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Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston Nov 2017

Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston

Lora Billings

The goal of this paper is to motivate the need and lay the foundation for the analysis of stochastic epidemiological models with seasonal forcing.We consider stochastic SIS and SIR epidemic models, where the internal noise is due to the random interactions of individuals in the population. We provide an overview of the general theoretic framework that allows one to understand noise-induced rare events, such as spontaneous disease extinction. Although there are many paths to extinction, there is one path termed the optimal path that is probabilistically most likely to occur. By extending the theory, we have identified the quasi-stationary solutions …


Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston Nov 2017

Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston

Eric Forgoston

The goal of this paper is to motivate the need and lay the foundation for the analysis of stochastic epidemiological models with seasonal forcing.We consider stochastic SIS and SIR epidemic models, where the internal noise is due to the random interactions of individuals in the population. We provide an overview of the general theoretic framework that allows one to understand noise-induced rare events, such as spontaneous disease extinction. Although there are many paths to extinction, there is one path termed the optimal path that is probabilistically most likely to occur. By extending the theory, we have identified the quasi-stationary solutions …


Pain And Pharmacologic Pain Management In Long-Stay Nursing Home Residents, Jacob N. Hunnicutt, Christine M. Ulbricht, Jennifer Tjia, Kate L. Lapane May 2017

Pain And Pharmacologic Pain Management In Long-Stay Nursing Home Residents, Jacob N. Hunnicutt, Christine M. Ulbricht, Jennifer Tjia, Kate L. Lapane

Jennifer Tjia

Prior studies estimate that >40% of long-stay nursing home (NH) residents experience persistent pain, with 20% of residents in pain receiving no analgesics. Strengthened NH surveyor guidance and improved pain measures on the Minimum Data Set (MDS) 3.0 were introduced in March 2009 and October 2010, respectively. This study aimed to provide estimates after these important initiatives of: 1) prevalence and correlates of persistent pain; and 2) prevalence and correlates of untreated or undertreated persistent pain. We identified 1,387,405 long-stay residents in United States NHs between 2011-2012 with 2 MDS assessments 90 days apart. Pain was categorized as persistent (pain …


Decade-Long Trends In The Timeliness Of Receipt Of A Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, Han-Yang Chen, Joel M. Gore, Kate L. Lapane, Jorge L. Yarzebski, Sharina D. Person, Catarina I. Kiefe, Robert J. Goldberg Dec 2016

Decade-Long Trends In The Timeliness Of Receipt Of A Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, Han-Yang Chen, Joel M. Gore, Kate L. Lapane, Jorge L. Yarzebski, Sharina D. Person, Catarina I. Kiefe, Robert J. Goldberg

Catarina I. Kiefe

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine decade-long trends (2001-2011) in, and factors associated with, door-to-balloon time within 90 minutes of hospital presentation among patients hospitalized with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) who received a primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS: Residents of central Massachusetts hospitalized with STEMI who received a primary PCI at two major PCI-capable medical centers in central Massachusetts on a biennial basis between 2001 and 2011 comprised the study population (n=629). Multivariable regression analyses were used to examine factors associated with failing to receive a primary PCI within 90 minutes after emergency department (ED) …


Decade-Long Trends In The Timeliness Of Receipt Of A Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, Han-Yang Chen, Joel M. Gore, Kate L. Lapane, Jorge L. Yarzebski, Sharina D. Person, Catarina I. Kiefe, Robert J. Goldberg Dec 2016

Decade-Long Trends In The Timeliness Of Receipt Of A Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, Han-Yang Chen, Joel M. Gore, Kate L. Lapane, Jorge L. Yarzebski, Sharina D. Person, Catarina I. Kiefe, Robert J. Goldberg

Jorge L. Yarzebski

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine decade-long trends (2001-2011) in, and factors associated with, door-to-balloon time within 90 minutes of hospital presentation among patients hospitalized with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) who received a primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS: Residents of central Massachusetts hospitalized with STEMI who received a primary PCI at two major PCI-capable medical centers in central Massachusetts on a biennial basis between 2001 and 2011 comprised the study population (n=629). Multivariable regression analyses were used to examine factors associated with failing to receive a primary PCI within 90 minutes after emergency department (ED) …


