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Articles 1 - 12 of 12
Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A Protocol To Build Trust With Black Box Models, Timothy K. Thielke
A Protocol To Build Trust With Black Box Models, Timothy K. Thielke
Theses and Dissertations
Data scientists are more widely using artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) algorithms today despite the general mistrust associated with them due to the lack of contextual understanding of the domain occurring within the algorithm. Of the many types of ML algorithms, those that use non-linear activation functions are especially regarded with suspicion because of the lack of transparency and intuitive understanding of what is occurring within the black box of the algorithm. In this thesis, we set out to create a protocol to delve into the black box of an ML algorithm set to predict synoptic severe weather patterns …
Defining Viable Solar Resource Locations In The Southeast United States Using The Satellite-Based Glass Product, Jolie Kavanagh
Defining Viable Solar Resource Locations In The Southeast United States Using The Satellite-Based Glass Product, Jolie Kavanagh
Theses and Dissertations
This research uses satellite data and the moment statistics to determine if solar farms can be placed in the Southeast US. From 2001-2019, the data are analyzed in reference to the Southwest US, where solar farms are located. The clean energy need is becoming more common; therefore, more locations than arid environments must be observed. The Southeast US is the main location of interest due to the warm, moist environment throughout the year. This research uses the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) photosynthetically active radiation product (PAR) to determine viable locations for solar panels. A probability density function (PDF) along …
An Investigation Of Geostationary Satellite Imagery To Compare Developing And Non-Developing African Easterly Waves, Jenna Bartlett
An Investigation Of Geostationary Satellite Imagery To Compare Developing And Non-Developing African Easterly Waves, Jenna Bartlett
Theses and Dissertations
African easterly waves (AEWs) are known precursors to tropical cyclone (TC) formation, although it is not always clear which AEWs will develop and which AEWs will not. To investigate AEW evolution, this study examines novel observations from the geostationary Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) during July-September 2019. Case studies are conducted for two AEWs: one that became Hurricane Dorian, the strongest and most devastating hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, and a long-lived September AEW that did not become a TC. Lower-level moisture and flow, and the strength and spatial distribution of convective activity, differed between these two waves. By …
Development And Use Of An Agent-Based Model To Assess The Effect Of Forecast Credibility On Urban Traffic During Snow Events, Lillie Farrell
Development And Use Of An Agent-Based Model To Assess The Effect Of Forecast Credibility On Urban Traffic During Snow Events, Lillie Farrell
Theses and Dissertations
With the difficulties in snow accumulation prediction, the potential for false alarms and forecast misses arise. These forecast errors can lead to a lack of public trust and poor decisions in responding to future weather hazards. There has been little research on how individuals respond in the future to false alarms and forecast inconsistencies. We developed an agent-based traffic model to demonstrate how snow forecasts and public response interplay. This model factors receptiveness to expertise, forecast severity, and forecast credibility into the agents’ work-related travel decisions. Agents are grouped into three categories: firm workers, service workers, and household workers, where …
Interactions Between Tropical Cyclones And The Midlatitude Waveguide: Downstream Impacts And The Role Of Convective Processes, Kevin Prince
Interactions Between Tropical Cyclones And The Midlatitude Waveguide: Downstream Impacts And The Role Of Convective Processes, Kevin Prince
Theses and Dissertations
Significant amplification to the waveguide can occur when a recurving tropical cyclone (TC) interacts with the midlatitude flow, leading to significant downstream impacts. To this point in time, TC-midlatitude waveguide interactions have been conceptualized as primarily being driven by large-scale processes, with convective-scale contributions having been parameterized or neglected. This three-part study diagnoses the impact TC-midlatitude waveguide interactions have on the intensity evolution of downstream TCs and the role convective-scale processes play in TC-midlatitude waveguide interactions. Recurving TCs in both the North Atlantic and western North Pacific basins frequently interact favorably with upstream troughs, where a favorable interaction entails the …
An Investigation Of Sea-Breeze Driven Convection Along The Northern Gulf Coast, Caitlin Ford
An Investigation Of Sea-Breeze Driven Convection Along The Northern Gulf Coast, Caitlin Ford
Theses and Dissertations
Although sea-breezes frequently initiate convection, it is oftentimes challenging to forecast the precise location of storm development. This research examines temporal and spatial characteristics of sea-breeze driven convection and environmental conditions that support convective or non-convective sea-breeze days along the Northern Gulf Coast. Base reflectivity products were used to identify the initial time of convection (values greater than 30 dBZs) along the sea-breeze front. It was found that convective sea-breezes initiated earlier in the day compared to non-convective sea-breezes. Mapping convective cells in ArcGIS revealed favored locations of thunderstorm development including the southeastern cusp of Mobile County, Alabama and convex …
