Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

On The Links Between Sea Level And Temperature Variations In The Chesapeake Bay And The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), Tal Ezer, Teresa Updyke

CCPO Publications

Recent studies found that on long time scales there are often unexplained opposite trends in sea level variability between the upper and lower Chesapeake Bay (CB). Therefore, daily sea level and temperature records were analyzed in two locations, Norfolk in the southern CB and Baltimore in the northern CB; surface currents from Coastal Ocean Dynamics Application Radar (CODAR) near the mouth of CB were also analyzed to examine connections between the CB and the Atlantic Ocean. The observations in the bay were compared with daily Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) observations during 2005–2021. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) analysis was used …

Nrlmsis 2.1: An Empirical Model Of Nitric Oxide Incorporated Into Msis, J. T. Emmert, M. Jones Jr., D. E. Siskind, D. P. Drob, J. M. Picone, M. H. Stevens, S. M. Bailey, S. Bender, P. F. Bernath, B. Funke, M. E. Hervig, K. Pérot

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

We have developed an empirical model of nitric oxide (NO) number density at altitudes from ∼73 km to the exobase, as a function of altitude, latitude, day of year, solar zenith angle, solar activity, and geomagnetic activity. The model is part of the NRLMSIS® 2.1 empirical model of atmospheric temperature and species densities; this upgrade to NRLMSIS 2.0 consists solely of the addition of NO. MSIS 2.1 assimilates observations from six space-based instruments: UARS/HALOE, SNOE, Envisat/MIPAS, ACE/FTS, Odin/SMR, and AIM/SOFIE. We additionally evaluated the new model against independent extant NO data sets. In this paper, we describe the formulation and …

Fast And Pervasive Transcriptomic Resilience And Acclimation Of Extremely Heat-Tolerant Coral Holobionts From The Northern Red Sea, Romain Savary, Daniel J. Barshis, Christian R. Voolstra, Anny Cárdenas, Nicolas R. Evensen, Guilhem Banc-Prandi, Maoz Fine, Anders Meiborn

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Corals from the northern Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba exhibit extreme thermal tolerance. To examine the underlying gene expression dynamics, we exposed Stylophora pistillata from the Gulf of Aqaba to short-term (hours) and long-term (weeks) heat stress with peak seawater temperatures ranging from their maximum monthly mean of 27 °C (baseline) to 29.5 °C, 32 °C, and 34.5 °C. Corals were sampled at the end of the heat stress as well as after a recovery period at baseline temperature. Changes in coral host and symbiotic algal gene expression were determined via RNA-sequencing (RNA-Seq). Shifts in coral microbiome composition were …

Should We Expect Each Year In The Next Decade (2019–28) To Be Ranked Among The Top 10 Warmest Years Globally?, Anthony Arguez, Shannan Hurley, Anand Inamdar, Laurel Mahoney, Ahira Sanchez-Lugo, Lilian Yang

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Annual rankings of global temperature are widely cited by media and the general public, not only to place the most recent year in a historical perspective, but also as a first-order metric of recent climate change that is easily digestible by the general public. Moreover, all annual NOAAGlobalTemp anomalies from 1880 (the earliest reading available) through the mid-1970s are well below anomalies of the top 10 warmest years in Table 1, even when considering the uncertainty of the NOAAGlobalTemp time series values. While we expect the algorithm's performance to be largely independent of any changes made to the way that …

Nrlmsis 2.0: A Whole-Atmosphere Empirical Model Of Temperature And Neutral Species Densities, J. T. Emmert, D. P. Drob, J. M. Picone, D. E. Siskind, M. Jones Jr., M. G. Mlynczak, Peter F. Bernath, X. Chu, E. Doornbos, B. Funke, L. P. Goncharenko, M. E. Hervig, M. J. Schwartz, P. E. Sheese, F. Vargas, B. P. Williams, T. Yuan

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

NRLMSIS® 2.0 is an empirical atmospheric model that extends from the ground to the exobase and describes the average observed behavior of temperature, eight species densities, and mass density via a parametric analytic formulation. The model inputs are location, day of year, time of day, solar activity, and geomagnetic activity. NRLMSIS 2.0 is a major, reformulated upgrade of the previous version, NRLMSISE-00. The model now couples thermospheric species densities to the entire column, via an effective mass profile that transitions each species from the fully mixed region below ~70 km altitude to the diffusively separated region above ~200 km. Other …

