Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Breeding For Resilience To Increasing Temperatures: A Field Trial Assessing Genetic Variation In Soft Red Winter Wheat, Kathleen Russell, David Van Sanford

Plant and Soil Sciences Faculty Publications

Breeding for resilience to climate change is a daunting prospect. Crop and climate models tell us that global wheat yields are likely to decline as the climate warms, causing a significant risk to global food security. High temperatures are known to affect crop development yet breeding for tolerance to heat stress is difficult to achieve in field environments. We conducted an active warming study over two years to quantify the effects of heat stress on genetic variation of soft red winter (SRW) wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Forty SRW cultivars and breeding lines were chosen based on marker genotypes at …

The 'New Normal' Of Flooding In Portsmouth, Virginia: Perspectives, Experiences, And Adaptive Responses Of Residents And Business Owners In Low To Moderate-Income Communities, Donta Council, Michelle Covi, Wie Yusuf, Joshua Behr, Makayla Brown, Old Dominion University Resilience Collaborative, Virginia Sea Grant

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

[First three paragraphs from the Summary]

This project is a part of a broader initiative - the Resilience Adaptation Feasibility Tool (RAFT) - that addresses the daunting challenges coastal communities are facing related to sea level rise and climate change (more information about RAFT is available here: https://ien.virginia.edu/raft).

This aim of this project was to investigate how residents and business owners in low-to-moderate income communities in Portsmouth, Virginia cope with flooding, and to assess implications for how the local government can better engage with residents to better meet their information needs so they can be more resilient to flooding. The …

Visualizing Extreme Precipitation For Climate Storytelling, Rachel Phinney

Honors Theses

Precipitation can have adverse effects in the climate ecosystem. Too much can impose concerns such as flooding and landslides, resulting in damaged property, agricultural losses, and loss of life. Too little, and drought becomes an issue, inducing wildfires, poor air quality, agricultural losses, and health degradation. The contiguous United States has experienced an increase in precipitation since 1900, and much of this has occurred in the most recent decades. By the end of the 21st Century, it is expected that more winter and spring precipitation will occur over the northern portion of the U.S., and less in the southwest. While …

Sea Squad, Liam Geary Baulch

The Goose

The Sea Squad is a band of cheerleaders against climate change. Taking action as a team in formation, they gather momentum, inviting all people to cheer with them, mimicking the infinitely expandable nature of the seas' molecular structure. The work was developed and performed as a bilingual project at Est-Nord-Est in Saint-Jean-Port-Joli, Quebec, Canada, and has since been performed and exhibited internationally. The following poems are some of the chants that Sea Squad use to get a crowd cheering together against climate change.

Does Environment Filtering Or Seed Limitation Determine Post-Fire Forest Recovery Patterns In Boreal Larch Forests?, Wen H. Cai, Zhihua Liu, Yuan Z. Yang, Jian Yang

Forestry and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Wildfire is a primary natural disturbance in boreal forests, and post-fire vegetation recovery rate influences carbon, water, and energy exchange between the land and atmosphere in the region. Seed availability and environmental filtering are two important determinants in regulating post-fire vegetation recovery in boreal forests. Quantifying how these determinants change over time is helpful for understanding post-fire forest successional trajectory. Time series of remote sensing data offer considerable potential in monitoring the trajectory of post-fire vegetation recovery dynamics beyond current field surveys about structural attributes, which generally lack a temporal perspective across large burned areas. We used a time series …

Natural And Managed Watersheds Show Similar Responses To Recent Climate Change, Darren L. Ficklin, John T. Abatzoglou, Scott M. Robeson, Sarah E. Null, Jason H. Knouft

Watershed Sciences Faculty Publications

Changes in climate are driving an intensification of the hydrologic cycle and leading to alterations of natural streamflow regimes. Human disturbances such as dams, land-cover change, and water diversions are thought to obscure climate signals in hydrologic systems. As a result, most studies of changing hydroclimatic conditions are limited to areas with natural streamflow. Here, we compare trends in observed streamflow from natural and human-modified watersheds in the United States and Canada for the 1981–2015 water years to evaluate whether comparable responses to climate change are present in both systems. We find that patterns and magnitudes of trends in median …

High Net Loss Of Intertidal Wetland Coverage In A Maine Estuary By Year 2100, Jack R. Mclachlan

