Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Complexity Heliophysics: A [New] System Science That Transcends The Previous Boundaries Of Our Field, Ryan M. Mcgranaghan, Seebany Datta-Barua, Jeffrey Thayer, Joe Borovsky, Jay R. Johnson, Simon Wing, Dan Baker, Massimo Materassi

Faculty Publications

Synopsis

1. The 21st century is the time of complexity. We delineate it and its importance as necessary to solve ‘wicked problems.’

2. Inherently transdisciplinary, trans-scale, and interconnected to living systems, the solution to Heliophysics’ identity crisis and to unlock the next generation of scientific discovery may be to embrace complexity.

3. With the right foresight, direction, and incentive over the next ten years, Heliophysics can become a beacon for how all of society thinks about and does complexity science.

Probabilistic Short Term Solar Driver Forecasting With Neural Network Ensembles, Joshua Daniell

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

Commonly utilized space weather indices and proxies drive predictive models for thermosphere density, directly impacting objects in low-Earth orbit (LEO) by influencing atmospheric drag forces. A set of solar proxies and indices (drivers), F_10.7, S_10.7, M_10.7, and Y_10.7, are created from a mixture of ground based radio observations and satellite instrument data. These solar drivers represent heating in various levels of the thermosphere and are used as inputs by the JB2008 empirical thermosphere density model. The United States Air Force (USAF) operational High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) relies on JB2008, and …