Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Covid-19 Collaborative Modelling For Policy Response In The Philippines, Malaysia And Vietnam, Angus Hughes, Romain Ragonnet, Pavithra Jayasundara, Hoang-Anh Ngo, Elvira P. De Lara-Tuprio, Ma. Regina Justina Estuar, Timothy Robin Y. Teng, Law Kian Boon, Kalaiarasu M. Peariasamy, Zhuo-Lin Chong, Izzuna Mudla M. Ghazali, Greg J. Fox, Thu-Anh Nguyen, Linh-Vi Le, Milinda Abayawardana B. Eng, David Shipman, Emma S. Mcbryde, Michael T. Meehan, Jamie M. Caldwell, James M. Trauer

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Mathematical models that capture COVID-19 dynamics have supported public health responses and policy development since the beginning of the pandemic, yet there is limited discourse to describe features of an optimal modelling platform to support policy decisions or how modellers and policy makers have engaged with each other. Here, we outline how we used a modelling software platform to support public health decision making for the COVID-19 response in the Western Pacific Region (WPR) countries of the Philippines, Malaysia and Viet Nam. This perspective describes an approach to support evidence-based public health decisions and policy, which may help inform other …

Understanding Covid-19 Dynamics And The Effects Of Interventions In The Philippines: A Mathematical Modelling Study, Jamie M. Caldwell, Elvira P. De Lara-Tuprio, Timothy Robin Y. Teng, Ma. Regina Justina E. Estuar, Raymond Francis R. Sarmiento, Milinda Abayawardana B. Eng, Robert Neil F. Leong, Richard T. Gray, James G. Wood, Linh-Vi Le, Emma S. Mcbryde, Romain Ragonnet, James M. Trauer

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Background

COVID-19 initially caused less severe outbreaks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with many high-income countries; possibly because of differing demographics; socioeconomics; surveillance; and policy responses. Here; we investigate the role of multiple factors on COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines; a LMIC that has had a relatively severe COVID-19 outbreak.

Methods

We applied an age-structured compartmental model that incorporated time-varying mobility; testing; and personal protective behaviors (through a “Minimum Health Standards” policy; MHS) to represent the first wave of the Philippines COVID-19 epidemic nationally and for three highly affected regions (Calabarzon; Central Visayas; and the National Capital …