Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Correlation Does Not Imply Correlation: A Thesis On Causal Influence And Simpson’S Paradox, Emily Naitoh

Scripps Senior Theses

In our data-driven world, it has become commonplace to attempt to find
causal relationships. One of the themes of this thesis is to show methods of
determining causation. The second theme follows a saying in mathematics,
"correlation does not imply causation". We will also discuss situations where
correlation does not even imply correlation itself. These cases are described
by Simpson’s paradox in an exploration of different areas of mathematics
and computer coding.

Smoothed Bounded-Confidence Opinion Dynamics On The Complete Graph, Solomon Valore-Caplan

HMC Senior Theses

We present and analyze a model for how opinions might spread throughout a network of people sharing information. Our model is called the smoothed bounded-confidence model and is inspired by the bounded-confidence model of opinion dynamics proposed by Hegselmann and Krause. In the Hegselmann–Krause model, agents move towards the average opinion of their neighbors. However, an agent only factors a neighbor into the average if their opinions are sufficiently similar. In our model, we replace this binary threshold with a logarithmic weighting function that rewards neighbors with similar opinions and minimizes the effect of dissimilar ones. This weighting function can …

An Adaptive Hegselmann–Krause Model Of Opinion Dynamics, Phousawanh Peaungvongpakdy

HMC Senior Theses

Models of opinion dynamics have been used to understand how the spread
of information in a population evolves, such as the classical Hegselmann–
Krause model (Hegselmann and Krause, 2002). One extension of the model
has been used to study the impact of media ideology on social media
networks (Brooks and Porter, 2020). In this thesis, we explore various
models of opinions and propose our own model, which is an adaptive
version of the Hegselmann–Krause model. The adaptive version implements
the social phenomenon of homophily—the tendency for like-minded agents to
associate together. This is done by having agents dissolve connections …

Check Yourself Before You Wrek Yourself: Unpacking And Generalizing Randomized Extended Kaczmarz, William Gilroy

HMC Senior Theses

Linear systems are fundamental in many areas of science and engineering. With the advent of computers there now exist extremely large linear systems that we are interested in. Such linear systems lend themselves to iterative methods. One such method is the family of algorithms called Randomized Kaczmarz methods.
Among this family, there exists a Randomized Kaczmarz variant called Randomized
Extended Kaczmarz which solves for least squares solutions in inconsistent linear systems.
Among Kaczmarz variants, Randomized Extended Kaczmarz is unique in that it modifies input system in a special way to solve for the least squares solution. In this work we …

An Exploration Of Voting With Partial Orders, Mason Acevedo

HMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, we discuss existing ideas and voting systems in social choice theory. Specifically, we focus on the Kemeny rule and the Borda count. Then, we begin trying to understand generalizations of these voting systems in a setting where voters can submit partial rankings on their ballot, instead of complete rankings.

An Exponential Formula For Random Variables Generated By Multiple Brownian Motions, Maximilian Lawrence Baroi

CGU Theses & Dissertations

The frozen operator has been used to develop Dyson-series like representations for random variables generated by classical Brownian motion, Lévy processes and fractional Brownian with Hurst index greater than 1/2.The relationship between the conditional expectation of a random variable (or fractional conditional expectation in the case of fractional Brownian motion)and that variable's Dyson-series like representation is the exponential formula. These results had not yet been extended to either fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index less than 1/2, or d-dimensional Brownian motion. The former is still out of reach, but we hope our review of stochastic integration for fractional Brownian motion …

Examining Bias Against Women In Professional Settings Through Bifurcation Theory, Lauren Cashdan

CMC Senior Theses

When it comes to women in professional hierarchies, it is important to recognize the lack of representation at the higher levels. By modeling these situations we hope to draw attention to the issues currently plaguing professional atmospheres. In a paper by Clifton et. al. (2019), they model the fraction of women at any level in a professional hierarchy using the parameters of hiring gender bias and internal homophily on behalf of the applicant. This thesis will focus on a key theory in Clifton et. al.’s analysis and explain its role in the model, specifically bifrucation analysis. In order to analyze …

Analyzing Marriage Statistics As Recorded In The Journal Of The American Statistical Association From 1889 To 2012, Annalee Soohoo

CMC Senior Theses

The United States has been tracking American marriage statistics since its founding. According to the United States Census Bureau, “marital status and marital history data help federal agencies understand marriage trends, forecast future needs of programs that have spousal benefits, and measure the effects of policies and programs that focus on the well-being of families, including tax policies and financial assistance programs.”[1] With such a wide scope of applications, it is understandable why marriage statistics are so highly studied and well-documented.

This thesis will analyze American marriage patterns over the past 100 years as documented in the Journal of …

Containing Compounding Container Congestion, Curtis Salinger

CMC Senior Theses

The Covid-19 pandemic caused major disruptions throughout the container shipping supply chain. Professor Dongping Song of Liverpool University wrote a paper discussing the logistical vulnerabilities in the supply chain, including the issue of congestion in ports. This paper examines the Port of Los Angeles from 2018-2021 as it relates to Song’s paper to see how its operations were impacted during the Covid-19 timeframe. It is found that labor shortages, chassis shortages, and change in trade behavior each contributed to the congestion. Unfortunately, the implemented policies were insufficient to bolster the port against sustained challenges and congestion continues to worsen.

Dynamic Nonlinear Gaussian Model For Inferring A Graph Structure On Time Series, Abhinuv Uppal

CMC Senior Theses

In many applications of graph analytics, the optimal graph construction is not always straightforward. I propose a novel algorithm to dynamically infer a graph structure on multiple time series by first imposing a state evolution equation on the graph and deriving the necessary equations to convert it into a maximum likelihood optimization problem. The state evolution equation guarantees that edge weights contain predictive power by construction. After running experiments on simulated data, it appears the required optimization is likely non-convex and does not generally produce results significantly better than randomly tweaking parameters, so it is not feasible to use in …