Racial Differences In Trends And Predictors Of Infant Sleep Positioning In South Carolina, 1996-2007, Michael Smith, Jihong Liu, Kristen Helms, Kristin Wilkerson Oct 2014

Racial Differences In Trends And Predictors Of Infant Sleep Positioning In South Carolina, 1996-2007, Michael Smith, Jihong Liu, Kristen Helms, Kristin Wilkerson

Jihong Liu

No abstract provided.


Copd Surveillance-United States, 1999-2011, Earl S. Ford, Janet B. Croft, David M. Mannino, Anne G. Wheaton, Xingyou Zhang, Wayne H. Giles Jul 2013

Copd Surveillance-United States, 1999-2011, Earl S. Ford, Janet B. Croft, David M. Mannino, Anne G. Wheaton, Xingyou Zhang, Wayne H. Giles

David M. Mannino

This report updates surveillance results for COPD in the United States. For 1999 to 2011, data from national data systems for adults aged ≥ 25 years were analyzed. In 2011, 6.5% of adults (approximately 13.7 million) reported having been diagnosed with COPD. From 1999 to 2011, the overall age-adjusted prevalence of having been diagnosed with COPD declined (P = .019). In 2010, there were 10.3 million (494.8 per 10,000) physician office visits, 1.5 million (72.0 per 10,000) ED visits, and 699,000 (32.2 per 10,000) hospital discharges for COPD. From 1999 to 2010, no significant overall trends were noted for physician …


Estimating The Effect Of A Community-Based Intervention With Two Communities, Mark Van Der Laan, Maya Petersen, Wenjing Zheng May 2013

Estimating The Effect Of A Community-Based Intervention With Two Communities, Mark Van Der Laan, Maya Petersen, Wenjing Zheng

Wenjing Zheng

Due to the need to evaluate the effectiveness of community-based programs in practice, there is substantial interest in methods to estimate the causal effects of community-level treatments or exposures on individual level outcomes. The challenge one is confronted with is that different communities have different environmental factors affecting the individual outcomes, and all individuals in a community share the same environment and intervention. In practice, data are often available from only a small number of communities, making it difficult if not impossible to adjust for these environmental confounders. In this paper we consider an extreme version of this dilemma, in …


Oral And Injectable Contraception Use And Risk Of Hiv Acquisition Among Women In Sub-Saharan Africa, Sandra Mccoy, Wenjing Zheng, Elizabeth Montgomery, Kelly Blanchard, Ariane Van Der Straten, Guy De Bruyn, Nancy Padian Mar 2013

Oral And Injectable Contraception Use And Risk Of Hiv Acquisition Among Women In Sub-Saharan Africa, Sandra Mccoy, Wenjing Zheng, Elizabeth Montgomery, Kelly Blanchard, Ariane Van Der Straten, Guy De Bruyn, Nancy Padian

Wenjing Zheng

OBJECTIVE:: Evaluate the effect of oral and injectable hormonal contraception (HC) on the risk of HIV acquisition among women in South Africa and Zimbabwe. DESIGN:: Secondary data analysis of 4913 sexually active women aged 18-49 years followed for up to 24 months in the MIRA phase III effectiveness trial of the diaphragm and lubricant gel for HIV prevention. METHODS:: Participants were interviewed quarterly about contraception and sexual behavior and were tested for pregnancy, HIV, and other sexually transmitted infections. We used a Cox proportional hazards marginal structural model, weighted by the inverse probability of HC use, to compare the risk …


Interactions Between Serotypes Of Dengue Highlight Epidemiological Impact Of Cross-Immunity, Nicholas Reich, Sourya Shrestha, Aaron King, Pejman Rohani, Justin Lessler, Siripen Kalayanarooj, In-Kyu Yoon, Robert Gibbons, Donald Burke, Derek Cummings Jan 2013

