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Articles 1 - 9 of 9
Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Probabilistic Forecasting Of Winter Mixed Precipitation Types In New York State Utilizing A Random Forest, Brian Chandler Filipiak
Probabilistic Forecasting Of Winter Mixed Precipitation Types In New York State Utilizing A Random Forest, Brian Chandler Filipiak
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Operational forecasters face a plethora of challenges when making a forecast; they must consider multiple data sources ranging from radar and satellites to surface and upper air observations, to numerical weather prediction output. Forecasts must be done in a limited window of time, which adds an additional layer of difficulty to the task. These challenges are exacerbated by winter mixed precipitation events where slight differences in thermodynamic profiles or changes in terrain create different precipitation types across small areas. In addition to being difficult to forecast, mixed precipitation events can have large-scale impacts on our society.
Changes In Large-Scale Extreme Precipitation In Over Taiwan And The Northeast United States : Past And Future, Lexi Henny
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Large-scale extreme precipitation over (1) the mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States and (2) Taiwan is attributed to weather types such as atmospheric river (AR), TC, and extreme integrated vapor transport (IVT). Statistically significant increases in season-total EP day precipitation are seen at many GHCN stations in winter, summer, and fall in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast region, and at certain high-elevation grid points in Taiwan Mei-yu season. During the cold season of winter and spring, the U.S.-based changes come from AR-associated EP days and are associated with strengthened southwesterly winds and IVT either within EP days, in the season mean, or …
Predictability Issues Associated With Near-Freezing Precipitation Type In Complex Terrain, Matthew Seymour
Predictability Issues Associated With Near-Freezing Precipitation Type In Complex Terrain, Matthew Seymour
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Predictability challenges are heightened in winter weather forecasting when the environment for high-impact weather is marginal or varies over short distances. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP), such as the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), and ensemble forecast systems, such as the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), are useful for constraining forecasts. However, their use can be challenging in marginal, near-freezing, situations when precipitation type is uncertain. Uncertainties in planetary boundary layer (PBL) and microphysics (MP) parameterizations and subtle synoptic-scale model errors brought on by differences in initial and lateral boundary conditions (IC/BCs) complicate the p-type forecast. Further, complex terrain, such as …
Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Interaction : Sensitivity Of Weather Forecast Models To Complex Land Surface Conditions In New York State, Lanxi Min
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
The land-atmosphere coupling system is important for the simulation of key quantities like surface temperature, precipitation, and radiative energy. Over the complex terrain of New York State, the land-atmosphere coupling process is quite complex and misrepresenting the coupling processes could lead to strong biases. Evaluating the weather forecasting models is vital for enhancing understanding of physical and processes and further improving the model forecasting. A comprehensive observation network, the New York State Mesonet (NYSM) provides a great opportunity to investigate how the land atmosphere coupling process are simulated over complex terrain region. This research includes three components. In first part, …
Aerosol And Terrain Effects On Winter Cloud And Precipitation Over New York State, Yuyi Du
Aerosol And Terrain Effects On Winter Cloud And Precipitation Over New York State, Yuyi Du
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Prediction of regional weather and climate regarding precipitation for a region such as the Northeast US with its complex terrain and aerosol environment constitutes a major challenge. Furthermore, complex thermodynamic structures occur in and around New York State (NYS) owing to its complex topography paired with its coastal regions, ultimately affecting cloud and precipitation microphysics. The microphysical processes within the weather systems that produce orographic precipitation are not fully understood. These processes include, but are not limited to, liquid-ice interactions, ice growth through vapor deposition, riming, and aggregation, cloud-aerosol interactions, and melting and refreezing upon sedimentation to the surface. These …
Process-Based Evaluation Of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies On Ensemble Forecasts Of Heavy Rainfall Events, Kevin Michael Lupo
Process-Based Evaluation Of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies On Ensemble Forecasts Of Heavy Rainfall Events, Kevin Michael Lupo
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Stochastic model error schemes, such as the stochastic perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT) and independent SPPT (iSPPT) schemes, have become an increasingly utilized method to represent model error associated with uncertain subgrid-scale processes in ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). While much of the current literature focuses on how stochastic methods influence ensemble skill, relatively less attention is given to the processes by which these schemes lead to forecast variability. In this vein, this dissertation examines the physical processes by which the application of SPPT and iSPPT to the microphysics, planetary boundary layer (PBL), and radiation parameterization schemes yields rainfall forecast variability. These …
The Sensitivity Of The December 2014 New York Mixed Precipitation Event To Initial Condition And Microphysics Uncertainty, Meghan Conway
The Sensitivity Of The December 2014 New York Mixed Precipitation Event To Initial Condition And Microphysics Uncertainty, Meghan Conway
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
The prediction of wintertime precipitation type and amount can be a challenging undertaking, partly due to uncertainties in meteorological parameters such as temperature (horizontal and vertical), moisture, and wind. During Dec. 9-10, 2014, a mixed precipitation event occurred in the upper Hudson River Valley. This storm produced an unexpected heavy mesoscale snowband during rush hour in the Capitol region, after winter weather advisories had been cancelled.
Ensemble Variability In Rainfall Forecasts Of Hurricane Irene (2011), Molly Becker Smith
Ensemble Variability In Rainfall Forecasts Of Hurricane Irene (2011), Molly Becker Smith
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
As tropical cyclones (TCs) move into the midlatitudes, they are often associated with extensive heavy precipitation. This precipitation can lead to widespread flooding events, such as occurred with Hurricane Irene (2011) over the northeastern United States. Despite the high-impact nature of these events, there are relatively few studies that explore the sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to model initial conditions, beyond focusing on the variability in forecast TC track.
Rossby Wave Breaking And Widespread Extreme Precipitation Events In The Central And Eastern U.S, Benjamin John Moore
Rossby Wave Breaking And Widespread Extreme Precipitation Events In The Central And Eastern U.S, Benjamin John Moore
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
This dissertation examines climatological and dynamical linkages between widespread extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the central and eastern U.S. and Rossby wave breaking (RWB), and assesses forecast skill for EPEs occurring in conjunction with RWB. The analysis primarily focuses on linkages of EPEs to LC1 (anticyclonic) and LC2 (cyclonic) RWB.