Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Probabilistic Short Term Solar Driver Forecasting With Neural Network Ensembles, Joshua Daniell

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

Commonly utilized space weather indices and proxies drive predictive models for thermosphere density, directly impacting objects in low-Earth orbit (LEO) by influencing atmospheric drag forces. A set of solar proxies and indices (drivers), F_10.7, S_10.7, M_10.7, and Y_10.7, are created from a mixture of ground based radio observations and satellite instrument data. These solar drivers represent heating in various levels of the thermosphere and are used as inputs by the JB2008 empirical thermosphere density model. The United States Air Force (USAF) operational High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) relies on JB2008, and …