Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Automation And Coupling Of Models For Coastal Flood Forecasting In South Texas, Cesar Davila Hernandez, Sara E. Davila, Martin Flores, Jungseok Ho, Dong-Chul Kim

Computer Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Forecasting natural disasters such as inundations can be of great help for emergency bodies and first responders. In coastal communities, this risk is often associated with storm surge. To produce flood forecasts for coastal communities, a system must incorporate models capable of simulating such events based on forecasted weather conditions. In this work, a system for forecasting inundations based predominantly on storm surge is explored. An automation and a coupling strategy were implemented to produce forecasted flood maps automatically. The system leverages an ocean circulation model and a channel water flow model to estimate flood events in South Texas specially …

Seasonally And Diurnally Varying Cold Front Effects Along The Minnesotan North Shore Of Lake Superior, Matthew S. Van Den Broeke

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

Cold fronts are typically associated with cooling, drying and a strengthening wind that shifts to have a northerly component. Cold front effects at a particular point, however, are dependent upon pre-existing air mass characteristics. Here, we examine 634 passages of synoptic-scale cold fronts in northeastern Minnesota from 2010 to 2018. While these fronts are associated with the expected effects in some areas, they are often associated with warming and enhanced drying in the region directly influenced by an air mass from Lake Superior (coastal sites). Coastal sites experience warming during more than half of cold frontal passages, in contrast to …

Atlantic Ocean Variability And European Alps Winter Precipitation, Giuseppe Formetta, Jonghun Kam, Sahar Sadeghi, Glenn Tootle, Thomas Piechota

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Winter precipitation (snowpack) in the European Alps provides a critical source of freshwater to major river basins such as the Danube, Rhine, and Po. Previous research identified Atlantic Ocean variability and hydrologic responses in the European Alps. The research presented here evaluates Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and European Alps winter precipitation variability using Singular Value Decomposition. Regions in the north and mid-Atlantic from the SSTs were identified as being tele-connected with winter precipitation in the European Alps. Indices were generated for these Atlantic SST regions to use in prediction of precipitation. Regression and non-parametric models were developed using the …

Development Of Predictive Models For Water Budget Simulations Of Closed-Basin Lakes: Case Studies Of Lakes Azuei And Enriquillo On The Island Of Hispaniola, Mahrokh Moknatian, Michael Piasecki

Publications and Research

The historical water level fluctuations of the two neighboring Caribbean lakes of Azuei (LA) and Enriquillo (LE) on Hispaniola have shown random periods of synchronous and asynchronous behaviors, with both lakes exhibiting independent dynamics despite being exposed to the same climatic forces and being directly next to each other. This paper examines their systems' main drivers and constraints, which are used to develop numerical models for these two lakes. The water balance approach was employed to conceptually model the lakes on an interannual scale and examine the assumptions of surface and subsurface processes. These assumptions were made based on field …

Quo Vadis Lakes Azuei And Enriquillo: A Future Outlook For Two Of The Caribbean Basin's Largest Lakes, Mahrokh Moknatian, Michael Piasecki

Publications and Research

Lakes Azuei (LA) and Enriquillo (LE) on Hispaniola Island started expanding in 2005 and continued to do so until 2016. After inundating large swaths of arable land, submerging a small community, and threatening to swallow a significant trade route between the Dominican Republic and Haiti; worries persisted at how far this seemingly unstoppable expansion would go. The paper outlines the approach to a look forward to answer this question vis-à-vis climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It uses numerical representations of the two lakes, and it examines how the lakes might evolve, deploying three …

Nonmeteorological Influences On Severe Thunderstorm Warning Issuance: A Geographically Weighted Regression-Based Analysis Of County Warning Area Boundaries, Land Cover, And Demographic Variables, Megan L. White, J. Anthony Stallins

Geography Faculty Publications

Studies have shown that the spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm warnings demonstrates variation beyond what can be attributed to weather and climate alone. Investigating spatial patterns of these variations can provide insight into nonmeteorological factors that might lead forecasters to issue warnings. Geographically weighted regression was performed on a set of demographic and land cover descriptors to ascertain their relationships with National Weather Service (NWS) severe thunderstorm warning polygons issued by 36 NWS forecast offices in the central and southeastern United States from 2008 to 2015. County warning area (CWA) boundaries and cities were predominant sources of variability in warning …

Forecasting The Response Of Earth's Surface To Future Climatic And Land Use Changes: A Review Of Methods And Research Needs, Jon D. Pelletier, A. Brad Murray, Jennifer L. Pierce, Paul R. Bierman, David D. Breshears, Benjamin T. Crosby, Michael Ellis, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, Arjun M. Heimsath, Chris Houser, Nick Lancaster, Marco Marani, Dorothy J. Merritts, Laura J. Moore, Joel Pederson, Michael J. Poulos, Tammy M. Rittenour, Joel C. Rowland, Peter Ruggiero, Dylan J. Ward, Andrew D. Wickert, Elowyn M. Yager

Geosciences Faculty Publications

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have …

Forecasting The Response Of Earth’S Surface To Future Climatic And Land Use Changes: A Review Of Methods And Research Needs, Jennifer L. Pierce, Michael J. Poulos

Geosciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have …

Could Satellite Altimetry Have Improved Early Detection And Warning Of The 2011 Tohoku Tsunami?, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Leben, O. A. Godin, E. Gica, V. V. Titov, B. J. Haines, S. D. Desai

