Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

An Investigation Of The Conditional Practical Predictability Of The 31 May 2013 Heavy-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective System, Aidan Kuroski

Theses and Dissertations

On 31 May 2013, strong thunderstorms initiated in west-central Oklahoma with one of the storms eventually creating a very strong tornado near El Reno, OK. The storms then grew upscale into a quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system that produced prolonged heavy rainfall that led to severe flooding across parts of Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. A 50-member ensemble of short range (0-24 h) forecasts was conducting using a set of initial conditions generated via cycled data assimilation to quantify event predictability and identify forecast sensitivities, primarily with CI and initial upscale growth. Both a composite and ensemble sensitivity analysis …