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SMU Data Science Review

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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Investigation Into A Practical Application Of Reinforcement Learning For The Stock Market, Philip Traxler, Sadik Aman, Will Rogers, Allyn Okun Dec 2023

Investigation Into A Practical Application Of Reinforcement Learning For The Stock Market, Philip Traxler, Sadik Aman, Will Rogers, Allyn Okun

SMU Data Science Review

A major problem of the financial industry is the ability to adapt their trading strategies at the same rate the market evolves. This paper proposes a solution using existing Reinforcement Learning libraries to help find new strategies at a practical scale. Using a wide domain of ticker symbols, an algorithm is trained in an environment that better represents reality. The supplied decision-making algorithm is tested using recorded data from the U.S stock market from 2000 through 2022. The results of this research show that existing techniques are statistically better than making decisions at random. With this result, this research shows …

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Bridging The Chasm Between Fundamental, Momentum, And Quantitative Investing, Allen Hoskins, Jeff Reed, Robert Slater Apr 2023

Bridging The Chasm Between Fundamental, Momentum, And Quantitative Investing, Allen Hoskins, Jeff Reed, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

A chasm exists between the active public equity investment management industry's fundamental, momentum, and quantitative styles. In this study, the researchers explore ways to bridge this gap by leveraging domain knowledge, fundamental analysis, momentum, crowdsourcing, and data science methods. This research also seeks to test the developed tools and strategies during the volatile time period of 2020 and 2021.

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Following The Crowd: Beginners Investors Guide To The Options Market, Jeremy Dawkins, Alexy Morris, Jacob Gipson, Masoud Valizadeh Apr 2023

Following The Crowd: Beginners Investors Guide To The Options Market, Jeremy Dawkins, Alexy Morris, Jacob Gipson, Masoud Valizadeh

SMU Data Science Review

While the options market may be intimidating for a beginner, having the right tools can help improve the outcome of their investments. This project aims to develop a tool that uses time-series analysis and forecasting to model the future demand of S&P 500 and AAPL options contracts. The open interest of these contracts will be analyzed using various models such as AR, ARIMA, Neural Networks, and VAR, along with the put-call ratio. The goal is not to make buy or sell recommendations, but alert the user when money is flowing into a security or index. Of all the models, the …

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Fraud Pattern Detection For Nft Markets, Andrew Leppla, Jorge Olmos, Jaideep Lamba Mar 2023

Fraud Pattern Detection For Nft Markets, Andrew Leppla, Jorge Olmos, Jaideep Lamba

SMU Data Science Review

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) enable ownership and transfer of digital assets using blockchain technology. As a relatively new financial asset class, NFTs lack robust oversight and regulations. These conditions create an environment that is susceptible to fraudulent activity and market manipulation schemes. This study examines the buyer-seller network transactional data from some of the most popular NFT marketplaces (e.g., AtomicHub, OpenSea) to identify and predict fraudulent activity. To accomplish this goal multiple features such as price, volume, and network metrics were extracted from NFT transactional data. These were fed into a Multiple-Scale Convolutional Neural Network that predicts suspected fraudulent activity based …

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Self-Learning Algorithms For Intrusion Detection And Prevention Systems (Idps), Juan E. Nunez, Roger W. Tchegui Donfack, Rohit Rohit, Hayley Horn Mar 2023

Self-Learning Algorithms For Intrusion Detection And Prevention Systems (Idps), Juan E. Nunez, Roger W. Tchegui Donfack, Rohit Rohit, Hayley Horn

SMU Data Science Review

Today, there is an increased risk to data privacy and information security due to cyberattacks that compromise data reliability and accessibility. New machine learning models are needed to detect and prevent these cyberattacks. One application of these models is cybersecurity threat detection and prevention systems that can create a baseline of a network's traffic patterns to detect anomalies without needing pre-labeled data; thus, enabling the identification of abnormal network events as threats. This research explored algorithms that can help automate anomaly detection on an enterprise network using Canadian Institute for Cybersecurity data. This study demonstrates that Neural Networks with Bayesian …

