Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Climate Change-Associated Declines In Water Clarity Impair Feeding By Common Loons, Walter H. Piper, Max R. Glines, Kevin C. Rose

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Climate change has myriad impacts on ecosystems, but the mechanisms by which it affects individual species can be difficult to pinpoint. One strategy to discover such mechanisms is to identify a specific ecological factor related to survival or reproduction and determine how that factor is affected by climate. Here we used Landsat imagery to calculate water clarity for 127 lakes in northern Wisconsin from 1995 to 2021 and thus investigate the effect of clarity on the body condition of an aquatic visual predator, the common loon (Gavia immer). In addition, we examined rainfall and temperature as potential predictors …

Fauna, Flora, And Land Cover Changes Over The Last Two Decades In The Mobile-Tensaw River Delta, Gabriel De Oliveria, Steven R. Schultze, Guilherme Mataveli

Technical Reports

A technical report documenting ecosystem changes to the Mobile-Tensaw River Delta region due to urban expansion over approximately two decades (2001-2019).

Deconstructing The Mangrove Carbon Cycle: Gains, Transformation, And Losses, M. F. Adame, N. Cormier, P. Taillardat, N. Iram, A. Rovai, T. M. Sloey, E. S. Yando, J. F. Blanco-Libreros, M. Arnaud, T. Jennerjahn, C. E. Lovelock, D. Friess, G. M. S. Reithmaier, C. A. Buelow, S. M. Muhammad-Nor, R. R. Twilley, R. A. Ribeiro

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Mangroves are one of the most carbon-dense forests on the Earth and have been highlighted as key ecosystems for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Hundreds of studies have investigated how mangroves fix, transform, store, and export carbon. Here, we review and synthesize the previously known and emerging carbon pathways in mangroves, including gains (woody biomass accumulation, deadwood accumulation, soil carbon sequestration, root and litterfall production), transformations (food web transfer through herbivory, decomposition), and losses (respiration as CO₂ and CH₄, litterfall export, particulate and dissolved carbon export). We then review the technologies available to measure carbon fluxes in …

Individual-Level Responses To Rapid Climate Change In Common Terns (Sterna Hirundo) And Arctic Terns (Sterna Paradisaea), Kaiulani A. Sund

Student Publications

This study examines fine-scale environmental changes and intraspecific variation in the diet and foraging behavior of two seabirds in the Gulf of Maine, one of the fastest-warming regions of the ocean. This variation on the individual level, or behavioral plasticity, may help long-lived species to persist in rapidly changing environments. As the water warms, seabirds’ preferred prey (hake and herring) follow cooler waters deeper and farther offshore. It is unlikely that all individuals respond to changing food availability in the same way. For common terns (Sterna hirundo) and Arctic terns (Sterna paradisaea) breeding on Petit Manan …

High Winds And Melting Sea Ice Trigger Landward Movement In A Polar Bear Population Of Concern, Annie Kellner, Todd C. Atwood, David C. Douglas, Stewart W. Breck, Colorado State University - Fort Collins

USDA Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Some animal species are responding to climate change by altering the timing of events like mating and migration. Such behavioral plasticity can be adaptive, but it is not always. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation have mostly remained on ice year-round, but as the climate warms and summer sea ice declines, a growing proportion of the subpopulation is summering ashore. The triggers of this novel behavior are not well understood. Our study uses a parametric time-to-event model to test whether biological and/or time-varying environmental variables thought to influence polar bear movement and habitat selection …

Rapidly Changing Range Limits In A Warming World: Critical Data Limitations And Knowledge Gaps For Advancing Understanding Of Mangrove Range Dynamics In The Southeastern Usa, Rémi Bardou, Michael J. Osland, Steven Scyphers, Christine Shepard, Karen E. Aerni, Jahson B. Alemu I, Robert Crimian, Richard H. Day, Nicholas M. Enwright, Laura C. Feher, Sarah L. Gibbs, Kiera O'Donnell, Savannah H. Swinea, Kalaina Thorne, Sarit Truskey, Anna R. Armitage, Ronald Baker, Josh L. Breithaupt, Kyle C. Cavanaugh, Erik S. Yando, A. Randall Hughes, Et Al.

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Climate change is altering species’ range limits and transforming ecosystems. For example, warming temperatures are leading to the range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive species at the expense of their cold-tolerant counterparts. In some temperate and subtropical coastal wetlands, warming winters are enabling mangrove forest encroachment into salt marsh, which is a major regime shift that has significant ecological and societal ramifications. Here, we synthesized existing data and expert knowledge to assess the distribution of mangroves near rapidly changing range limits in the southeastern USA. We used expert elicitation to identify data limitations and highlight knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of …

Plague Risk In The Western United States Over Seven Decades Of Environmental Change, Colin J. Carlson, Sarah N. Bevins, Boris V. Schmid

USDA Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

After several pandemics over the last two millennia, the wildlife reservoirs of plague (Yersinia pestis) now persist around the world, including in the western United States. Routine surveillance in this region has generated comprehensive records of human cases and animal seroprevalence, creating a unique opportunity to test how plague reservoirs are responding to environmental change. Here, we test whether animal and human data suggest that plague reservoirs and spillover risk have shifted since 1950. To do so, we develop a new method for detecting the impact of climate change on infectious disease distributions, capable of disentangling long-term trends (signal) and …

Satellite-Detected Ammonia Changes In The United States: Natural Or Anthropogenic Impacts, Yaqian He, Rongting Xu, Stephen A. Prior, Di Yang, Anni Yang, Jian Chen

USDA Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Ammonia (NH3) is the most abundant alkaline component and can react with atmospheric acidic species to form aerosols that can lead to numerous environmental and health issues. Increasing atmospheric NH3 over agricultural regions in the US has been documented. However, spatiotemporal changes of NH3 concentrations over the entire US are still not thoroughly understood, and the factors that drive these changes remain unknown. Herein, we applied the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) monthly NH3 dataset to explore spatiotemporal changes in atmospheric NH3 and the empirical relationships with synthetic N fertilizer application, livestock manure production, and climate factors across the entire US …

Understanding The Effects Of Climate Change Via Disturbance On Pristine Arctic Lakes—Multitrophic Level Response And Recovery To A 12-Yr, Low-Level Fertilization Experiment, Phaedra Budy, Casey A. Pennock, Anne E. Giblin, Chris Luecke, Daniel L. White, George W. Kling

Watershed Sciences Student Research

Effects of climate change-driven disturbance on lake ecosystems can be subtle; indirect effects include increased nutrient loading that could impact ecosystem function. We designed a low-level fertilization experiment to mimic persistent, climate change-driven disturbances (deeper thaw, greater weathering, or thermokarst failure) delivering nutrients to arctic lakes. We measured responses of pelagic trophic levels over 12 yr in a fertilized deep lake with fish and a shallow fishless lake, compared to paired reference lakes, and monitored recovery for 6 yr. Relative to prefertilization in the deep lake, we observed a maximum pelagic response in chl a (+201%), dissolved oxygen (DO, −43%), …

Vignette 12: The Blob, Nicholas Bond

Institute Publications

A marine heat wave of unprecedented severity, areal extent and duration occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean during 2014-2016. This event, known as the “Blob,” had a wide variety of far- ranging effects on physical, chemical, and biological ocean properties. Because the Blob was such a massive perturbation, it represents an attractively large signal for inquiry in the Salish Sea. It represents a dress rehearsal for typical conditions in future decades due to global climate change.

Vignette 20: Fraser River Estuary In Need Of Urgent Intensive Care, Laura Kehoe, Tara G. Martin

Institute Publications

The Fraser River is the lifeline of the Salish Sea, influencing its stratification, circulation, and primary productivity. If we do not take strong action to conserve the Fraser River estuary, two-thirds of the species at risk in this region are predicted to have a less than 50% chance of survival. Many of the region's most iconic species could disappear. Conservation action combined with environmental governance is a pathway for a brighter future for the Fraser River and other highly contested regions.

