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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Intelligence Game: Assessing Delphi Groups And Structured Question Formats, Bonnie Wintle, Steven Mascaro, Fiona Fidler, Marissa Mcbride, Mark Burgman, Louisa Flander, Geoff Saw, Charles Twardy, Aidan Lyon, Brian Manning
The Intelligence Game: Assessing Delphi Groups And Structured Question Formats, Bonnie Wintle, Steven Mascaro, Fiona Fidler, Marissa Mcbride, Mark Burgman, Louisa Flander, Geoff Saw, Charles Twardy, Aidan Lyon, Brian Manning
Australian Security and Intelligence Conference
In 2010, the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) announced a 4-year forecasting “tournament”. Five collaborative research teams are attempting to outperform a baseline opinion pool in predicting hundreds of geopolitical, economic and military events. We are contributing to one of these teams by eliciting forecasts from Delphi-style groups in the US and Australia. We elicit probabilities of outcomes for 3-5 monthly questions, such as: Will Australia formally transfer uranium to India by 1 June 2012? Participants submit probabilities in a 3-step interval format, view those of others in their group, share, rate and discuss information, and then make …
A Methodology For The Selection Of A Paradigm Of Reasoning Under Uncertainty In Expert System Development, Vivian Campbell
A Methodology For The Selection Of A Paradigm Of Reasoning Under Uncertainty In Expert System Development, Vivian Campbell
Theses: Doctorates and Masters
The aim of this thesis is to develop a methodology for the selection of a paradigm of reasoning under uncertainty for the expert system developer. This is important since practical information on how to select a paradigm of reasoning under uncertainty is not generally available. The thesis explores the role of uncertainty in an expert system and considers the process of reasoning under uncertainty. The possible sources of uncertainty are investigated and prove to be crucial to some aspects of the methodology. A variety of Uncertainty Management Techniques (UMTs) are considered, including numeric, symbolic and hybrid methods. Considerably more information …