Interactions Between Serotypes Of Dengue Highlight Epidemiological Impact Of Cross-Immunity, Nicholas Reich, Sourya Shrestha, Aaron King, Pejman Rohani, Justin Lessler, Siripen Kalayanarooj, In-Kyu Yoon, Robert Gibbons, Donald Burke, Derek Cummings

Nicholas G Reich

Dengue, a mosquito-borne virus of humans, infects over 50 million people annually. Infection with any of the four dengue serotypes induces protective immunity to that serotype, but does not confer long-term protection against infection by other serotypes. The immunological interactions between sero- types are of central importance in understanding epidemiological dynamics and anticipating the impact of dengue vaccines. We analysed a 38-year time series with 12 197 serotyped dengue infections from a hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. Using novel mechanistic models to represent different hypothesized immune interactions between serotypes, we found strong evidence that infec- tion with dengue provides substantial short-term …


Setting Up The Longitudinal Study For Adult Health (Elsa-Brasil), Paulo A. Lotufo Jan 2013

Setting Up The Longitudinal Study For Adult Health (Elsa-Brasil), Paulo A. Lotufo

Paulo A Lotufo

Baseline data collection of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study for Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) was complete by December 2010. A cohort of 15,105 subjects has been followed up on incident events at six study sites for three years. The ELSA-Brasil is remarkable for its large sample size and wide variety of data collected to investigate biological and social determinants of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus in adults in Brazil. A group of Brazilian experts in chronic noncommunicable disease research started planning this study project in 2004. It was launched at a meeting on August 20 to 21, 2004 held at the Universidade …


Exposé Of Misleading Claims That Male Circumcision Will Increase Hiv Infections In Africa, Brian J. Morris, Jake H. Waskett, Ronald H. Gray, Daniel T. Halperin, Richard Wamai, Bertran Auvert, Jeffrey D. Klausner Nov 2012

Exposé Of Misleading Claims That Male Circumcision Will Increase Hiv Infections In Africa, Brian J. Morris, Jake H. Waskett, Ronald H. Gray, Daniel T. Halperin, Richard Wamai, Bertran Auvert, Jeffrey D. Klausner

Richard G. Wamai

Despite over two decades of extensive research showing that male circumcision protects against heterosexual acquisition of HIV in men, and that includes findings from large randomized controlled trials leading to acceptance by the WHO/UNAIDS and the Cochrane Committee, opponents of circumcision continue to generate specious arguments to the contrary. In a recent issue of the Journal of Public Health in Africa, Van Howe and Storms claim that male circumcision will increase HIV infections in Africa. Here we review the statements they use in support of their thesis and show that there is no scientific basis to such an assertion. We …


Mortalidade Materna No Paraná: O Que Mostra A Produção Científica Nos Últimos 10 Anos? / Maternal Mortality In Paraná: Showing The Scientific Production In The Last 10 Years?, Everton Fernando Alves, Thais Abigail Vidoto Jun 2012

Mortalidade Materna No Paraná: O Que Mostra A Produção Científica Nos Últimos 10 Anos? / Maternal Mortality In Paraná: Showing The Scientific Production In The Last 10 Years?, Everton Fernando Alves, Thais Abigail Vidoto

Everton Fernando Alves

A mortalidade materna atrai inúmeras discussões e preocupações no Paraná visto que reflete a qualidade da assistência prestada nos serviços de saúde, bem como a operacionalização das políticas públicas voltadas à saúde da mulher. O objetivo deste trabalho foi conhecer o perfil epidemiológico da mortalidade materna no Estado do Paraná, por meio de revisão de estudos sobre o tema. Trata-se de uma revisão sistemática da literatura, realizada através da busca eletrônica de artigos científicos publicados entre 2000 e 2010, nas bases de dados LILACS e SciELO. Identificaram-se inicialmente 30 artigos. Após aplicação dos critérios de inclusão e exclusão restaram 09 …


Assessing And Quantifying High Risk: Comparing Risky Behaviors By Youth In An Urban, Disadvantaged Community With Nationally Representative Youth, Monica Swahn, Robert Bossarte May 2012

Assessing And Quantifying High Risk: Comparing Risky Behaviors By Youth In An Urban, Disadvantaged Community With Nationally Representative Youth, Monica Swahn, Robert Bossarte

Monica H. Swahn

No abstract provided.


