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Articles 1 - 14 of 14
Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Quantifying The Economic Costs Of Global Warming, Christopher W. Callahan
Quantifying The Economic Costs Of Global Warming, Christopher W. Callahan
Dartmouth College Ph.D Dissertations
Climate change poses a threat to the well-being of people across the globe. Rising global temperatures will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events, threatening the lives and livelihoods of vulnerable people. Yet the magnitude and persistence of these economic impacts are poorly understood, making it difficult both to design equitable mitigation and adaptation strategies and to hold emitters accountable for the impacts of their emissions. In this thesis, I combine methods from detection and attribution, climate projection, and causal inference to understand the global economic consequences of past and future climate change. I show that two extreme …
Mechanisms Of Abrupt Extreme Precipitation Change Over The Northeastern United States, Huanping Huang, Jonathan M. Winter, Erich C. Osterberg
Mechanisms Of Abrupt Extreme Precipitation Change Over The Northeastern United States, Huanping Huang, Jonathan M. Winter, Erich C. Osterberg
Dartmouth Scholarship
In 1996, the northeastern United States experienced an abrupt increase in extreme precipitation, but the causal mechanisms driving this increase remain poorly understood. We find that 89% of the 1996–2016 increase relative to 1979–1995 is explained by only 273 unique extreme events affecting >5 stations and occurring in the months of February, March, June, July, September, and October. We use daily weather maps to classify the 273 extreme precipitation events by meteorological cause (tropical cyclones, fronts, and extratropical cyclones) and use reanalysis data to determine large‐scale changes in the atmosphere and ocean associated with increased extreme precipitation for each classification. …
Coupled Impacts Of Climate And Land Use Change Across A River–Lake Continuum: Insights From An Integrated Assessment Model Of Lake Champlain’S Missisquoi Basin, 2000–2040, Asim Zia, Arne Bomblies, Andrew W. Schroth, Christopher Koliba, Peter D.F. Isles, Yushiou Tsai, Ibrahim N. Mohammed, Gabriela Bucini, Patrick J. Clemins, Scott Turnbull, Morgan Rodgers, Ahmed Hamed, Brian Beckage, Jonathan Winter, Carol Adair, Gillian L. Galford, Donna Rizzo, Judith Van Houten
Coupled Impacts Of Climate And Land Use Change Across A River–Lake Continuum: Insights From An Integrated Assessment Model Of Lake Champlain’S Missisquoi Basin, 2000–2040, Asim Zia, Arne Bomblies, Andrew W. Schroth, Christopher Koliba, Peter D.F. Isles, Yushiou Tsai, Ibrahim N. Mohammed, Gabriela Bucini, Patrick J. Clemins, Scott Turnbull, Morgan Rodgers, Ahmed Hamed, Brian Beckage, Jonathan Winter, Carol Adair, Gillian L. Galford, Donna Rizzo, Judith Van Houten
Dartmouth Scholarship
Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher- variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and …
The Wais Divide Deep Ice Core Wd2014 Chronology – Part 2: Annual-Layer Counting (0–31 Ka Bp), Michael Sigl, Tyler J. Fudge, Mai Winstrup, Jihong Cole-Dai, David Ferris
The Wais Divide Deep Ice Core Wd2014 Chronology – Part 2: Annual-Layer Counting (0–31 Ka Bp), Michael Sigl, Tyler J. Fudge, Mai Winstrup, Jihong Cole-Dai, David Ferris
Dartmouth Scholarship
We present the WD2014 chronology for the upper part (0–2850 m; 31.2 ka BP) of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide (WD) ice core. The chronology is based on counting of annual layers observed in the chemical, dust and electrical conductivity records. These layers are caused by seasonal changes in the source, transport, and deposition of aerosols. The measurements were interpreted manually and with the aid of two automated methods. We validated the chronology by comparing to two high-accuracy, absolutely dated chronologies. For the Holocene, the cosmogenic isotope records of Be from WAIS Divide and C for IntCal13 demonstrated …
Influence Of Sea Ice On Arctic Precipitation, Ben G. Kopec, Xiahong Feng, Fred A. Michel, Eric S. Posmentier
Influence Of Sea Ice On Arctic Precipitation, Ben G. Kopec, Xiahong Feng, Fred A. Michel, Eric S. Posmentier
Dartmouth Scholarship
