Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Covid-19 And Quantitative Literacy: Focusing On Probability, Michael A. Lewis

Numeracy

The COVID-19 pandemic is arguably the worst crisis the world has faced, so far, in this new century. We haven’t seen a pandemic like this since the 1918 Flu at the beginning of the last century, and, as of this writing, there appears to be no end in sight. What those of us who’re focused on quantitative methods have noticed, in addition to the many people dying, becoming ill, and losing their livelihoods, is the importance of quantitative literacy to an understanding of what’s going on. That’s what this article is about. Specifically, it’s about how the COVID-19 pandemic is …

From R0 To The Herd: A Review Of The Rules Of Contagion, By Adam Kucharski, Nathan D. Grawe

Numeracy

Adam Kucharski. 2020. The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread--and Why They Stop; (London: Profile Books, Ltd.). Hardback ISBN 978-17-88-16019-3. E-book ISBN 978-17-82-83430-4.

Kucharski's well-timed Rules of Contagion provides an introduction to the mathematical and epidemiological principles behind contagious phenomenon. While the author's primary expertise stems from work on biological epidemics, the book points to examples from a wide range of fields including finance, psychology, computer science, and criminology. As such, selections of the book could be used by faculty in a wide range of classes to show how our recent experience with a viral epidemic might add to …

Factors In The Probability Of Covid-19 Transmission In University Classrooms, Charles Connor

Numeracy

University students and faculty members need an effective strategy to evaluate and reduce the probability that an individual will become infected with COVID-19 as a result of classroom interactions. Models are developed here that consider the probability an individual will become infected as a function of: prevalence of the disease in the university community, number of students in class, number of class meetings, and transmission rate in the classroom given the presence of an infected individual. Absolute probabilities that an individual will become infected in a classroom environment cannot be calculated because some of these factors have unknown values. Nevertheless, …

The Covid-19 Pandemic And The Power Of Numbers, Jessica Ancker

Numeracy

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced a deluge of news coverage of quantitative concepts. In this viewpoint, we provide examples of effective and poor quantitative communication by the professional news media as well as social media communicators. Effective examples include a number of online animations and engaging interactive simulations. Examples of poor quantitative communication include the widespread reporting of raw numbers rather than rates, failing to address uncertainty, not providing sufficient context for numbers, and not discussing the implications of false negative and false positive diagnostic test results. Educators can draw from this body of news to develop compelling quantitative literacy …