Violent Attacks On Middle Easterners In The United States During The Month Following The September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attacks, Monica Swahn, R Mahendra, L Paulozzi, R Winston, G Shelley, J Taliano, L Frazier, J Saul May 2012

Violent Attacks On Middle Easterners In The United States During The Month Following The September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attacks, Monica Swahn, R Mahendra, L Paulozzi, R Winston, G Shelley, J Taliano, L Frazier, J Saul

Monica H. Swahn

Objectives: To document and describe hate related violent attacks on Middle Easterners or those perceived to be Middle Easterners during the month following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington, DC. Methods: The LexisNexis database of newspaper reports were used to identify incidents of hate related violent acts against Middle Easterners or those perceived to be Middle Easterners in the US between September 1 and October 11, 2001. A total of 100 incidents of hate related violence were identified in the 2659 news articles that were reviewed. Results: Of the 100 incidents of violent victimization …


The Associations Between Victimization, Feeling Unsafe, And Asthma Episodes Among Us High-School Students, Monica Swahn, Robert Bossarte May 2012

The Associations Between Victimization, Feeling Unsafe, And Asthma Episodes Among Us High-School Students, Monica Swahn, Robert Bossarte

Monica H. Swahn

We examined the associations between victimization, missed school because of feeling unsafe, and asthma episodes among US high-school students using the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey. Cross-sectional analyses on adolescents with asthma (n=1943) showed that any victimization and missed school because of feeling unsafe significantly increased the odds of having an asthma episode in the past year (adjusted odds ratio [OR]=1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07, 1.95 and adjusted OR = 2.93; 95% CI = 1.90, 4.53, respectively). Victimization and feeling unsafe are important but poorly understood risk factors for asthma.


Differences In Frequency Of Violence And Reported Injury Between Relationships With Reciprocal And Nonreciprocal Intimate Partner Violence, Daniel Whitaker, Tadesse Haileyesus, Monica Swahn, Linda Saltzman May 2012

Differences In Frequency Of Violence And Reported Injury Between Relationships With Reciprocal And Nonreciprocal Intimate Partner Violence, Daniel Whitaker, Tadesse Haileyesus, Monica Swahn, Linda Saltzman

Monica H. Swahn

Objectives: We sought to examine the prevalence of reciprocal (i.e., perpetrated by both partners) and nonreciprocal intimate partner violence and to determine whether reciprocity is related to violence frequency and injury. Methods: We analyzed data on young US adults aged 18 to 28 years from the 2001 National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, which contained information about partner violence and injury reported by 11 370 respondents on 18761 heterosexual relationships. Results: Almost 24% of all relationships had some violence, and half (49.7%) of those were reciprocally violent. In nonreciprocally violent relationships, women were the perpetrators in more than 70% of …


Fibrinogen, Copd And Mortality In A Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort, David M. Mannino, Deepa Valvi, Hana Mullerova, Ruth Tal-Singer Apr 2012

Fibrinogen, Copd And Mortality In A Nationally Representative U.S. Cohort, David M. Mannino, Deepa Valvi, Hana Mullerova, Ruth Tal-Singer

David M. Mannino

BACKGROUND:

Fibrinogen is a marker of systemic inflammation and may represent an important biomarker for the progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

METHODS:

We used baseline data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) and follow-up mortality data to determine the relation between fibrinogen levels and COPD and to examine how fibrinogen levels at baseline affected long-term outcomes. Elevated fibrinogen was defined as the upper 10% of the fibrinogen level distribution.

