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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

A Statistical Model To Forecast Short-Term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity, Kevin Law, Jay S. Hobgood Oct 2007

A Statistical Model To Forecast Short-Term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity, Kevin Law, Jay S. Hobgood

Geography Faculty Research

An alternative 24-h statistical hurricane intensity model is presented and verified for 13 hurricanes during the 2004–05 seasons. The model uses a new method involving a discriminant function analysis (DFA) to select from a collection of multiple regression equations. These equations were developed to predict the future 24-h wind speed increase and the 24-h pressure drop that were constructed from a dataset of 103 hurricanes from 1988 to 2003 that utilized 25 predictors of rapid intensification. The accuracy of the 24-h wind speed increase models was tested and compared with the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) 24-h intensity forecasts, which …


A Global Mhd Simulation Of An Event With A Quasi-Steady Northward Imf Component, V G. Merkin, J G. Lyon, B J. Anderson, H Korth, C C. Goodrich, K Papadopoulos Jun 2007

A Global Mhd Simulation Of An Event With A Quasi-Steady Northward Imf Component, V G. Merkin, J G. Lyon, B J. Anderson, H Korth, C C. Goodrich, K Papadopoulos

Dartmouth Scholarship

We show results of the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global MHD simulations of an event previously ex- amined using Iridium spacecraft observations as well as DMSP and IMAGE FUV data. The event is chosen for the steady northward IMF sustained over a three-hour pe- riod during 16 July 2000. The Iridium observations showed very weak or absent Region 2 currents in the ionosphere, which makes the event favorable for global MHD model- ing. Here we are interested in examining the model’s per- formace during weak magnetospheric forcing, in particular, its ability to reproduce gross signatures of the ionospheric currents and convection pattern …