Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Modeling Long-Term Volcanic Hazards Through Bayesian Inference: An Example From The Tohoku Volcanic Arc, Japan, Andrew J. Martin, Koji Umeda, Charles B. Connor, Jennifer N. Weller, Dapeng Zhao, Masaki Takahashi

Geology Faculty Publications

The need to quantitatively estimate future locations of volcanoes in the long-term is of increasing importance, partly as a result of the requirement of constructing certain types of installations in regions of low geologic risk. The complex geological factors and natural processes controlling the locations of volcanoes make it problematic to estimate future patterns deterministically. Instead, the probabilistic approach can be developed with quite high levels of confidence; however, for regions with few or no volcanoes, there is a need to include additional geological and geophysical data that may indicate the likelihood of future volcanism. We achieve this using Bayesian …