Biology and Ecology Faculty Scholarship

Rising sea levels and coastal land use are predicted to synergistically impact coastal wetlands by reducing their extent and ecosystem functioning through a process known as “coastal squeeze”. Impervious surfaces associated with coastal development prevent the natural process of wetland migration, whereby intertidal wetland area is lost at its seaward edge to rising low water lines, but is replaced by eroding uplands and accumulating new wetland at its landward edge. As these constructed surfaces prevent the replacement of lost wetland, intertidal wetlands are “squeezed” by rising sea levels until they disappear. This study uses geographic information system (GIS) to predict …

Review Of Curbing Catastrophe: Natural Hazards And Risk Reduction In The Modern World, Kira H. Hamman

Numeracy

Timothy H. Dixon. 2017. Curbing Catastrophe: Natural Hazards and Risk Reduction in the Modern World. (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press) 300 pp. ISBN 978-1108113663.

In Curbing Catastrophe, Timothy H. Dixon explores commonalities among natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina, the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, and the meltdown at Fukushima. He identifies communication failure between scientists and policy makers as a major culprit in the devastation that results from such events and offers strategies for improving that communication. He includes optional in-depth scientific and quantitative examinations of the events and the resulting devastation, making the book appropriate for use …

Farm Service Agency Employee Intentions To Use Weather And Climate Data In Professional Services, Rachel E. Schattman, Gabrielle Roesch-Mcnally, Sarah Wiener, Meredith T. Niles, David Y. Hollinger

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

This is a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.. Agricultural service providers often work closely with producers, and are well positioned to include weather and climate change information in the services they provide. By doing so, they can help producers reduce risks due to climate variability and change. A national survey of United States Department of …

Regional Trends In Early-Monsoon Rainfall Over Vietnam And Ccsm4 Attribution, Rong Li, S.-Y. Simon Wang, Robert R. Gillies, Brendan Buckley, Jin-Ho Yoon, Changrae Cho

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

The analysis of precipitation trends for Vietnam revealed that early-monsoon precipitation has increased over the past three decades but to varying degrees over the northern, central and southern portions of the country. Upon investigation, it was found that the change in early-monsoon precipitation is associated with changes in the low-level cyclonic airflow over the South China Sea and Indochina that is embedded in the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with a “La Niña-like” anomalous sea surface temperature pattern with warming in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and cooling in the eastern Pacific. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) …

Predicting Effects Of Climate Change And Sea Level Rise On Hydrologic Processes In A Mid-Atlantic Coastal Watershed, Rui Li

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation assessed impacts of Climate Change (CC) and Sea Level Rise (SLR) on coastal hydrologic processes using the Lynnhaven River watershed as a test bed. The watershed is part of Chesapeake Bay Watershed and hydraulically connected with mid-Atlantic Ocean. Six CC scenarios were considered in terms of eight Regional Climate Models’ predictions for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission assumptions, namely, B1, A1B, and A2, for two future periods, namely 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2099. The ensemble means of downscaling results from four methods were used to represent the future climates. On the other hand, …

Climate Change: Aristotelian Virtue Theory, The Aidōs Response And Proper Primility, John W. Voelpel

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Climate change is the first anthropogenic alteration of a global Earth system. It is globally catastrophic in terms of food production, sea level rise, fresh water availability, temperature elevation, ocean acidification, species disturbance and destruction to name just a few crisis concerns. In addition, while those changes are occurring now, they are amplifying over decadal periods and will last for centuries and possibly millennia. While there are a number of pollutants involved, carbon dioxide (CO2) which results from the combustion of any fossil fuel is the primary pollutant. It has not been considered a pollutant until recently because of its …

Rain Rituals As A Barometer Of Vulnerability In An Uncertain Climate, L. Jen Shaffer

Journal of Ecological Anthropology

Researchers and aid agencies, seeking to improve their understanding of local climate change responses, adaptation, and vulnerability, frequently interact with communities around the world who strongly emphasize their religious beliefs and practices. Dismissal and misunderstandings of these local perspectives can slow assessments of local climate vulnerability and development of adaptive capacity. In this paper, I show how analysis of rain ritual failure exposes the multiple stressors Ronga communities in southern Mozambique face, and as such, serves as a proxy measure for climate vulnerability at the local level. Oral histories and targeted interviews with participating elders, local chiefs, and community members …