Global climate is influenced by the Arctic hydrologic cycle, which is, in part, regulated by sea ice through its control on evaporation and precipitation. However, the quantitative link between precipitation and sea ice extent is poorly constrained. Here we present observational evidence for the response of precipitation to sea ice reduction and assess the sensitivity of the response. Changes in the proportion of moisture sourced from the Arctic with sea ice change in the Canadian Arctic and Greenland Sea regions over the past two decades are inferred from annually averaged deuterium excess (d-excess) measurements from six sites. Other influences on …
Trade-Offs Between Three Forest Ecosystem Services Across The State Of New Hampshire, Usa: Timber, Carbon, And Albedo, David A. Lutz, Elizabeth A. Burakowski, Mackenzie B. Murphy, Mark E. Borsuk
Trade-Offs Between Three Forest Ecosystem Services Across The State Of New Hampshire, Usa: Timber, Carbon, And Albedo, David A. Lutz, Elizabeth A. Burakowski, Mackenzie B. Murphy, Mark E. Borsuk
Dartmouth Scholarship
Forests are more frequently being managed to store and sequester carbon for the purposes of climate change mitigation. Generally, this practice involves long-term conservation of intact mature forests and/or reductions in the frequency and intensity of timber harvests. However, incorporating the influence of forest surface albedo often suggests that long rotation lengths may not always be optimal in mitigating climate change in forests characterized by frequent snowfall. To address this, we investigated trade-offs between three ecosystem services: carbon storage, albedo-related radiative forcing, and timber provisioning. We calculated optimal rotation length at 498 diverse Forest Inventory and Analysis forest sites in …
Coast-To-Interior Gradient In Recent Northwest Greenland Precipitation Trends (1952–2012), G J. Wong, E C. Osterberg, R L. Hawley, Z R. Courville, D G. Ferris, J A. Howley
Coast-To-Interior Gradient In Recent Northwest Greenland Precipitation Trends (1952–2012), G J. Wong, E C. Osterberg, R L. Hawley, Z R. Courville, D G. Ferris, J A. Howley
Dartmouth Scholarship
The spatial and temporal variability of precipitation on the Greenland ice sheet is an essential component of surface mass balance, which has been declining in recent years with rising temperatures. We present an analysis of precipitation trends in northwest (NW) Greenland (1952–2012) using instrumental (coastal meteorological station) and proxy records (snow pits and ice cores) to characterize the precipitation gradient from the coast to the ice sheet interior. Snow-pit-derived precipitation near the coast (1950–2000) has increased (~7% decade−1, p < 0.01) whereas there is no significant change observed in interior snow pits. This trend holds for 1981–2012, where calculated precipitation changes decrease in magnitude with increasing distance from the coast: 13% decade−1 (2.4 mm water equivalent (w.e.) decade−2) at coastal Thule air base (AB), 8.6% decade−1 (4.7 …
Coastal Ice-Core Record Of Recent Northwest Greenland Temperature And Sea-Ice Concentration, Erich C. Osterberg, Robert L. Hawley, Gifford Wong, Ben Kopec, David Ferris, Jennifer Howley
Coastal Ice-Core Record Of Recent Northwest Greenland Temperature And Sea-Ice Concentration, Erich C. Osterberg, Robert L. Hawley, Gifford Wong, Ben Kopec, David Ferris, Jennifer Howley
Dartmouth Scholarship
Coastal ice cores provide an opportunity to investigate regional climate and sea-ice variability in the past to complement hemispheric-scale climate reconstructions from ice-sheet-interior ice cores. Here we describe robust proxies of Baffin Bay temperature and sea-ice concentration from the coastal 2Barrel ice core collected in the Thule region of northwest Greenland. Over the 1990–2010 record, 2Barrel annually averaged methanesulfonic acid (MSA) concentrations are significantly correlated with May–June Baffin Bay sea-ice concentrations and summer temperatures. Higher MSA is observed during warmer years with less sea ice, indicative of enhanced primary productivity in Baffin Bay. Similarly, 2Barrel annually averaged deuterium excess (d-excess) …
The Price Of Snow: Albedo Valuation And A Case Study For Forest Management, David A. Lutz, Richard B. Howarth
The Price Of Snow: Albedo Valuation And A Case Study For Forest Management, David A. Lutz, Richard B. Howarth
Dartmouth Scholarship
Several climate frameworks have included the role of carbon storage in natural landscapes as a potential mechanism for climate change mitigation. This has resulted in an incentive to grow and maintain intact long-lived forest ecosystems. However, recent research has suggested that the influence of albedo-related radiative forcing can impart equal and in some cases greater magnitudes of climate mitigation compared to carbon storage in forests where snowfall is common and biomass is slow-growing. While several methodologies exist for relating albedo-associated radiative forcing to carbon storage for the analysis of the tradeoffs of these ecosystem services, they are varied, and they …
Unintended Outcomes Of Farmers' Adaptation To Climate Variability: Deforestation And Conservation In Calakmul And Maya Biosphere Reserves, Claudia Rodriguez-Solorzano
Unintended Outcomes Of Farmers' Adaptation To Climate Variability: Deforestation And Conservation In Calakmul And Maya Biosphere Reserves, Claudia Rodriguez-Solorzano
Dartmouth Scholarship
Minimizing the impact of climate change on farmer livelihoods is crucial, but adaptation efforts may have unintended consequences for ecosystems, with potential impacts on farmers’ welfare. Unintended outcomes of climate adaptation strategies have been widely discussed, however, empirical exploration has been neglected. Grounded in scholarship on climate adaptation, environmental governance, social–ecological systems, and land-use change, this paper studies whether farmers’ climate adaptation contributes to deforestation or forest conservation. The paper draws on interviews with 353 farmers from 46 communities in Calakmul Biosphere Reserve in Mexico and Maya Biosphere Reserve in Guatemala. Farmers in the area of study have implemented adaptation …
Stable Isotope And Modelling Evidence For Co2 As A Driver Of Glacial-Interglacial Vegetation Shifts In Southern Africa, F. J. Bragg, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, G. Eglinton, P. N. Foster
Stable Isotope And Modelling Evidence For Co2 As A Driver Of Glacial-Interglacial Vegetation Shifts In Southern Africa, F. J. Bragg, I. C. Prentice, S. P. Harrison, G. Eglinton, P. N. Foster
Dartmouth Scholarship
Atmospheric CO2 concentration is hypothesized to influence vegetation distribution via tree-grass competition, with higher CO2 concentrations favouring trees. The stable carbon isotope (delta C-13) signature of vegetation is influenced by the relative importance of C-4 plants (including most tropical grasses) and C-3 plants (including nearly all trees), and the degree of stomatal closure - a response to aridity in C-3 plants. Compound-specific delta C-13 analyses of leaf-wax biomarkers in sediment cores of an offshore South Atlantic transect are used here as a record of vegetation changes in subequatorial Africa. These data suggest a large increase in C3 relative to C4 …
Variability Of Black Carbon Deposition To The East Antarctic Plateau, 1800-2000 Ad, M. M. Bisiaux, R. Edwards, J. R. Mcconnell, M. R. Albert
Variability Of Black Carbon Deposition To The East Antarctic Plateau, 1800-2000 Ad, M. M. Bisiaux, R. Edwards, J. R. Mcconnell, M. R. Albert
Dartmouth Scholarship
Refractory black carbon aerosols (rBC) from biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion are deposited to the Antarctic ice sheet and preserve a history of emissions and long-range transport from low- and mid-latitudes. Antarctic ice core rBC records may thus provide information with respect to past combustion aerosol emissions and atmospheric circulation. Here, we present six East Antarctic ice core records of rBC concentrations and fluxes covering the last two centuries with approximately annual resolution (cal. yr. 1800 to 2000). The ice cores were drilled in disparate regions of the high East Antarctic ice sheet, at different elevations and net snow …
Ice Layers As An Indicator Of Summer Warmth And Atmospheric Blocking In Alaska, Eric P. Kelsey, Cameron P. Wake, Karl Kreutz, Erich Osterberg
Ice Layers As An Indicator Of Summer Warmth And Atmospheric Blocking In Alaska, Eric P. Kelsey, Cameron P. Wake, Karl Kreutz, Erich Osterberg
Dartmouth Scholarship
No abstract provided.
Impact Of Minimum Winter Temperatures On The Population Dynamics Of Dendroctonus Frontalis, J. KhảI TrầN, Tiina Ylioja, Ronald F. Billings, Jacques Régnière, Matthew P. Ayres
Impact Of Minimum Winter Temperatures On The Population Dynamics Of Dendroctonus Frontalis, J. KhảI TrầN, Tiina Ylioja, Ronald F. Billings, Jacques Régnière, Matthew P. Ayres
Dartmouth Scholarship
Predicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis (the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, …