Impact Of Climate Oscillations/Indices On Hydrological Variables In The Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer., Meena Raju
Theses and Dissertations
The Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer (MRVAA) is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the United States. The main objectives of this research are to identify long term trends and change points in hydrological variables (streamflow and rainfall), to assess the relationship between hydrological variables, and to evaluate the influence of global climate indices on hydrological variables. Non-parametric tests, MMK and Pettitt’s tests were used to analyze trend and change points. PCC and Streamflow elasticity analysis were used to analyze the relationship between streamflow and rainfall and the sensitivity of streamflow to rainfall changes. PCC and MLR analysis …
Do State Fairs With Firework Displays Impact Pm2.5 Levels In Nearby Communities?, Victoria Lang
Do State Fairs With Firework Displays Impact Pm2.5 Levels In Nearby Communities?, Victoria Lang
Theses and Dissertations
This study identified state fairs with known firework displays to evaluate whether they impact local air quality. Previous research has shown firework displays are linked with the short-term degradation of local air quality due to increased concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) as a result of the display. These studies observed increased PM2.5 concentrations associated with widespread firework displays such as the Lantern Festival in China, Diwali Festival in India, and Independence Day in the United States. However, it has not been investigated whether a signal of increased PM2.5 concentrations from firework displays during a state fair could be observed …
An Agent-Based Exploration Of The Hurricane Forecast-Evacuation System Dynamics, Austin Reed Harris
An Agent-Based Exploration Of The Hurricane Forecast-Evacuation System Dynamics, Austin Reed Harris
Theses and Dissertations
In the mainland US, the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system is uncertain, dynamic, and complex. As a result, it is difficult to know whether to issue warnings, implement evacuation management strategies, or how to make forecasts more useful for evacuations. This dissertation helps address these needs, by holistically exploring the system’s complex dynamics from a new perspective. Specifically, by developing – and using – an empirically informed, agent-based modeling framework called FLEE (Forecasting Laboratory for Exploring the Evacuation-system). The framework represents the key, interwoven elements to hurricane evacuations: the natural hazard (hurricane), the human system (information flow, evacuation decisions), the built environment (road …
Feasibility Of Fireball Trail Detection Using Ground-Based Gps Receivers, Ian R. Moffett
Feasibility Of Fireball Trail Detection Using Ground-Based Gps Receivers, Ian R. Moffett
Theses and Dissertations
The feasibility of using GPS data to detect fireballs is analyzed by first modeling the fireball’s trail diffusion and plasma chemistry to get a resulting ion density profile of the trail over time. The signal perturbation caused by the fireball trail is simulated for a ground receiver using an analytic solution for diffraction from a Gaussian lens. Five cases were modeled with varying initial peak ion densities and altitudes taken from fireball and reentry vehicle data. This paper shows that it is feasible to detect a fireball trail using GPS if the fireball has a sufficiently high initial ion density, …
Global Sporadic-E Climatological Analysis Using Gps Radio Occultation And Ionosonde Data, Travis J. Hodos
Global Sporadic-E Climatological Analysis Using Gps Radio Occultation And Ionosonde Data, Travis J. Hodos
Theses and Dissertations
A climatology of sporadic-E (Es) derived from a combined data set of GPS radio occultation (GPS-RO) and ground-based ionosonde soundings is presented for the period from September 2006 to February 2019. The ionosonde soundings were measured using the Lowell Digisonde International (LDI) Global Ionosphere Radio Observatory (GIRO) network consisting of 65 sites and 13,141,060 total soundings. The GPS-RO observations were taken aboard the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellites and processed using two binary Es detection algorithms, totaling 9,072,922 occultations. The first algorithm is an S4 amplitude threshold calibrated to the occurrence of any blanketing Es …
Intercomparison Of Four Microphysics Schemes In Simulating Persistent Arctic Mixed-Phase Stratocumulus Clouds, Zachary A. Cleveland
Intercomparison Of Four Microphysics Schemes In Simulating Persistent Arctic Mixed-Phase Stratocumulus Clouds, Zachary A. Cleveland
Theses and Dissertations
Persistent Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds (AMPS) are important to the surface radiation budget of the Arctic. Their presence produces warming within the boundary layer and at the surface and inaccurately forecasting AMPS can lead to large, erroneous temperature forecasts. A Large Eddy Simulation of a case study of a persistent AMPS cloud was conducted using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The case examined occurred near Oliktok Point, AK between 26 and 27 April, 2017. The produced cloud pattern and properties of four different microphysics schemes -- P3, Thompson, Morrison, and WSM6 -- are compared to observations. …