RESULTS:

Our study sample included 8,507 subjects, including 245 with Stage 3 or 4 COPD and 826 with Stage 2 COPD. Then, 3,290 of …


Fibrinogen, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (Copd) And Outcomes In Two United States Cohorts, Deepa Valvi, David M. Mannino, Hana Mullerova, Ruth Tal-Singer Mar 2012

Fibrinogen, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (Copd) And Outcomes In Two United States Cohorts, Deepa Valvi, David M. Mannino, Hana Mullerova, Ruth Tal-Singer

David M. Mannino

Background

Fibrinogen is a marker of systemic inflammation and may be important in the pathogenesis and progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Methods

We used baseline data from Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Cardiovascular Health Studies to determine the relation between fibrinogen levels and COPD and to examine how fibrinogen levels at baseline affected outcomes of death, development of COPD, lung function decline, and COPD-hospitalizations.

Results

Our study sample included 20,192 subjects, of whom 2995 died during the follow-up period. The mean fibrinogen level was 307.6 mg/dL and 10% of the sample had levels >393.0 mg/dL. Subjects with Stage …


Prevalence Of Colorectal Cancer Screening Among A Multimorbid Rural Appalachian Population, Steven T. Fleming, Nancy E. Schoenberg, Yelena N. Tarasenko, Kevin A. Pearce Dec 2011

Prevalence Of Colorectal Cancer Screening Among A Multimorbid Rural Appalachian Population, Steven T. Fleming, Nancy E. Schoenberg, Yelena N. Tarasenko, Kevin A. Pearce

Yelena N. Tarasenko

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to determine the relation among multiple morbidities and the prevalence of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening among older adult Appalachian residents of Kentucky. This is the first known study to address multiple morbidities exclusively with a health-disparities population.

Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of 1153 subjects, aged 50 to 76 years, from Appalachian Kentucky.

Results: White race, post-high school education, and perception of having more than enough income on which to survive were associated with higher rates of any guideline concordant CRC screening. Statistically significant trends in the outcome of …


Associations Of Daily Eating Episodes, And Eating Away-From-Home With Blood Level Of Total Cholesterol, Yunsheng Ma, Elizabeth R. Bertone-Johnson, Edward J. Stanek, Dr. Nancy L. Cohen, Ira S. Ockene Nov 2011

Associations Of Daily Eating Episodes, And Eating Away-From-Home With Blood Level Of Total Cholesterol, Yunsheng Ma, Elizabeth R. Bertone-Johnson, Edward J. Stanek, Dr. Nancy L. Cohen, Ira S. Ockene

Nancy L. Cohen

The objective of this investigation is to describe the associations of number of eating episodes and proportion of meals eaten away from home with total serum cholesterol. Data from 499 participants, recruited from a health maintenance organization in central Massachusetts, aged 20-70, were used for this analysis. Dietary information and total blood cholesterol were obtained at five sampling points (baseline and four consecutive quarters) during the one-year follow-up. A cross-sectional study was conducted. The results from the study do not support the hypothesis that the number of eating episodes per day is associated with total blood cholesterol. However, we noted …


Characteristics Of Chronic Pain Associated With Sleep Difficulty In Older Adults: The Maintenance Of Balance, Independent Living, Intellect, And Zest In The Elderly (Mobilize) Boston Study, Suzanne G. Leveille Phd, Qian Chen Bsn, Rn Jan 2011

Characteristics Of Chronic Pain Associated With Sleep Difficulty In Older Adults: The Maintenance Of Balance, Independent Living, Intellect, And Zest In The Elderly (Mobilize) Boston Study, Suzanne G. Leveille Phd, Qian Chen Bsn, Rn

Suzanne G. Leveille

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate pain severity and distribution

in relation to sleep difficulty in older adults.

DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional study.

SETTING: Community within a 5-mile radius of the study

center at the Institute for Aging Research, Hebrew Senior-

Life (HSL), Boston.

