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University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations
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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Expert Elicitation On The Uncertainties Associated With Chronic Wasting Disease, Michael G. Tyshenko, Tamer Oraby, Shalu Darshan, Margit Westphal, Maxine C. Croteau, Willy Aspinall, Susie Elsaadany, Daniel Krewski, Neil Cashman
Expert Elicitation On The Uncertainties Associated With Chronic Wasting Disease, Michael G. Tyshenko, Tamer Oraby, Shalu Darshan, Margit Westphal, Maxine C. Croteau, Willy Aspinall, Susie Elsaadany, Daniel Krewski, Neil Cashman
School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations
A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission …