Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Impact Of Minimum Winter Temperatures On The Population Dynamics Of Dendroctonus Frontalis, J. KhảI TrầN, Tiina Ylioja, Ronald F. Billings, Jacques Régnière, Matthew P. Ayres

Dartmouth Scholarship

Predicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis (the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, …