Precipitation Extremes In Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios Over The Greater Horn Of Africa, Andualem Shiferaw, Tsegaye Tadesse, Clinton M. Rowe, Robert Oglesby

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study first assesses the performance of regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing observed extreme precipitation indices over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region during 1989–2005. The study then assesses projected changes in these extremes during 2069–2098 compared to 1976–2005. The Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations are made using two RCMs, with large-scale forcing from four CMIP5 Global limate Models(GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of moderate precipitation extreme indices (MPEI). Pattern correlation coefficients between simulated and observed MPEI …

Economic Contributions Of Winter Sports In A Changing Climate, Hagenstad Consulting, Inc., Elizabeth Burakowski, Rebecca Hill

Earth Systems Research Center

In mountain towns across the United States that rely on winter tourism, snow is

currency. For snow lovers and the winter sports industry, predictions of a future with

warmer winters, reduced snowfall, and shorter snow seasons is inspiring them to

innovate, increase their own efforts to address emissions, and speak publicly on the

urgent need for action.

This report examines the economic contribution of winter snow sports tourism to

U.S. national and state-level economies. In a 2012 analysis, Protect Our Winters and

the Natural Resources Defense Council found that the winter sports tourism industry

generates $12.2 billion and 23 million …

Mixed Methods Approach To Understanding Farmer And Agricultural Advisor Perceptions Of Climate Change And Adaptation In Vermont, United States, Rachel E. Schattman, V. Ernesto Méndez, Scott C. Merrill, Asim Zia

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

The relationships among farmers’ belief in climate change, perceptions of climate-related risk, and use of climate adaptation practices is a growing topic of interest in U.S. scholarship. The northeast region is not well represented in the literature, although it is highly agricultural and will likely face climate-related risks that differ from those faced in other regions. We used a mixed methods approach to examine northeast farmers’ perceptions of climate change and climate-related risks over time, and perceived trade-offs associated with on-farm practices. Our investigation shows how northeastern farmers think about climate-risk, and what they are doing to address it.

Scientific And Technical Advisory Committee Review Of The Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’S Climate Change Assessment Framework And Programmatic Integration And Response Efforts, Maria Hermann, Scott Doney, Tal Ezer, Keryn Gedan, Philip Morefield, Barbara Muhling, Douglas Pirhalla, Stephen Shaw

CCPO Publications

[From the Executive Summary] The following report presents a synthesis of reviewer responses from the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee’s (STAC) panel on the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’s Climate Change Assessment Framework (CCAF) and Programmatic Integration and Response Efforts. The enclosed findings and recommendations are in response to the 16 questions delivered to the panel (Appendix A).

In summary, given the current state of knowledge, the combination of using climate model projections and downscaling provides an acceptable baseline for estimating changing climate conditions for the Chesapeake Bay, and the panel finds the CCAF approach to be fundamentally sound. However, the …

The Climate-Smart Village Approach: Framework Of An Integrative Strategy For Scaling Up Adaptation Options In Agriculture, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Andy Jarvis, Bruce M. Campbell, Robert B. Zougmoré, Arun Khatri-Chhetri, Sonja J. Vermeulen, Ana Maria Loboguerrero, Leocadio S. Sebastian, James Kinyangi, Osana Bonilla-Findji, Maren Radeny, John Recha, Deissy Martinez-Baron, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Sophia Huyer, Philip Thornton, Eva Wollenberg, James Hansen, Patricia Alvarez-Toro, Andrés Aguilar-Ariza, David Arango-Londoño, Victor Patiño-Bravo, Ovidio Rivera, Mathieu Ouedraogo, Bui Tan Yen

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Increasing weather risks threaten agricultural production systems and food security across the world. Maintaining agricultural growth while minimizing climate shocks is crucial to building a resilient food production system and meeting developmental goals in vulnerable countries. Experts have proposed several technological, institutional, and policy interventions to help farmers adapt to current and future weather variability and to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper presents the climate-smart village (CSV) approach as a means of performing agricultural research for development that robustly tests technological and institutional options for dealing with climatic variability and climate change in agriculture using participatory methods. It …

Going Negative: The Next Horizon In Climate Engineering Law, Tracy Hester, Michael B. Gerrard

