Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Impacts Of Multiple Environmental Changes On Long‐Term Nitrogen Loading From The Chesapeake Bay Watershed, Shufen Pan, Zihao Bian, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Raymond G. Najjar, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Eileen E. Hofmann, Rongting Xu, Bowen Zhang

CCPO Publications

Excessive nutrient inputs from land, particularly nitrogen (N), have been found to increase the occurrence of hypoxia and harmful algal blooms in coastal ecosystems. To identify the main contributors of increased N loading and evaluate the efficacy of water pollution control policies, it is essential to quantify and attribute the long‐term changes in riverine N export. Here, we use a state‐of‐the‐art terrestrial–aquatic interface model to examine how multiple environmental factors may have affected N export from the Chesapeake Bay watershed since 1900. These factors include changes in climate, carbon dioxide, land use, and N inputs (i.e., atmospheric N deposition, animal …

Estuarine Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux From Space: With Application To Chesapeake And Delaware Bays, Sergio R. Signorini, Antonio Mannino, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent, John Wilkin, Aboozar Tabatabai, Raymond G. Najjar, Eileen E. Hofmann, Fei Da, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao

CCPO Publications

This study uses a neural network model trained with in situ data, combined with satellite data and hydrodynamic model products, to compute the daily estuarine export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at the mouths of Chesapeake Bay (CB) and Delaware Bay (DB) from 2007 to 2011. Both bays show large flux variability with highest fluxes in spring and lowest in fall as well as interannual flux variability (0.18 and 0.27 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2010 for CB; 0.04 and 0.09 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2011 for DB). Based on previous estimates of total organic carbon (TOCexp) exported by …

Scientific And Technical Advisory Committee Review Of The Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’S Climate Change Assessment Framework And Programmatic Integration And Response Efforts, Maria Hermann, Scott Doney, Tal Ezer, Keryn Gedan, Philip Morefield, Barbara Muhling, Douglas Pirhalla, Stephen Shaw

CCPO Publications

[From the Executive Summary] The following report presents a synthesis of reviewer responses from the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee’s (STAC) panel on the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’s Climate Change Assessment Framework (CCAF) and Programmatic Integration and Response Efforts. The enclosed findings and recommendations are in response to the 16 questions delivered to the panel (Appendix A).

In summary, given the current state of knowledge, the combination of using climate model projections and downscaling provides an acceptable baseline for estimating changing climate conditions for the Chesapeake Bay, and the panel finds the CCAF approach to be fundamentally sound. However, the …

Investigating Physical Processes Associated With Chesapeake Bay And Changjiang Estuary, Arash Niroomandi

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Coastal and estuaries are landforms that not only have great impacts on large marine ecosystem, but also play a significant role in moderating or aggravating natural hazards and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. This dissertation explores some of the concerns associated with coasts and coastal systems. In the second chapter, a thirty seven year wave hindcast (1979-2015) in Chesapeake Bay using NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) wind is presented. The long-term significant wave heights are generated by the third-generation nearshore wave model SWAN, which is validated using the wave height measurements at buoy stations …

Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar Survey Of Subsidence In Hampton Roads, Virginia (Usa), D.P.S. Bekaert, B. D. Hamlington, B. Buzzanga, C. E. Jones

CCPO Publications

Over the past century, the Hampton Roads area of the Chesapeake Bay region has experienced one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United States. This rate of relative sea level rise results from a combination of land subsidence, which has long been known to be present in the region, and rising seas associated with global warming on long timescales and exacerbated by shifts in ocean dynamics on shorter timescales. An understanding of the current-day magnitude of each component is needed to create accurate projections of future relative sea level rise upon …

Twenty-First Century Climate Change And Submerged Aquatic Vegetation In A Temperate Estuary: The Case Of Chesapeake Bay, Thomas M. Arnold, Richard C. Zimmerman, Katharina A.M. Engelhardt, J. Court Stevenson

OES Faculty Publications

Introduction: The Chesapeake Bay was once renowned for expansive meadows of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). However, only 10% of the original meadows survive. Future restoration effortswill be complicated by accelerating climate change, including physiological stressors such as a predicted mean temperature increase of 2-6°C and a 50-160% increase in CO2 concentrations.

Outcomes: As the Chesapeake Bay begins to exhibit characteristics of a subtropical estuary, summer heat waves will become more frequent and severe. Warming alone would eventually eliminate eelgrass (Zostera marina) from the region. It will favor native heat-tolerant species such as widgeon grass (Ruppia maritima) while facilitating colonization by …

Total Water Level And Wave Run Up Forecast, Eric Seymour

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Sea Level Rise In Virginia – Causes, Effects And Response, Tal Ezer, Larry P. Atkinson

Virginia Journal of Science

Sea level rise (SLR) along Virginia’s coasts and around the Chesapeake Bay as measured by tide gauges is analyzed and discussed. It is shown that the SLR rates vary between one location to another and in most locations the rates increase over time (i.e., SLR is accelerating). The latest science of SLR is reviewed and the causes of the high SLR rates in Virginia are discussed. The impacts of land subsidence and ocean currents (changes in the Gulf Stream in particular) on sea level are especially notable and important for predicting future SLR in Virginia. The consequences of SLR on …

Can We Predict The Future: Juvenile Finfish And Their Seagrass Nurseries In The Chesapeake Bay, Cynthia M. Jones

OES Faculty Publications

The importance of estuarine seagrass beds as nurseries for juvenile fish has become a universal paradigm, especially for estuaries that are as important as the Chesapeake Bay. Yet, scientific tests of this hypothesis were equivocal depending on species, location, and metrics. Moreover, seagrasses themselves are under threat and one-third of seagrasses have disappeared worldwide with 65 of their losses occurring in estuaries. Although there have been extensive studies of seagrasses in the Chesapeake Bay, surprisingly few studies have quantified the relationship between seagrass as nurseries for finfish in the Bay. Of the few studies that have directly evaluated the use …

Understanding How Disease And Environment Combine To Structure Resistance In Estuarine Bivalve Populations, Eileen E. Hofmann, David Bushek, Susan E. Ford, Ximing Guo, Dale Haidvogel, Dennis Hedgecock, John M. Klinck, Coren Milbury, Diego Narvaez, Eric Powell, Yongping Wang, Zhiren Wang, Liusuo Zhang

CCPO Publications

Delaware Bay oyster (Crassostrea virginica) populations are influenced by two lethal parasites that cause Dermo and MSX diseases. As part of the US National Science Foundation Ecology of Infectious Diseases initiative, a program developed for Delaware Bay focuses on understanding how oyster population genetics and population dynamics interact with the environment and these parasites to structure he host populations, and how these interactions might modified by climate change. Laboratory and field studies undertaken during this program include identifying genes related to MSX and Dermo disease resistance, potential regions for refugia and the mechanisms that allow them to exist, …