Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Last Millennium Hurricane Activity Linked To Endogenous Climate Variability, Wenchang Yang, Elizabeth Wallace, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, Julien Emile-Geay, Gregory J. Hakim, Larry W. Horowitz, Richard M. Sullivan, Robert Tardif, Peter J. Van Hengstum, Tyler S. Winkler

OES Faculty Publications

Despite increased Atlantic hurricane risk, projected trends in hurricane frequency in the warming climate are still highly uncertain, mainly due to short instrumental record that limits our understanding of hurricane activity and its relationship to climate. Here we extend the record to the last millennium using two independent estimates: a reconstruction from sedimentary paleohurricane records and a statistical model of hurricane activity using sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We find statistically significant agreement between the two estimates and the late 20th century hurricane frequency is within the range seen over the past millennium. Numerical simulations using a hurricane-permitting climate model suggest …

Integrating Climatological-Hydrodynamic Modeling And Paleohurricane Records To Assess Storm Surge Risk, Amirhosein Begmohammadi, Christine Y. Blackshaw, Ning Lin, Avantika Gori, Elizabeth Wallace, Kerry Emanuel, Jeffrey P. Donnelly

OES Faculty Publications

Sediment cores from blue holes have emerged as a promising tool for extending the record of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, interpreting this archive is challenging because storm surge depends on many parameters including TC intensity, track, and size. In this study, we use climatological-hydrodynamic modeling to interpret paleohurricane sediment records between 1851 and 2016 and assess the storm surge risk for Long Island in The Bahamas. As the historical TC data from 1988 to 2016 is too limited to estimate the surge risk for this area, we use historical event attribution in paleorecords paired with synthetic storm modeling …

Climatological Analysis Of Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Dates And Landfall Characteristics In The North Atlantic And Eastern North Pacific, Nicholas Sava Grondin

Doctoral Dissertations

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are significant hazards to coastal and inland regions across the globe, especially in North America. North America is affected by TCs from two basins, the North Atlantic (NATL) and eastern North Pacific (ENP), with the former being the predominate focus of past research. In this dissertation, I present three studies that directly compare TCs in the NATL and ENP by using the same methods for each basin in studying occurrence dates and intraseasonal variability, effects of environmental parameters on occurrence dates and seasonal forecasting, and the behavior of TCs during the final 36 hours before landfall in …

A Demonstration Of A Simple Methodology Of Flood Prediction For A Coastal City Under Threat Of Sea Level Rise: The Case Of Norfolk, Va, Usa, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Many coastal cities around the world are at risk of increased flooding due to sea level rise (SLR), so here a simple flood prediction method is demonstrated for one city at risk, Norfolk, VA, on the U.S. East Coast. The probability of future flooding is estimated by extending observed hourly water level for 1927–2021 into hourly estimates until 2100. Unlike most other flood prediction methods, the approach here does not use any predetermined probability distribution function of extreme events, and instead a random sampling of past data represents tides and storm surges. The probability of flooding for 3 different flood …

Natural Infrastructure Alternatives Mitigate Hurricane-Driven Flood Vulnerability: Application To Tyndall Air Force Base, Kiara L. Vance

Theses and Dissertations

Hurricane frequency and magnitude intensification are expected over the remainder of the twenty-first century. Uncertainty in future projections requires that coastal communities approach adaptation decisions with caution. Traditional approaches are costly and inflexible. Soft policy adaptations are largely unenforceable. Hard, natural adaptations have emerged as an opportunity to partially mitigate the growing risk of extreme flooding, without the large investments required for traditional approaches, where natural infrastructure already exists. Existing literature for natural adaptations has not leveraged intensification expectations for hurricane events. This research uses multihazard damage evaluation software and spatial analysis to investigate placement of dredged sediment as a …

Climatology, Variability, And Return Periods Of Tropical Cyclone Strikes In The Northeastern And Central Pacific Basins, Nicholas S. Grondin

LSU Master's Theses

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive meteorological phenomena and impact the lives of people who reside along the coast. The American Pacific Coastline borders the second most active TC development region in the world, the northeastern Pacific (NE Pac) basin. This region, along with the Central Pacific (C Pac)-bordering Hawaii is home to a growing population and cities engaged in a variety of economic activities, most prominently agriculture, fishing, and tourism. This study analyzes fifty-two (1966-2017) years of NE Pac and C Pac TCs through applying track data from the National Hurricane Center’s HURDAT2 and a TC size …

Review Of Curbing Catastrophe: Natural Hazards And Risk Reduction In The Modern World, Kira H. Hamman

Numeracy

Timothy H. Dixon. 2017. Curbing Catastrophe: Natural Hazards and Risk Reduction in the Modern World. (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press) 300 pp. ISBN 978-1108113663.

In Curbing Catastrophe, Timothy H. Dixon explores commonalities among natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina, the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, and the meltdown at Fukushima. He identifies communication failure between scientists and policy makers as a major culprit in the devastation that results from such events and offers strategies for improving that communication. He includes optional in-depth scientific and quantitative examinations of the events and the resulting devastation, making the book appropriate for use …

The Increased Risk Of Flooding In Hampton Roads: On The Roles Of Sea Level Rise, Storm Surges, Hurricanes, And The Gulf Stream, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

The impact of sea level rise on increased tidal flooding and storm surges in the Hampton Roads region is demonstrated, using ~90 years of water level measurements in Norfolk, Virginia. Impacts from offshore storms and variations in the Gulf Stream (GS) are discussed as well, in view of recent studies that show that weakening in the flow of the GS (daily, interannually, or decadal) is often related to elevated water levels along the U.S. East Coast. Two types of impacts from hurricanes on flooding in Hampton Roads are demonstrated here. One type is when a hurricane like Isabel (2003) makes …

Virginia Homeowners Handbook: Helping Homeowners Prepare For Hurricanes And Other Natural Hazards, Jon Cawley

News Items

No abstract provided.