Comparison Of Observed And Simulated Drop Size Distributions From Large Eddy Simulations With Bin Microphysics, Mikael K. White, Patrick Y. Chuang, Orlando Ayala, Lian-Ping Wang, Graham Feingold

Engineering Technology Faculty Publications

Two case studies of marine stratocumulus (one nocturnal and drizzling, the other daytime and nonprecipitating) are simulated by the UCLA large-eddy simulation model with bin microphysics for comparison with aircraft in situ observations. A high-bin-resolution variant of the microphysics is implemented for closer comparison with cloud drop size distribution (DSD) observations and a turbulent collision–coalescence kernel to evaluate the role of turbulence on drizzle formation. Simulations agree well with observational constraints, reproducing observed thermodynamic profiles (i.e., liquid water potential temperature and total moisture mixing ratio) as well as liquid water path. Cloud drop number concentration and liquid water content profiles …

High Frequency Temperature Variability Reduces The Risk Of Coral Bleaching, Aryan Safaie, Nyssa J. Silbiger, Timothy R. Mcclanahan, Geno Pawlak, Daniel J. Barshis, James L. Hench, Gareth J. Williams, Kristen A. Davis

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Coral bleaching is the detrimental expulsion of algal symbionts from their cnidarian hosts, and predominantly occurs when corals are exposed to thermal stress. The incidence and severity of bleaching is often spatially heterogeneous within reef-scales (km), and is therefore not predictable using conventional remote sensing products. Here, we systematically assess the relationship between in situ measurements of 20 environmental variables, along with seven remotely sensed SST thermal stress metrics, and 81 observed bleaching events at coral reef locations spanning five major reef regions globally. We find that high-frequency temperature variability (i.e., daily temperature range) was the most influential factor in …

Twenty-First Century Climate Change And Submerged Aquatic Vegetation In A Temperate Estuary: The Case Of Chesapeake Bay, Thomas M. Arnold, Richard C. Zimmerman, Katharina A.M. Engelhardt, J. Court Stevenson

OES Faculty Publications

Introduction: The Chesapeake Bay was once renowned for expansive meadows of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). However, only 10% of the original meadows survive. Future restoration effortswill be complicated by accelerating climate change, including physiological stressors such as a predicted mean temperature increase of 2-6°C and a 50-160% increase in CO2 concentrations.

Outcomes: As the Chesapeake Bay begins to exhibit characteristics of a subtropical estuary, summer heat waves will become more frequent and severe. Warming alone would eventually eliminate eelgrass (Zostera marina) from the region. It will favor native heat-tolerant species such as widgeon grass (Ruppia maritima) while facilitating colonization by …

An Iron-Based Ecosystem Model Of The Central Equatorial Pacific, Carrie L. Leonard, Charles R. Mcclain, Ragu Murtugudde, Eileen E. Hofmann, Lawrence W. Harding Jr.

CCPO Publications

The central and eastern equatorial Pacific region is characterized by lower than expected phytoplankton biomass and primary production given the relatively high ambient nitrate concentrations. These unusual conditions have spawned several field programs and laboratory experiments to determine why this high nitrate-low chlorophyll pattern persists in this region. To synthesize the results from these field programs, as well as providing additional evidence in support of the iron hypothesis, we developed a one-dimensional, nine-component ecosystem model of 0 degrees N 140 degrees W. The model components include two phytoplankton size fractions, two zooplankton size fractions, two detrital size fractions, dissolved iron, …

Frontogenesis In The North Pacific Oceanic Frontal Zones--A Numerical Simulation, Michael S. Dinniman, Michele M. Rienecker

CCPO Publications

A primitive equation model [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL's) MOM 2] with one degree horizontal resolution is used to simulate the seasonal cycle of frontogenesis in the subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) and the subtropical frontal zone (STFZ) of the North Pacific Ocean. The SAFZ in the model contains deep (greater than 500 m in some places) regions with seasonally varying high gradients in temperature and salinity. The gradients generally weaken toward the east. The STFZ consists of a relatively shallow (less than 200 m in most places) region of high gradient in temperature that disappears in the summer/fall. The high …