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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
It Takes Two To Tango : Understanding The Processes That Lead To Simultaneous Changes In Tropical Cyclone Intensity And Size And Communicating The Associated Hazards To Emergency Managers, Emily A. Paltz
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
The severity of tropical cyclone (TC) hazards is modulated by both TC intensity and size. More intense TCs produce stronger storm surges and increase wind damage. Larger TCs potentially impact more people, increase the duration of TC hazards, produce stronger storm surges and increase the amount of rainfall and flooding. Thus, accurately forecasting both TC intensity and size and effectively communicating those forecasts are critical to properly preparing communities for TC impacts. Forecast accuracy can be improved by enhancing our understanding about the processes that cause changes in TC intensity and size. This research divides the Extended Best Track dataset …
Impact Of Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Anomalies And Vertical Wind Shear On Tropical Cyclone Evolution Using An Idealized Version Of The Operational Gfdl Hurricane Model, Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph R. Sirutis, Biju Thomas, Isaac Ginis
Impact Of Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Anomalies And Vertical Wind Shear On Tropical Cyclone Evolution Using An Idealized Version Of The Operational Gfdl Hurricane Model, Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph R. Sirutis, Biju Thomas, Isaac Ginis
CCPO Publications
The GFDL hurricane modeling system, initiated in the 1970s, has progressed from a research tool to an operational system over four decades. This system is still in use today in research and operations, and its evolution will be briefly described. This study used an idealized version of the 2014 GFDL model to test its sensitivity across a wide range of three environmental factors that are often identified as key factors in tropical cyclone (TC) evolution: SST, atmospheric stability (upper-air thermal anomalies), and vertical wind shear (westerly through easterly). A wide range of minimum central pressure intensities resulted (905-980 hPa). The …
Hurricanes And Climate The U.S. Clivar Working Group On Hurricanes, Kevin J.E. Walsh, Suzana J. Camargo, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Anne Sophie Daloz, James Elsner, Kerry Emanuel, Michael Horn, Young-Kwon Lim, Malcom Roberts, Christina Patricola, Enrico Scoccimarro, Adam H. Sobel, Sarah Strazzo, Gabrielle Villarini, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao, James P. Kossin, Tim Larow, Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Sigfried Schubert, Hui Wang, Julio Bacmeister, Ping Chang, Fabrice Chauvin, Christiane Jablonowski, Arun Kumar, Hiroyuki Murakami, Tomoaki Ose, Kevin A. Reed, Ramalingam Saravanan, Yohei Yamada, Colin M. Zarzycki, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jefferey A. Jonas, Naomi Henderson
Hurricanes And Climate The U.S. Clivar Working Group On Hurricanes, Kevin J.E. Walsh, Suzana J. Camargo, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Anne Sophie Daloz, James Elsner, Kerry Emanuel, Michael Horn, Young-Kwon Lim, Malcom Roberts, Christina Patricola, Enrico Scoccimarro, Adam H. Sobel, Sarah Strazzo, Gabrielle Villarini, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao, James P. Kossin, Tim Larow, Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Sigfried Schubert, Hui Wang, Julio Bacmeister, Ping Chang, Fabrice Chauvin, Christiane Jablonowski, Arun Kumar, Hiroyuki Murakami, Tomoaki Ose, Kevin A. Reed, Ramalingam Saravanan, Yohei Yamada, Colin M. Zarzycki, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jefferey A. Jonas, Naomi Henderson
Publications
While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from …
Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel
Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel
Publications
Synthetic hurricane track data generated from a downscaling approach are compared to best-track (observed) data to analyze differences in regional frequency, intensity, and sensitivity of limiting intensity to sea surface temperature (SST). Overall, the spatial distributions of observed and simulated hurricane counts match well, although there are relatively fewer synthetic storms in the eastern quarter of the basin. Additionally, regions of intense synthetic hurricanes tend to coincide with regions of intense observed hurricanes. The sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST computed from synthetic data is slightly lower than sensitivity computed from observed data (5.561.31 m s21 (standard error, SE) …
A Statistical Model To Forecast Short-Term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity, Kevin Law, Jay Hobgood
A Statistical Model To Forecast Short-Term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity, Kevin Law, Jay Hobgood
Kevin Law
An alternative 24-h statistical hurricane intensity model is presented and verified for 13 hurricanes during the 2004–05 seasons. The model uses a new method involving a discriminant function analysis (DFA) to select from a collection of multiple regression equations. These equations were developed to predict the future 24-h wind speed increase and the 24-h pressure drop that were constructed from a dataset of 103 hurricanes from 1988 to 2003 that utilized 25 predictors of rapid intensification. The accuracy of the 24-h wind speed increase models was tested and compared with the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) 24-h intensity forecasts, which …
A Statistical Model To Forecast Short-Term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity, Kevin Law, Jay S. Hobgood
A Statistical Model To Forecast Short-Term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity, Kevin Law, Jay S. Hobgood
Geography Faculty Research
An alternative 24-h statistical hurricane intensity model is presented and verified for 13 hurricanes during the 2004–05 seasons. The model uses a new method involving a discriminant function analysis (DFA) to select from a collection of multiple regression equations. These equations were developed to predict the future 24-h wind speed increase and the 24-h pressure drop that were constructed from a dataset of 103 hurricanes from 1988 to 2003 that utilized 25 predictors of rapid intensification. The accuracy of the 24-h wind speed increase models was tested and compared with the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) 24-h intensity forecasts, which …