Major Hurricane Impact: Is Hampton Roads Ready?, Jon Cawley

News Items

No abstract provided.

Emily Steinhilber Column: Virginia's Leadership In Flood Resilience, Emily E. Steinhilber

News Items

No abstract provided.

Street-Level Inundation Modeling Of Hurricanes Matthew And Hermine And Emerging Flood Monitoring Methods In Hampton Roads, Jon Derek Loftis, H. V. Wang, D R. Forrest

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Determining The Viability Of Recent Storms As Modern Analogues For North-Central Gulf Of Mexico Paleotempestology Through Sedimentary Analysis And Storm Surge Reconstruction, Joshua Caleb Bregy

Master's Theses

The northern Gulf of Mexico has been devastated by recent intense storms. Camille (1969) and Katrina (2005) are two notable hurricanes that made landfall in virtually the same location in Mississippi. However, fully understanding the risks and processes associated with hurricane impacts is impeded by a short and fragmented instrumental record. Paleotempestology could potentially use modern analogues from intense storms in this region to extend the hurricane record back to pre-observational time. Existing empirically based models can back-calculate surge heights over coastal systems as a function of transport distance, particle settling velocity, and gravitational acceleration. We collected cores in a …

Planning And Design For Hurricane Protection With Sea Level Rise, Bob Ivarson

May 22, 2015: Megaproject Protective Structures for Hampton Roads

No abstract provided.

Quantifying The Sensitivity Of Maximum, Limiting, And Potential Tropical Cyclone Intensity To Sst: Observations Versus The Fsu/ Coaps Global Climate Model, Sarah Strazzo, James Elsner, Tim Larow

Publications

No abstract provided.

Towards Predicting Street-Level Inundation: Using Operational Forecast Modeling Techniques During 2011 Hurricane Irene, J. D. Loftis, H. V. Wang, D. R. Forrest

Presentations

Storm surge-induced coastal inundation poses numerous personal, commercial, industrial, and sociopolitical challenges for society. Flooding can be caused by the combination of storm surge and river-induced inland flooding in many locations throughout the coastal plain. The cross-disciplinary nature of the hydrodynamics involved (hydraulics, oceanography, and hydrology), coupled with the complexity of the atmospheric forcing, makes a numerical model the best approach for a comprehensive study of the dynamics of coastal inundation.

This study builds upon the lessons learned from forecast modeling experiences during 2011 Hurricane Irene in Tidewater Virginia, to ascertain the most effective way to approach predicting street-level inundation. …

Dynamical Downscaling Projections Of Twenty-First-Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Cmip3 And Cmip5 Model-Based Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Stephen Garner, Ming Zhao, Hyeong-Seog Kim, Morris Bender, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac M. Held, Gabriele Villarini

CCPO Publications

Twenty-first-century projections of Atlantic climate change are downscaled to explore the robustness of potential changes in hurricane activity. Multimodel ensembles using the phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B; late-twenty-first century) and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5; early- and late-twenty-first century) scenarios are examined. Ten individual CMIP3 models are downscaled to assess the spread of results among the CMIP3 (but not the CMIP5) models. Downscaling simulations are compared for 18-km grid regional and 50-km grid global models. Storm cases from the regional model …

Sensitivity Of Limiting Hurricane Intensity To Sst In The Atlantic From Observations And Gcms, James Elsner, Sarah Strazzo, Thomas H. Jagger, Timothy Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

No abstract provided.

Sensitivity Of Limiting Hurricane Intensity To Ocean Warmth, James B. Elsner, Sarah Strazzo, Jill C. Trepanier, Thomas H. Jagger

Publications

No abstract provided.

Slides: Global Warming And The Endangered Species Act, Kieran Suckling

Shifting Baselines and New Meridians: Water, Resources, Landscapes, and the Transformation of the American West (Summer Conference, June 4-6)

Presenter: Kieran Suckling, Center for Biological Diversity

15 slides

Sustainable Water Policies In The Rocky Mountain West: An Action Agenda, Sarah Bates

Shifting Baselines and New Meridians: Water, Resources, Landscapes, and the Transformation of the American West (Summer Conference, June 4-6)

Presenter: Sarah Bates, Western Progress

10 pages.

Includes bibliographical references

"Review Draft, May 15, 2008"

The Response Of A General Circulation Climate Model Tohigh Latitude Freshwater Forcing In The Atlantic Basinwith Respect Totropi, Victor Paulis

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The current cycle of climate change along with increases in hurricane activity, changing precipitation patterns, glacial melt, and other extremes of weather has led to interest and research into the global correlation or teleconnection between these events. Examination of historical climate records, proxies and observations is leading to formulation of hypotheses of climate dynamics with modeling and simulation being used to test these hypotheses as well as making projections. Ocean currents are believed to be an important factor in climate change with thermohaline circulation (THC) fluctuations being implicated in past cycles of abrupt change. Freshwater water discharge into high-latitude oceans …