Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Evaluating How Well Active Fault Mapping Predicts Earthquake Surface-Rupture Locations, Chelsea Scott, Ramon Arrowsmith, Rachel Adam, Christopher Madugo, Joseph Powell, John Ford, Brian Gray, Ashley Streig, Multiple Additional Authors

Geology Faculty Publications and Presentations

Earthquake surface-fault rupture location uncertainty is a key factor in fault displacement hazard analysis and informs hazard and risk mitigation strategies. Geologists often predict future rupture locations from fault mapping based on the geomorphology interpreted from remote-sensing data sets. However, surface processes can obscure fault location, fault traces may be mapped in error, and a future rupture may not break every fault trace. We assessed how well geomorphology-based fault mapping predicted surface ruptures for seven earthquakes: 1983 M 6.9 Borah Peak, 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, 2010 M 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah, 2011 M 6.7 Fukushima-Hamadori, 2014 M 6.0 South Napa, 2016 …