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A Machine Learning Approach To Revenue Generation Within The Professional Hair Care Industry, Alexander K. Sepenu, Linda Eliasen Jun 2022

A Machine Learning Approach To Revenue Generation Within The Professional Hair Care Industry, Alexander K. Sepenu, Linda Eliasen

SMU Data Science Review

The cosmetic and beauty industry continues to grow and evolve to satisfy its patrons. In the United States, the industry is heavily science-driven, innovative, and fast-paced, suggesting that to remain productive and profitable, companies must seek smart alternatives to their current modus operandi or risk losing out on this multi-billion-dollar industry to fierce competition. In this paper, the authors seek to utilize machine learning models such as clustering and regression to improve the efficiency of current sales and customer segmentation models to help HairCo (pseudonym for confidentiality), a professional hair products manufacturer, strategize their marketing and sales efforts for revenue …

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Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis Of Movie Reviews, Samuel Onalaja, Eric Romero, Bosang Yun Dec 2021

Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis Of Movie Reviews, Samuel Onalaja, Eric Romero, Bosang Yun

SMU Data Science Review

This study investigates a comparison of classification models used to determine aspect based separated text sentiment and predict binary sentiments of movie reviews with genre and aspect specific driving factors. To gain a broader classification analysis, five machine and deep learning algorithms were compared: Logistic Regression (LR), Naive Bayes (NB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Recurrent Neural Network Long-Short-Term Memory (RNN LSTM). The various movie aspects that are utilized to separate the sentences are determined through aggregating aspect words from lexicon-base, supervised and unsupervised learning. The driving factors are randomly assigned to various movie aspects and their impact tied to …

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Automated Analysis Of Rfps Using Natural Language Processing (Nlp) For The Technology Domain, Sterling Beason, William Hinton, Yousri A. Salamah, Jordan Salsman May 2021

Automated Analysis Of Rfps Using Natural Language Processing (Nlp) For The Technology Domain, Sterling Beason, William Hinton, Yousri A. Salamah, Jordan Salsman

SMU Data Science Review

Much progress has been made in text analysis, specifically within the statistical domain of Term Frequency (TF) and Inverse Document Frequency (IDF). However, there is much room for improvement especially within the area of discovering Emerging Trends. Emerging Trend Detection Systems (ETDS) depend on ingesting a collection of textual data and TF/IDF to identify new or up-trending topics within the Corpus. However, the tremendous rate of change and the amount of digital information presents a challenge that makes it almost impossible for a human expert to spot emerging trends without relying on an automated ETD system. Since the U.S. Government …

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Analysis Of The Commercial Real Estate Market In A Post Covid-19 World, Brandon Croom, Sean Kennedy, Sandesh Ojha, Justin Sparks Jan 2021

Analysis Of The Commercial Real Estate Market In A Post Covid-19 World, Brandon Croom, Sean Kennedy, Sandesh Ojha, Justin Sparks

SMU Data Science Review

The volatility in the commercial real estate market has been greatly influenced by the new societal practices brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has added additional factors to already complex modeling to value and predict commercial real estate prices. Although multiple methodologies have been applied to commercial real estate valuation, these methods have not yet taken the COVID-19 pandemic factor into account. The main contribution of this article lies in developing an application for commercial real estate valuation which includes the COVID-19 pandemic factor. Thought this article a Hedonic model was developed to compare the impacts of …

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Predicting Attrition - A Driver For Creating Value, Realizing Strategy, And Refining Key Hr Processes, Kevin Mendonsa, Maureen Stolberg, Vivek Viswanathan, Scott Crum Aug 2020

Predicting Attrition - A Driver For Creating Value, Realizing Strategy, And Refining Key Hr Processes, Kevin Mendonsa, Maureen Stolberg, Vivek Viswanathan, Scott Crum