Predicting Range Shifts For The Virginia Opossum In Maine, Sara Griffin

Honors College

Species distribution and movement are increasingly influenced by climate change and human expansion. The Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) has been observed expanding their range northward due to the warming temperatures and urbanization. The Virginia opossums’ northern range is thought to be restricted by two abiotic winter factors, snow cover and low temperatures, which prevents foraging and ultimately leads to starvation. For this study, I predicted the movement of the Virginia opossum northward into central Maine and beyond based on current climate change trends. Microclimate temperatures were recorded using data-loggers and climate variable datasets were used to determine if …

Vignette 02: Lower Trophic Levels In The Salish Sea, Ian Perry

Institute Publications

Plankton form the base of the pelagic marine food web in the Salish Sea, and are eaten by fishes, marine mammals, and seabirds. Plankton include microscopic plants (phytoplankton) and very small animals (zooplankton). This vignette presents an overview of monitoring observations of phytoplankton and zooplankton distribution and biomass in the Strait of Georgia. Climate change may lead to unusual and unexpected patterns of phytoplankton and zooplankton in the future.

Vignette 23: Indigenous Management Systems Can Promote More Sustainable Salmon Fisheries In The Salish Sea, William I. Atlas, Natalie C. Ban, Jonathan W. Moore, Adrian M. Tuohy, Spencer Greening, Andrea J. Reid, Nicole Morven, Elroy White, William G. Housty, Jess A. Housty, Christina N. Service, Larry Greba, Sam Harrison, Katherine Ir Butts, Elissa Sweeney-Bergen, Donna Macintyre, Matthew R. Sloat, Katrina Connors

Institute Publications

Indigenous peoples of the Northern Pacific Rim have harvested salmon for more than 10,000 years, and Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) form the foundation of social-ecological systems encompassing communities from California to Kamchatka and Northern Japan. Through continuous placed-based interdependence with salmon, Indigenous societies formed deliberate and well-honed systems of salmon management. These systems promoted the sustained productivity of salmon fisheries. In Canada and the United States, Indigenous sovereignty and resource stewardship were forcibly disrupted by colonial government authority. Despite the destructive impacts of colonization, Indigenous culture and knowledge are resurgent in Canada and the United States. Indigenous fishing technologies and …

Vignette 21: How Ecological Time-Series Inform Response To Stressors, Jackson W.F. Chu

Institute Publications

An important part of biodiversity monitoring includes assessing the differences in vulnerability across parts of an ecosystem. Hypoxia is one of the big three climate- related stressors causing biodiversity loss in the oceans. As the ocean warms, its capacity to hold oxygen becomes reduced. At the same time, concurrent shifts in circulation result in changes to how oxygen gets transported from the surface (where oxygen dissolves into the ocean) to the seafloor and from offshore to inshore areas. When a habitat experiences a substantial drop in oxygen, below the point needed to sustain everyday life, animals respond by migrating away, …

Vignette 17: Salish Sea Jellyfish, Correigh Greene

Institute Publications

The Salish Sea is home to a diverse community of gelatinous zooplankton (or "jellies"). In their adult forms, jellies comprise a relatively large proportion of biomass in the Salish Sea. Questions regarding jellyfish abundance and climate variation in the Salish Sea have been difficult to address, in part because of a lack of consistent monitoring. Research presented in this vignette suggests that jellyfish are sensitive to climate signals like marine water temperatures, but do not appear to be systematically increasing in abundance over time. Due to advances in modeling, we may gain a better perspective on the roles jellies play …

Vignette 08: Connection To Place: Indigenous Leadership In Səlilwət (Burrard Inlet), Tsleil-Waututh Nation’S Treaty Lands And Resources Department

Institute Publications

Since time out of mind, Tsleil-Waututh have used and occupied Burrard Inlet and surrounding watersheds. Generations of Tsleil-Waututh people were brought up with the teaching, “When the tide went out, the table was set.” About 90% of our diet was once derived from Burrard Inlet and the Fraser River, but today the Inlet is unable to support our needs. Cumulative effects of colonial settlement and development have eroded the ecological health, integrity, and diversity of the Inlet. Tsleil-Waututh Nation (TWN) has a goal to restore the health of the Inlet so that we, and future generations of Tsleil-Waututh People, can …

Vignette 04: Olympia Oysters, Jodie Toft, Betsy Peabody

Institute Publications

Olympia oysters (Ostrea lurida) are our only native oyster species here in the Salish Sea. Olympia oysters once covered an estimated 13-26% of the intertidal area in Puget Sound, mostly near the heads of inlets. A combination of overharvest, pollution, and habitat loss reduced the current population to less than 4% of historic numbers, though sparse numbers of Olympia oysters can still be found throughout most of their historic distribution. Looking to the future, as our region’s marine waters experience effects of climate change and ocean acidification (OA), native species such as the Olympia oyster may prove to …

Vignette 14: Eelgrass Wasting Disease, Olivia Graham, Morgan Eisenlord, Drew Harvell

Institute Publications

Rising seawater temperatures can increase the risk of disease outbreaks in many taxa. Pathogens are potentially the ultimate keystone species in that their small biomass can have massive impacts that ripple through ecosystems. Disease outbreaks can be particularly damaging when they affect ecosystem engineers, such as seagrasses. Outbreaks of wasting disease in seagrasses are one of a myriad of stressors associated with declining temperate and tropical seagrass meadows around the globe. Levels of eelgrass wasting disease are high in the San Juan Islands and Puget Sound. These increasing levels of disease are a threat to sustainability of eelgrass meadows, our …

Vignette 13: The Salish Sea Model, Tarang Khangaonkar P.E.

Institute Publications

Given numerous concerns related to the health of the ecosystem and the possibility of anthropogenic impacts—from population growth to climate impacts, such as sea level rise—scientists, engineers, and planners seek an improved basic understanding of the biophysical behavior of the Salish Sea. The Salish Sea Model (SSM) development was motivated by this urgent need for a comprehensive predictive model that could diagnose water quality issues and concerns and serve as a planning tool in support of Puget Sound restoration efforts. The SSM was developed by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in collaboration with the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) …

Section 4: Climate Change: A Global Problem With Local Impacts, Kathryn L. Sobocinski

Institute Publications

Section 4 shifts from the local impacts of urbanization to the locally realized impacts of global climate change, including ocean acidification and sea level rise, followed by evidence of climate change in the ecosystem, ranging from phytoplankton and kelp, to wetlands, salmon, and marine birds.

Section 3: Urbanization And Human Impacts To The Seascape, Kathryn L. Sobocinski

Institute Publications

Section 3 turns to an in-depth discussion of stressors and impacts to the ecosystem from population growth and urbanization, such as increases in impervious surfaces, hardening of shorelines, and the problems caused by a myriad of marine contaminants.

Section 2: Context, Kathryn L. Sobocinski

Institute Publications

Section 2 sets a foundation for understanding the Salish Sea ecosystem by describing its fundamental biophysical processes and structure, including estuarine circulation, ecological productivity, and an overview of several important biogenic habitats.

Section 6: Opportunities For Improving Assessment And Understanding Of The Salish Sea, Kathryn L. Sobocinski

Institute Publications

Section 6 offers a list of science-based needs and opportunities brought to light by the report and various existing efforts within the Salish Sea science community, representing opportunities for greater collaboration across geographic and jurisdictional boundaries.

Section 5: Cumulative Ecosystem Effects, Kathryn L. Sobocinski, Jennifer Boldt, Todd Sandell, Jaclyn Cleary, Michael Schmidt, Isobel Pearsall, Iris Kemp, Brian Riddell, Lynda V. Mapes

Institute Publications

Section 5 introduces cumulative effects and brings in brief case discussions focused on herring, salmon, and orcas. Understanding the layers of stressors the ecosystem faces is integral to gaining a full picture of declines in ecosystem function.