Faculty Scholarship

As the global community struggles to turn the Paris Agreement’s commitments into meaningful emission reductions and the United States turbulently reverses its climate policies, the potential role of “negative emissions technologies” and other climate engineering approaches is drawing increasingly serious attention. These technologies are engineering on the grandest scale: climate engineering seeks to offset the effects of anthropogenic climate change by either altering the solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface or changing the composition of the atmosphere itself. Specifically, negative emissions technologies would directly remove greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the ambient air and help to remove accumulated atmospheric carbon dioxide …

Climate Change Challenges For Land Conservation: Rethinking Conservation Easements, Strategies, And Tools, W. William Weeks, Jessica Owley, Federico Cheever, Adena R. Rissman, M. Rebecca Shaw, Barton H. Thompson

Articles by Maurer Faculty

Climate change has significant consequences for land conservation. Government agencies and nonprofit land trusts heavily rely on perpetual conservation easements. However, climate change and other dynamic landscape changes raise questions about the effectiveness and adaptability of permanent conservation instruments like conservation easements. Building upon a study of 269 conservation easements and interviews with seventy conservation-easement professionals in six different states, we examine the adaptability of conservation easements to climate change. We outline four potential approaches to enhance conservation outcomes under climate change: (1) shift land-acquisition priorities to account for potential climate-change impacts; (2) consider conservation tools other than perpetual conservation …

Global Sea-Level Budget 1993-Present, Wcrp Global Sea Level Budget Group, Benjamin Hamlington

CCPO Publications

Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g.,acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled "Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts", an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the …

Climate-Change-Driven Accelerated Sea-Level Rise Detected In The Altimeter Era, R. S. Nerem, B. D. Beckley, J. T. Fasullo, B. D. Hamlington, D. Masters, G. T. Mitchum

CCPO Publications

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y². Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections.

Urban Areas In Coastal Zones, Richard C. Dawson, M. Shah Alam Khan, Vivien Gornitz, Maria Fernanda Lemos, Larry Atkinson, Julie Pullen, Juan Camilo Osorio, Lindsay Usher, Cynthia Rosenzweig (Ed.), William Solecki (Ed.), Patricia Romero-Lankao (Ed.), Shagun Mehrotra (Ed.), Shobhakar Dhakal (Ed.), Somayya Ali Ibrahim (Ed.)

CCPO Publications

[First Paragraph] Coastal cities have been subjected to extreme weather events since the onset of urbanization. Climatic change, in particular sea level rise, coupled with rapid urban development are amplifying the challenge of managing risks to coastal cities. Moreover, urban expansion and changes and intensification in land use further pressure sensitive coastal environments through pollution and habitat loss.

Climate Change And Eutrophication: A Short Review, Mohammad Nazari-Sharabian, Sajjad Ahmad, Moses Karakouzian

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Water resources are vital not only for human beings but essentially all ecosystems. Human health is at risk if clean drinking water becomes contaminated. Water is also essential for agriculture, manufacturing, energy production and other diverse uses. Therefore, a changing climate and its potential effects put more pressure on water resources. Climate change may cause increased water demand as a result of rising temperatures and evaporation while decreasing water availability. On the other hand, extreme events as a result of climate change can increase surface runoff and flooding, deteriorating water quality as well. One effect is water eutrophication, which occurs …

Long-Term Changes In Extreme Air Pollution Meteorology And Implications For Air Quality, Pei Hou

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Extreme air pollution meteorology, such as heat waves, temperature inversions, and atmospheric stagnation episodes, can significantly affect air quality. In this study, we analyze their long-term trends and the potential impacts on air quality. The significant increasing trends for the occurrences of extreme meteorological events in 1951-2010 are identified with the reanalysis data, especially over the continental regions. A statistical analysis combining air quality data and meteorological data indicates strong sensitivities of air quality, including both average air pollutant concentrations and high pollution episodes, to extreme meteorological events. Results also show significant seasonal and spatial variations in the sensitivity of …

Electricity Markets And The Social Project Of Decarbonization, Shelley Welton

All Faculty Scholarship

Decarbonization is the process of converting our economy from one that runs predominantly on energy derived from fossil fuels to one that runs almost exclusively on clean, carbon-free energy. If pursued on the scale that experts believe necessary to prevent dangerous climate change, the infrastructure changes required to decarbonize the United States will have significant social and cultural implications. States aggressively pursuing decarbonization have adopted policies reflecting their understanding that decarbonization is a social project implicating numerous value choices. Various state decarbonization policies combine the aim of decarbonization with job promotion, economic development, income redistribution, urban revitalization, open-space preservation, and …