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Parameter Estimation And Uncertainty Quantication For An Epidemic Model, Alex Calpaldi, Samuel Behrend, Benjamin Berman, Jason Smith, Justin Wright, Alun Lloyd
Parameter Estimation And Uncertainty Quantication For An Epidemic Model, Alex Calpaldi, Samuel Behrend, Benjamin Berman, Jason Smith, Justin Wright, Alun Lloyd
Alex Capaldi
We examine estimation of the parameters of Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) models in the context of least squares. We review the use of asymptotic statistical theory and sensitivity analysis to obtain measures of uncertainty for estimates of the model parameters and the basic reproductive number (R0 )—an epidemiologically significant parameter grouping. We find that estimates of different parameters, such as the transmission parameter and recovery rate, are correlated, with the magnitude and sign of this correlation depending on the value of R0. Situations are highlighted in which this correlation allows R0 to be estimated with greater ease than its constituent parameters. Implications …
Parameter Estimation And Uncertainty Quantication For An Epidemic Model, Alex Capaldi, Samuel Behrend, Benjamin Berman, Jason Smith, Justin Wright, Alun L. Lloyd
Parameter Estimation And Uncertainty Quantication For An Epidemic Model, Alex Capaldi, Samuel Behrend, Benjamin Berman, Jason Smith, Justin Wright, Alun L. Lloyd
Alex Capaldi
We examine estimation of the parameters of Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) models in the context of least squares. We review the use of asymptotic statistical theory and sensitivity analysis to obtain measures of uncertainty for estimates of the model parameters and the basic reproductive number (R0 )—an epidemiologically significant parameter grouping. We find that estimates of different parameters, such as the transmission parameter and recovery rate, are correlated, with the magnitude and sign of this correlation depending on the value of R0. Situations are highlighted in which this correlation allows R0 to be estimated with greater ease than its constituent parameters. Implications …