CCPO Publications

The 2011 Tohoku tsunami devastated Japan and affected coastal populations all around the Pacific Ocean. Accurate early warning of an impending tsunami requires the detection of the tsunami in the open ocean. While the lead-time was not sufficient for use in warning coastal populations in Japan, satellite altimetry observations of the tsunami could have been used to improve predictions and warnings for other affected areas. By comparing to both model results and historical satellite altimeter data, we use near-real-time satellite altimeter measurements to demonstrate the potential for detecting the 2011 Tohoku tsunami within a few hours of the tsunami being …

The Use Of Large-Scale Climate Data To Predict Drought, River Flows, And Vegetation Over Central-Southwest Asia, Matthew Barlow

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Central-Southwest Asia is a semi-arid, economically stressed region where droughts have severe societal impacts in terms of agriculture, farming, access to fresh water for drinking, and sanitation. There are two sources of drought predictability for this area: the influence of predictable modes of large-scale climate variability at both seasonal and intraseasonal timescales, and the importance of the snow pack to warm season river flows and vegetation. Local data scarcity is a critical problem for the region, both for historical analysis and for real-time monitoring. However, analysis shows that satellite data can be used to provide a considerable amount of high-resolution …

Verification Of The Cobb Snowfall Forecasting Algorithm, Josh Barnwell

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Forecasting storm total snow accumulation is one of the most difficult aspects of meteorological forecasting. The forecaster has to interpret three main variables in order to forecast snowfall accurately. These forecasting variables are the duration of the snowfall, the amount of liquid water the storm will produce, and the snow density or snow ratio. With the advancement of computer models in recent history, the need for a quick and easy interpretation of these variables has grown, and to improve on previous forecasting techniques’ disadvantages with including the three snow forecasting variables. The Cobb Method snowfall forecasting algorithm utilizes model data …

Crop Updates 2007 - Farming Systems, David Jeffries, A. Loi, B. J. Nutt, C. K. Revell, Yvette Oliver, Michael Robertson, Bill Bowden, Kit Leake, Ashley Bonser, Ian Maling, Bindi Isbister, Garren Knell, Alison Slade, David Stephens, Michael Meuleners, David Beard, Nicolyn Short, Rob Grima, Ingrid Richardson, Ruhi Ferdowsian, Geoff Bee, David Evans, Bob Gilkes, Senthold Asseng, Jim Dixon, Felicity Byrne, Mike Ewing, Dennis Van Gool, Louise Barton, Ralf Kiese, David Gatter, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Renee Buck, Christoph Hinz, Daniel Murphy, Cameron Weeks, Meredith Fairbanks, John Peirce, Brad Rayner, Sandy White, Paul Damon, Qifa Ma, Zed Rengel, Ed Barrett-Lennard, Meir Altman, Tracey M. Gianatti, Lindsay Bell, Ben Webb, Caroline Peek, Paul Sanford, Paul Blackwell, Glen Riethmuller, Darshan Sharma, Mike Collins, Frank D'Emden, David Hall, G. P. Manango, D. L. Steverson, Vanessa Stewart, Julie Roche, Peter Rutherford, Imma Farré, Ian Foster, Stephen Charles, Frances Hoyle, N. Milton, M. Osman, L. K. Abbott, W. R. Cookson, S. Darmawanto, Rob Sands, David Mccarthy, Paul Carmody, J. Russell, J. Eyres, G. Fosbery, A. Roe, Phil Nichols, Andrew Bathgate, Anne Wilkins

Crop Updates

This session covers forty papers from different authors:

1. Quality Assurance and industry stewardship, David Jeffries, Better Farm IQ Manager, Cooperative Bulk Handling

2. Sothis: Trifolium dasyurum (Eastern Star clover), A. Loi, B.J. Nutt and C.K. Revell, Department of Agriculture and Food

3. Poor performing patches of the paddock – to ameliorate or live with low yield? Yvette Oliver¹, Michael Robertson¹, Bill Bowden², Kit Leake³and Ashley Bonser³, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems¹, Department of Food and Agriculture², Kellerberrin Farmer³

4. What evidence is there that …

Crop Updates 2006 - Cadoux And Calingiri, Raj Malik, Kelly Winfield, David Stephens, Michael Meuleners, Kari-Lee Falconer, Bill Bowden, Narelle Simpson, Anne Wilkins, Nathan Hancock, Peter Newman, Glenn Adam, Andrew Blake, Caroline Peak, Stephen Davies, Chris Gazey, Bob Gilkes, Dan Evans, Tania Liaghati

Crop Updates

This session covers nine papers from different authors

1. Performance of oaten hay varieties in Western Australian environments, Raj Malik and Kellie Winfield, Department of Agriculture

2. Performance of dwarf potential milling varieties in Western Australian environments, Raj Malik and Kellie Winfield, Department of Agriculture

3. 2006 Seasonal outlook, David Stephens, Michael Meuleners and Kari-Lee Falconer, Department of Agriculture

4. Matching nitrogen supply to crop demand in high rainfall cropping, Bill Bowden, Narelle Simpson Department of Agriculture

5. An overview of the potential for a Biofuels Industry in Western Australia, Anne Wilkins and Nathan Hancock, Department of Agriculture

6. IWM performs over 5 years …

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Llaffs - A Lightning-Locating And Fire-Forecasting System, United States Department Of Agriculture, Forest Service

Forestry

This publication contains programs and documentation to implement an algorithm for calculating lightning fire probability. This calculation is based on a model originally developed for the National Fire-Danger Rating System. The model algorithm estimates the probability that a lightning discharge from cloud to ground will ignite a fire in fuels at the ground terminus of the lightning. Probability is estimated using variables that are measures of the fuel state and type, rain, and lightning. Details of the model can be found in Fuquay and others (1979), Latham (1979), and Fuquay (1980).