SMU Data Science Review

Talent is the most important asset for every organization's success. While attrition (or churn) and turnover can refer to both employees and customers, this paper will focus on employee attrition only. Many organizations accept attrition as an inevitable cost of doing business and do nothing to adopt or implement mitigating strategies to combat it. World class companies on the other hand take deliberate measures to understand, control and mitigate attrition (turnover) at every stage. Unmitigated attrition can have a devastating effect on an organization's bottom line and market value. In addition, the “invisible" costs of low employee morale, reduced employee …

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Demand Forecasting In Wholesale Alcohol Distribution: An Ensemble Approach, Tanvi Arora, Rajat Chandna, Stacy Conant, Bivin Sadler, Robert Slater Apr 2020

Demand Forecasting In Wholesale Alcohol Distribution: An Ensemble Approach, Tanvi Arora, Rajat Chandna, Stacy Conant, Bivin Sadler, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, historical data from a wholesale alcoholic beverage distributor was used to forecast sales demand. Demand forecasting is a vital part of the sale and distribution of many goods. Accurate forecasting can be used to optimize inventory, improve cash ow, and enhance customer service. However, demand forecasting is a challenging task due to the many unknowns that can impact sales, such as the weather and the state of the economy. While many studies focus effort on modeling consumer demand and endpoint retail sales, this study focused on demand forecasting from the distributor perspective. An ensemble approach was applied …

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Demand Forecasting For Alcoholic Beverage Distribution, Lei Jiang, Kristen M. Rollins, Meredith Ludlow, Bivin Sadler Apr 2020

Demand Forecasting For Alcoholic Beverage Distribution, Lei Jiang, Kristen M. Rollins, Meredith Ludlow, Bivin Sadler

SMU Data Science Review

Forecasting demand is one of the biggest challenges in any business, and the ability to make such predictions is an invaluable resource to a company. While difficult, predicting demand for products should be increasingly accessible due to the volume of data collected in businesses and the continuing advancements of machine learning models. This paper presents forecasting models for two vodka products for an alcoholic beverage distributing company located in the United States with the purpose of improving the company’s ability to forecast demand for those products. The results contain exploratory data analysis to determine the most important variables impacting demand, …

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Quantitative Model For Setting Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price, Peter Byrd, Jonathan Knowles, Dmitry Andreev, Jacob Turner, Brian Mente, Laroux Wallace Jan 2020

Quantitative Model For Setting Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price, Peter Byrd, Jonathan Knowles, Dmitry Andreev, Jacob Turner, Brian Mente, Laroux Wallace

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we present a quantitative approach to model the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) for children’s doll- houses and establish relationships among key features that contribute most to establishing MSRP. Determination of the MSRP is a critical step in how consumers respond with their wallets when purchasing an item. KidKraft, a global leader in toys and juvenile products, sets MSRP subjectively using product experts. The process is arduous and time consuming requiring the focus of specialized resources and knowledge of the interaction between key attributes and their impact on consumer value. An accurate prediction of MSRP during the …

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Demand Forecasting: An Open-Source Approach, Murtada Shubbar, Jared Smith May 2019

Demand Forecasting: An Open-Source Approach, Murtada Shubbar, Jared Smith

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we compare demand forecasting methods used by the supply chain department at Bilports to open-source forecasting methods. The design and implementation of the open-source forecasting system also attempts to use several external datasets such as consumer sentiment, housing permit starts, and weather to improve prediction quality. Additionally, the performance of the forecast is evaluated by the reduction of shipment lead times from China, the company’s primary vendor. The objective of our paper is to improve Bilports’s forecasting capabilities. The primary motivation of this paper is to increase forecasting accuracy and identify the weaknesses of the methods used …

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Leveraging Reviews To Improve User Experience, Anthony Schams, Iram Bakhtiar, Cristina Stanley May 2019

Leveraging Reviews To Improve User Experience, Anthony Schams, Iram Bakhtiar, Cristina Stanley

