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Observation And Model Error Effects On Parameter Estimates In Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Epidemiological Models, Tom L. Burr, Gerardo Chowell

Public Health Faculty Publications

Recently, confidence intervals (CIs) associated with parameter estimates in the susceptibleinfected-recovered epidemiological model have been developed. When model assumptions are met and the observation error is relatively small, these CIs are relatively short. This work describes the behavior of CIs for parameters as observation and/or equation or model error becomes larger, and includes a comparison of two estimation procedures. One procedure demonstrates significant bias as observation error increases; the other procedure demonstrates significant bias as model error increases.