Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Future Colorado River Basin Drought And Surplus, Rama Bedri, Thomas Piechota

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Historical and future drought and surplus periods in the Colorado River basin are evaluated based on eight climate scenarios. Unimpaired streamflow from 17 stations in the Colorado River are evaluated based on U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Projection 5 downscaled data from 1950–2099. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios are considered for four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, MI-ROC5). Drought (surplus) quantities, magnitudes, severities, and water year flows are compared for the historical and future periods. Results indicate that there is a significant difference between the historical record and future projections. The …

Comparing Past And Future Drought And Surplus Periods In The Colorado River Basin, Rama Bedri

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

The Colorado River Basin is crucial to the Western United States, providing water for seven states and Mexico. Historical and future periods of drought and surplus are analyzed in 17 Colorado River stations. Unimpaired streamflow data are evaluated from the U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Projection 5 from 1950-2099. Future projections are based on eight climate scenarios. Four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, MI-ROC5) are observed at Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Furthermore, the ensemble water year means of the four models are analyzed. The durations of drought or surplus, magnitudes, …

Development And Evaluation Of Seasonal, Continental-Scale Streamflow Forecasts, Elissa Marie Yeates

Theses and Dissertations

Methods of forecasting streamflow using atmospheric ensembles and hydrologic routing have greatly improved over the past decades. These forecasts anticipate the timing and magnitude of streamflow peaks, enabling early warning of floods. Recent advances in atmospheric modeling have enabled production of forecasts months ahead, which are less precise but give a useful sense of trends.

The purpose of this study is to produce and evaluate a seasonal streamflow forecast model using a Muskingum routing hydrologic model coupled with runoff from a land surface model, and atmospheric input from a medium-term atmospheric and precipitation model. To evaluate the skill of the …

Changes In Western U.S. Streamflow Extremes Under Climate Change, Rama Bedri

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

We are analyzing streamflow extremes in Western U.S. rivers due to climate change. Global warming causes natural disasters to reach extreme points and affects river volumes, snowfall, and precipitation amounts. We analyze the data for 17 stations in the Colorado River Basin, whose rivers provide Southern California’s drinking water supply. Disruptions in streamflow due to climate change affect the region’s water availability and make it difficult to predict future trends. We compared historical streamflow data to eight possible climate scenarios. The different scenarios are Warm Dry, Cool Wet, Average, and Other at emission levels of RCP 4.5 and 8.5. First, …

Future Climate Streamflow Estimation In The Donnelly River Catchment, Justin Hughes, Bill Wang

Natural resources commissioned reports

The Donnelly River is located in the south-west of Western Australia. An irrigation development has been proposed in the catchment that would extract water from the Donnelly River and store this in an off stream reservoir for irrigation use. Given the known issues related to non-stationarity and hydrological prediction, the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) contracted CSIRO to review the hydrological model that was used to estimate future climate streamflow in the Donnelly River. This model was owned and operated by the Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (DWER). The CSIRO review of the model, which also …

Evaluation Of Snow And Streamflow In The National Water Model With Analysis Using Machine Learning, Engela Sthapit

Dissertations and Theses

Snow has great influence on land-atmosphere interactions and snowmelt from the mountains is a vital water source for downstream communities dependent on snow fed lakes, rivers and streams. This study explored the snow and streamflow prediction capabilities of process-based numerical prediction and data-driven machine learning models.

The overall goal of this study was to understand the deficiencies in the NOAA’s National Water Model (NWM) to represent snow, subsequently streamflow, and recognize the areas where it could be improved for future model developments. The goal was also to evaluate if the recent advancements in machine learning techniques is useful for predicting …