Vignette 15: Eelgrass Variations Ties To Sea Level Variations, Ronald Thom

Institute Publications

This vignette shares an overview of the process and results of a long-term eelgrass monitoring effort at the mouth of Sequim Bay. Coupling these local long-term findings with research and monitoring across the Salish Sea and the globe will help better understand the longer-term effects of global warming and perhaps other human and natural-derived pressures on coastal ecosystems, and provide clues on how to make these systems more resilient to pressures.

Global Connectivity Of Southern Ocean Ecosystems, Eugene J. Murphy, Nadine M. Johnston, Eileen E. Hofmann, Richard A. Phillips, Jennifer A. Jackson, Andrew J. Constable, Sian F. Henley, Jessica Melbourne-Thomas, Rowan Trebilco, Rachel D. Cavanagh, Geraint A. Tarling, Ryan A. Saunders, David K.A. Barnes, Daniel P. Costa, Stuart P. Corney, Ceridwen I. Fraser, Juan Höfer, Kevin A. Hughes, Chester J. Sands, Sally E. Thorpe, Philip N. Trathan, José C. Xavier

CCPO Publications

Southern Ocean ecosystems are globally important. Processes in the Antarctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and the Southern Ocean directly influence global atmospheric and oceanic systems. Southern Ocean biogeochemistry has also been shown to have global importance. In contrast, ocean ecological processes are often seen as largely separate from the rest of the global system. In this paper, we consider the degree of ecological connectivity at different trophic levels, linking Southern Ocean ecosystems with the global ocean, and their importance not only for the regional ecosystem but also the wider Earth system. We also consider the human system connections, including the role of …

Population-Specific Resilience Of Halophila Ovalis Seagrass Habitat To Unseasonal Rainfall, An Extreme Climate Event In Estuaries, Chanelle L. Webster, Kieryn L. Kilminster, Marta Sánchez Alarcón, Katherine Bennett, Simone Strydom, Sian Mcnamara, Paul S. Lavery, Kathryn M. Mcmahon

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

1. Extreme climate events are predicted to alter estuarine salinity gradients exposing habitat-forming species to more frequent salinity variations. The intensity and duration of these variations, rather than the mean salinity values ecosystems are exposed to, may be more important in influencing resilience but requires further investigation.
2. Precipitation, including the frequency, intensity and timing of occurrence, is shifting due to climate change. A global analysis on the timing of rainfall in estuarine catchments was conducted. In 80% of the case studies, the maximum daily rainfall occurred in the dry season at least once over the 40-year period and could be classified …

Local Adaptation Constrains Drought Tolerance In A Tropical Foundation Tree, Kasey E. Barton, Casey Jones, Kyle F. Edwards, Aaron B. Shiels, Tiffany Knight

USDA Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

1. Plant species with broad climatic ranges might be more vulnerable to climate change than previously appreciated due to intraspecific variation in climatic stress tolerance. In tropical forests, drought is increasingly frequent and severe, causing widespread declines and altering community dynamics. Yet, little is known about whether foundation tropical trees vary in drought tolerance throughout their distributions, and how intraspecific variation in drought tolerance might contribute to their vulnerability to climate changE.
2. We tested for local adaptation in seedling emergence and establishment with a full-factorial reciprocal transplant experiment including 27 populations and 109,350 seeds along a 3,500 mm precipitation gradient for …

Assessing The Hierarchy Of Long-Term Environmental Controls On Diatom Communities Of Yellowstone National Park Using Lacustrine Sediment Records, Victoria Chraibi, Sherilyn C. Fritz

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

An ecosystem’s ability to maintain structure and function following disturbance, defined as resilience, is influenced by a hierarchy of environmental controls, including climate, surface cover, and ecological relationships that shape biological community composition and productivity. This study examined lacustrine sediment records of naturally fishless lakes in Yellowstone National Park to reconstruct the response of aquatic communities to climate and trophic cascades from fish stocking. Sediment records of diatom algae did not exhibit a distinct response to fish stocking in terms of assemblage or algal productivity. Instead, 3 of 4 lakes underwent a shift to dominance by benthic diatom species from …