PARTICIPANTS: Seven hundred sixty-five participants of

the Maintenance of Balance, Independent Living, Intellect,

and Zest in the Elderly (MOBILIZE) Boston Study aged 64

and older.

MEASUREMENTS: Pain severity was measured using the

Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) Pain Severity Subscale. Musculoskeletal pain distribution was grouped according to no pain, single site, two or more sites, and widespread pain

(upper and lower …


Identification Of 2-Aminothiazole-4-Carboxylate Derivatives Active Against Mycobacterium Tuberculosis H37rv And The B-Ketoacyl-Acp Synthase Mtfabh, Philadelphia University Apr 2010

Identification Of 2-Aminothiazole-4-Carboxylate Derivatives Active Against Mycobacterium Tuberculosis H37rv And The B-Ketoacyl-Acp Synthase Mtfabh, Philadelphia University

Philadelphia University, Jordan

No abstract provided.


Preventing Copd: Evidence Of Progress, David M. Mannino Feb 2010

Preventing Copd: Evidence Of Progress, David M. Mannino

David M. Mannino

Comment on

Trends in hospitalization with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-United States, 1990-2005. [COPD. 2010]

Trends in mortality from COPD in selected U.S. States differing in tobacco control efforts. [COPD. 2010]


Environmental Valuation: The Sum Of Specific Damages Approach, Philip E. Graves Jan 2010

Environmental Valuation: The Sum Of Specific Damages Approach, Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

There is no abstract for this book chapter.


Risk Of Premature Stroke In Recent Immigrants (Presario): Population-Based Matched Cohort Study., Gustavo Saposnik Dec 2009

Risk Of Premature Stroke In Recent Immigrants (Presario): Population-Based Matched Cohort Study., Gustavo Saposnik

Gustavo Saposnik

No abstract provided.


Myocardial Infarction Associated With Recency Of Immigration To Ontario., Gustavo Saposnik Dec 2009

Myocardial Infarction Associated With Recency Of Immigration To Ontario., Gustavo Saposnik

Gustavo Saposnik

No abstract provided.


The Effect Of Sex On Asthma Control From The National Asthma Survey, James Temprano, David M. Mannino Apr 2009

The Effect Of Sex On Asthma Control From The National Asthma Survey, James Temprano, David M. Mannino

David M. Mannino

Background Previous studies have demonstrated conflicting results with regard to differences in asthma control between the sexes.

Objective We sought to identify sex differences in short-term and long-term measures of asthma control in adults from the National Asthma Survey.

Methods This study analyzed data from the National Asthma Survey (Four-State sample) sponsored by the National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Asthma control was compared between the sexes based on short-term (recent symptoms, asthma attacks, and albuterol use) and long-term (asthma attacks, work days lost, and urgent-care visits and hospitalizations in the prior year) measures. Composite …


Comparing Pain Severity Versus Pain Location In The Mobilize Boston Study: Chronic Pain And Lower Extremity Function, Suzanne G. Leveille, Laura H.P. Eggermont Jan 2009

Comparing Pain Severity Versus Pain Location In The Mobilize Boston Study: Chronic Pain And Lower Extremity Function, Suzanne G. Leveille, Laura H.P. Eggermont

Suzanne G. Leveille

Background. This study compared measures of chronic pain, for example, number of pain sites and overall pain

severity, in relation to lower extremity function in the older population.

Methods. Six hundred older adults (mean age 77.9 years, 64% female) were queried about presence of chronic pain.

Number of pain sites was categorized as none, single site, multisite, or widespread. Pain severity was measured in

quartiles of the Brief Pain Inventory pain severity subscale. Lower extremity function was assessed by the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), a composite measure of gait speed, balance, and chair stands.

Results. Many older persons reported …


Stroke In The Very Elderly: Hospital Care, Case Fatality And Disposition., Gustavo Saposnik Dec 2008

Stroke In The Very Elderly: Hospital Care, Case Fatality And Disposition., Gustavo Saposnik

Gustavo Saposnik

No abstract provided.