J. Howland Jr.
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis is a response to climate threats identified by DoD report on Climate Change in 2019. A critical review of climate change literature related to coastal infrastructure was conducted to synthesize past research and to inform future research. This review intends to inform how climate change may impact infrastructure systems, how those impacts are evaluated, can the investigation be improved, and what can stakeholders learn from the outcomes. The end goal is to find climate change mitigation strategies and adaptation measures, or identify the easiest path to get to that end. The compiled information will inform civilian and military …
Hydrologic Profiles And Geospatial Trend Analysis Evaluating Recurrent Flooding At Coastal U.S. Air Force Installations, Dylan D. Bechen
Hydrologic Profiles And Geospatial Trend Analysis Evaluating Recurrent Flooding At Coastal U.S. Air Force Installations, Dylan D. Bechen
Theses and Dissertations
Military installations are exposed to numerous threats, including a changing climate and the risk of recurrent flooding. The four components of recurrent flooding are sea-level rise, tidal fluctuations, storm surges, and precipitation. This research analyzed 40 years of historical precipitation and tidal data at 17 coastal U.S. Air Force installations using indicators of both peak and threshold exceedances to identify long-term temporal trends in the hydrologic components that make up recurrent flood risk, establishing an installation’s “hydrologic profile” which can be used to better inform decision makers when evaluating portfolio-wide adaptation strategies and prioritization of long-term infrastructure investments.
A Framework For Assessing Facility-Level Vulnerability And Risk To Extreme Weather Events, Blake A. Gawlik
A Framework For Assessing Facility-Level Vulnerability And Risk To Extreme Weather Events, Blake A. Gawlik
Theses and Dissertations
Intensifying extreme weather events, tied to the rise in the global average temperature, put global built infrastructure at risk. This presents a daunting challenge for organizational leaders who are tasked to determine how best to adapt current infrastructure to uncertain future events. To develop adaptation plans and policies, vulnerability and risk must be downscaled to an actionable scale, such that planners, designers, and engineers can make adaptation recommendations. However, previous research has largely assessed risk at coarser scales, e.g., regional, national, or global. These assessments are informative, but do not help those tasked to lead adaptation to make detailed, actionable …
Climate Change Risk To Coastal Airfield Stormwater Systems, Jedidiah R. Langlois
Climate Change Risk To Coastal Airfield Stormwater Systems, Jedidiah R. Langlois
Theses and Dissertations
Climate change is resulting in rising sea levels and increased rainfall, posing new challenges to stormwater management, particularly along coastlines. The airfield stormwater systems of Tyndall Air Force Base discharge directly into an interior bay of the Gulf of Mexico through tidal canals and ditches, creating a risk of system inundation from high tidewater conditions from sea-level rise (SLR). This study explores the performance and consequences of an inundated stormwater system from SLR during rainfall events using the EPA’s Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). One hundred and fifty-three combinations of SLR and return year storms were applied to a model of …
Burn Probability And Climate Change: A Quantitative Evaluation Of The Temporal Alterations Of Wildfire, David N. Robinson
Burn Probability And Climate Change: A Quantitative Evaluation Of The Temporal Alterations Of Wildfire, David N. Robinson
Theses and Dissertations
The intensity of extreme weather events, specifically wildfires, along the West Coast has slowly grown overtime due to atmospheric changes caused by climate change. The Air Force, though aware of the threat that is wildfire, does not currently have a quantitative way to assess the hazard to base locations. In this paper, burn probability is quantitatively calculated through the geospatial analysis programs to provide a means of assessing wildfire vulnerability. The FlamMap fire simulator generated burn probabilities for Vandenberg Air Force Base using climate data generated by the remote automated weather station on the base to highlight how the burn …
Improving Airfield Pavement Degradation Prediction Skill With Local Climate And Traffic, Evan M. Fortney
Improving Airfield Pavement Degradation Prediction Skill With Local Climate And Traffic, Evan M. Fortney
Theses and Dissertations
Airfield pavements are a critical component of the global transportation network that provide a platform for national defense. Preventative and corrective maintenance activities are founded upon accurate expectations of degradation. The leading pavement management software creates degradation predictions from pavement groups using age as the IV and current state conditions as the DV. For this work, a framework is created and implemented that utilizes a PCR model to build upon accepted practices for degradation modeling to enhance and possibly augment future prediction capabilities. The model was applied to pairs of location and pavement family and reveals several findings: the selected …
Conversion From Coal To Natural Gas At Wright Patterson Air Force Base: An Analysis And Case Study, Tyler A. Ferry
Conversion From Coal To Natural Gas At Wright Patterson Air Force Base: An Analysis And Case Study, Tyler A. Ferry
Theses and Dissertations
Over the last 20 years, natural gas has replaced coal as the preferred fossil fuel for heat and power generation across the United States, due to its increased prevalence, lower cost, and reduced environmental impacts. While most conversion decisions are driven by cost savings, proponents of energy transitions often cite emissions reductions as a tangential benefit. Over the same time, climate change and its impact on the environment and society have come to the forefront of scientific inquiry. One example of the transition from coal to natural gas can be found in Dayton, Ohio. Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB) …
Climate-Informed Prediction And Forecast Modeling Of Installation Total Energy Consumption, Scott C. Weiss
Climate-Informed Prediction And Forecast Modeling Of Installation Total Energy Consumption, Scott C. Weiss
Theses and Dissertations
Climate variability is an external and stochastic factor that causes energy demand uncertainty. Energy managers can use climate-based models to understand future trends of energy demand and to adjust operations, policy, and budgets accordingly. This research focuses on 1) identifying how climate attributes impact energy use, 2) creating a historically informed statistical modeling framework to skillfully predict energy use, and 3) forecasting future changes to energy use and costs, using CMIP5 temperature projections, at the campus level. After synthesizing the existing breadth of research on climate-informed energy modeling, a skillful, unbiased, climate-informed total energy consumption prediction model is developed for …