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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Cross-Validation For Autoregressive Models., Christina Han
Cross-Validation For Autoregressive Models., Christina Han
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
There are no set rules for choosing the lag order for autoregressive (AR) time series models. Currently, the most common methods employ AIC or BIC. However, AIC has been proven to be inconsistent and BIC is inefficient. Racine proposed an estimator based on Shao's work which he hypothesized would also be consistent, but left the proof as an open problem. We will show his claim does not follow immediately from Shao. However, Shao offered another consistent method for cross validation of linear models called APCV, and we will show that AR models satisfy Shao's conditions. Thus, APCV is a consistent …
Estimating The Statistics Of Operational Loss Through The Analyzation Of A Time Series, Maurice L. Brown
Estimating The Statistics Of Operational Loss Through The Analyzation Of A Time Series, Maurice L. Brown
Theses and Dissertations
In the world of finance, appropriately understanding risk is key to success or failure because it is a fundamental driver for institutional behavior. Here we focus on risk as it relates to the operations of financial institutions, namely operational risk. Quantifying operational risk begins with data in the form of a time series of realized losses, which can occur for a number of reasons, can vary over different time intervals, and can pose a challenge that is exacerbated by having to account for both frequency and severity of losses. We introduce a stochastic point process model for the frequency distribution …
Dynamic Nonlinear Gaussian Model For Inferring A Graph Structure On Time Series, Abhinuv Uppal
Dynamic Nonlinear Gaussian Model For Inferring A Graph Structure On Time Series, Abhinuv Uppal
CMC Senior Theses
In many applications of graph analytics, the optimal graph construction is not always straightforward. I propose a novel algorithm to dynamically infer a graph structure on multiple time series by first imposing a state evolution equation on the graph and deriving the necessary equations to convert it into a maximum likelihood optimization problem. The state evolution equation guarantees that edge weights contain predictive power by construction. After running experiments on simulated data, it appears the required optimization is likely non-convex and does not generally produce results significantly better than randomly tweaking parameters, so it is not feasible to use in …