Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 2 of 2
Full-Text Articles in Medicine and Health Sciences
Statistical Analysis Methods Applied To Early Outpatient Covid-19 Treatment Case Series Data, Eleftherios Gkioulekas, Peter A. Mccullough, Vladimir Zelenko
Statistical Analysis Methods Applied To Early Outpatient Covid-19 Treatment Case Series Data, Eleftherios Gkioulekas, Peter A. Mccullough, Vladimir Zelenko
School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations
When confronted with a public health emergency, significant innovative treatment protocols can sometimes be discovered by medical doctors at the front lines based on repurposed medications. We propose a statistical framework for analyzing the case series of patients treated with such new protocols, that enables a comparison with our prior knowledge of expected outcomes, in the absence of treatment. The goal of the proposed methodology is not to provide a precise measurement of treatment efficacy, but to establish the existence of treatment efficacy, in order to facilitate the binary decision of whether the treatment protocol should be adopted on an …
Using A Stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain Model To Examine Alternative Timing And Duration Of The Covid-19 Lockdown In Kuwait: What Can Be Done Now?, Mustafa Al-Zoughool, Tamer Oraby, Harri Vainio, Janvier Gasana, Joseph C. Longenecker, Walid Al Ali, Mohammad Alseaidan, Susie Elsaadany, Michael G. Tyshenko
Using A Stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain Model To Examine Alternative Timing And Duration Of The Covid-19 Lockdown In Kuwait: What Can Be Done Now?, Mustafa Al-Zoughool, Tamer Oraby, Harri Vainio, Janvier Gasana, Joseph C. Longenecker, Walid Al Ali, Mohammad Alseaidan, Susie Elsaadany, Michael G. Tyshenko
School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations
Background
Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations.
Methods
The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and …