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Full-Text Articles in Medicine and Health Sciences
Start Of Epidemy In A City: Short-Term Forecast Of Covid-19 With Gmdh-Based Algorithms And Official Medical Statistics, Anna Boldyreva, Mikhail Alexandrov, Olexiy Koshulko, Svetland Popova
Start Of Epidemy In A City: Short-Term Forecast Of Covid-19 With Gmdh-Based Algorithms And Official Medical Statistics, Anna Boldyreva, Mikhail Alexandrov, Olexiy Koshulko, Svetland Popova
Conference papers
The sudden onset and quick development of an unknown epidemic may lead to tragic consequences: panic of population due to victims and unpreparedness of authorities for effectively help to population. These circumstances define extremely high requirements to the tools for short-term operational forecast. Namely, such tools should provide reliable results when model of phenomenon is unknown (factors of disease spreading) and data are limited (time series of observations). GMDH-based algorithms just meet these requirements unlike modern differential or advanced statistical models. In this study we test different algorithms from GMDH Shell platform on the example of Covid-19 epidemic in Moscow …