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we will explore and present a method of finding characteristics of a restaurant using its reviews through machine learning algorithms. We begin by building models to predict the ratings of individual reviews using text and categorical features. This is to examine the efficacy of the algorithms to the task. Both XGBoost and logistic regression will be examined. With these models, our goal is then to identify key phrases in reviews that are correlated with positive and negative experience. Our analysis makes use of review data publicly made available by Yelp. Key bigrams extracted were non-specific to the …

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Improving Vix Futures Forecasts Using Machine Learning Methods, James Hosker, Slobodan Djurdjevic, Hieu Nguyen, Robert Slater Jan 2019

Improving Vix Futures Forecasts Using Machine Learning Methods, James Hosker, Slobodan Djurdjevic, Hieu Nguyen, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

The problem of forecasting market volatility is a difficult task for most fund managers. Volatility forecasts are used for risk management, alpha (risk) trading, and the reduction of trading friction. Improving the forecasts of future market volatility assists fund managers in adding or reducing risk in their portfolios as well as in increasing hedges to protect their portfolios in anticipation of a market sell-off event. Our analysis compares three existing financial models that forecast future market volatility using the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) to six machine/deep learning supervised regression methods. This analysis determines which models provide best …

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Yelp’S Review Filtering Algorithm, Yao Yao, Ivelin Angelov, Jack Rasmus-Vorrath, Mooyoung Lee, Daniel W. Engels Aug 2018

Yelp’S Review Filtering Algorithm, Yao Yao, Ivelin Angelov, Jack Rasmus-Vorrath, Mooyoung Lee, Daniel W. Engels

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we present an analysis of features influencing Yelp's proprietary review filtering algorithm. Classifying or misclassifying reviews as recommended or non-recommended affects average ratings, consumer decisions, and ultimately, business revenue. Our analysis involves systematically sampling and scraping Yelp restaurant reviews. Features are extracted from review metadata and engineered from metrics and scores generated using text classifiers and sentiment analysis. The coefficients of a multivariate logistic regression model were interpreted as quantifications of the relative importance of features in classifying reviews as recommended or non-recommended. The model classified review recommendations with an accuracy of 78%. We found that reviews …

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Cryptovisor: A Cryptocurrency Advisor Tool, Matthew Baldree, Paul Widhalm, Brandon Hill, Matteo Ortisi Jul 2018

Cryptovisor: A Cryptocurrency Advisor Tool, Matthew Baldree, Paul Widhalm, Brandon Hill, Matteo Ortisi

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we present a tool that provides trading recommendations for cryptocurrency using a stochastic gradient boost classifier trained from a model labeled by technical indicators. The cryptocurrency market is volatile due to its infancy and limited size making it difficult for investors to know when to enter, exit, or stay in the market. Therefore, a tool is needed to provide investment recommendations for investors. We developed such a tool to support one cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, based on its historical price and volume data to recommend a trading decision for today or past days. This tool is 95.50% accurate with …

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Comparative Study: Reducing Cost To Manage Accessibility With Existing Data, Claire Chu, Bill Kerneckel, Eric C. Larson, Nathan Mowat, Christopher Woodard Apr 2018

Comparative Study: Reducing Cost To Manage Accessibility With Existing Data, Claire Chu, Bill Kerneckel, Eric C. Larson, Nathan Mowat, Christopher Woodard

SMU Data Science Review

“Project Sidewalk” is an existing research effort that focuses on mapping accessibility issues for handicapped persons to efficiently plan wheelchair and mobile scooter friendly routes around Washington D.C. As supporters of this project, we utilized the data “Project Sidewalk” collected and used it to confirm predictions about where problem sidewalks exist based on real estate and crime data. We present a study that identifies correlations found between accessibility data and crime and housing statistics in the Washington D.C. metropolitan area. We identify the key reasons for increased accessibility and the issues with the current infrastructure management system. After a thorough …

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