Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Modeling The Incubation Period Of Anthrax, Ron Brookmeyer, Elizabeth Johnson, Sarah Barry

Ron Brookmeyer

Models of the incubation period of anthrax are important to public health planners because they can be used to predict the delay before outbreaks are detected, the size of an outbreak and the duration of time that persons should remain on antibiotics to prevent disease. The difficulty is that there is little direct data about the incubation period in humans. The objective of this paper is to develop and apply models for the incubation period of anthrax. Mechanistic models that account for the biology of spore clearance and germination are developed based on a competing risks formulation. The models predict …

A Likelihood Based Method For Real Time Estimation Of The Serial Interval And Reproductive Number Of An Epidemic, Laura Forsberg White, Marcello Pagano

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis Of Areal Data And Discovery Of Neighborhood Relationships In Conditionally Autoregressive Models, Subharup Guha, Louise Ryan

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Characterization Of Β-Lactam Resistant Pandemic Serotypes Of Vibrio Cholerae Isolated From Ships' Ballast Tanks And Coastal Waters, Amanda Lynn Goodrich

OES Theses and Dissertations

Vibrio cholerae serotypes 01 and 0139 are responsible for world-wide epidemics of cholera. These pandemic causing strains must possess genes that encode for the cholera toxin (CTX) and toxin co-regulated pili (TCP) in order to infect their hosts. In this study, 284 isolates of Vibrio cholerae from ballast and coastal waters were serotyped, with 11 % testing positive for serotype 01 and 21 % testing positive for serotype 0139. PCR assays were used to detect the presence of ctxA and tcpA genes in all positive isolates, none of which contained ctxA while 2% of the isolates contained tcpA. The 01 …

Accumulation Of Phycotoxins In The Mussel Mytilus Galloprovincialis From The Central Adriatic Sea, Maja Pavela-Vrančić, Ivana Ujević, Živana Ninčević Gladan, Ambrose Furey

Physical Sciences Publications

Surveys of DSP (Diarrheic Shellfish Poisoning) toxin profiles in the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis from coastal waters of the central Adriatic Sea, over the years 1995 to 2001, demonstrate that incidents of shellfish toxicity in this area are dominated by the occurrence of okadaic acid (OA) and a PTX derivative, 7-epi-pectenotoxin-2-seco acid (7-epi-PTX-2SA). Toxin composition and the relative ratio of toxic components in shellfish is in correlation with the occurrence of DSP producing organisms from the Dinophysis species along with Prorocentrum micans and Lingulodinium polyedrum. The occurrence of D. sacculus shortly before the appearance of OA in shellfish implicates its possible …

Sheep Updates 2006 - Part 4, K. G. Geenty, A. A. Swan, A. J. Smith, J. L. Smith, Chris Oldham, R. G. Woodgate, R. A. Love, E. Dobbe, H. M. Hoult, J. Pearson, S. Hill, A. Van Burgel, R. B. Besier, R. Warburton, L. Mathwin, D. Rogers, E. Crossley, Allan Herbert, P. Nichols, Tony Albertsen, Darryl Mcclements, Graeme Martin, Penny Hawken, Caroline Vinoles, Beth Paganoni, Dominique Blanche

Sheep Updates

This session covers seven papers from different authors:

MANAGEMENT

1. Wool and meat traits in Merino flocks in different regions, K.G. Geenty, A.A. Swan, A.J. Smith, J.L. Smith, Sheep CRC and CSIRO Livestock Industries, Armidale

2. Fat score or Condition score? - It all depends on what you want to do! Chris Oldham, Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia

3. Sheep worm control - the latest for Western Australia, RG Woodgate, RA Love, E Dobbe, HM Hoult, J Pearson, S Hill, A van Burgel and RB Besier, Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia

PASTURES

4. Rethinking pasture production …

Different Public Health Interventions Have Varying Effects, Paula Diehr, Anne B. Newman, Liming Cai, Ann Derleth

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Objective: To compare performance of one-time health interventions to those that change the probability of transitioning from one health state to another. Study Design and Setting: We used multi-state life table methods to estimate the impact of eight types of interventions on several outcomes. Results: In a cohort beginning at age 65, curing all the sick persons at baseline would increase life expectancy by 0.23 years and increase years of healthy life by .54 years. An equal amount of improvement could be obtained with a 12% decrease in the probability of getting sick, a 16% increase in the probability of …

Regression Analysis For The Partial Area Under The Roc Curve, Tianxi Cai, Lori E. Dodd

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Optimal Therapy Regimens For Treatment-Resistant Mutations Of Hiv, Weiqing Gu, Helen Moore

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

In this paper, we use control theory to determine optimal treatment regimens for HIV patients, taking into account treatment-resistant mutations of the virus. We perform optimal control analysis on a model developed previously for the dynamics of HIV with strains of various resistance to treatment (Moore and Gu, 2005). This model incorporates three types of resistance to treatments: strains that are not responsive to protease inhibitors, strains not responsive to reverse transcriptase inhibitors, and strains not responsive to either of these treatments. We solve for the optimal treatment regimens analytically and numerically. We find parameter regimes for which optimal dosing …

Introduction To N-Adaptive Fuzzy Models To Analyze Public Opinion On Aids, Florentin Smarandache, W.B. Vasantha Kandasamy

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

“AIDS is not simply a physical malady, it is also an artifact of social and sexual transgression, violated taboo, fractured identity—political and personal projections. Its key words are primarily the property of the powerful. AIDS: Keywords – is my attempt to identify and contest some of the assumptions underlying our current ‘knowledge’. In this effort I am joined by many AIDS activists including people living with AIDS— Acquired Immuno Deficiency Syndrome. “A syndrome is a pattern of symptoms pointing to a “morbid state” which may or may not be caused by infectious agents; a disease, on the other hand is, …