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Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston Nov 2017

Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston

Lora Billings

The goal of this paper is to motivate the need and lay the foundation for the analysis of stochastic epidemiological models with seasonal forcing.We consider stochastic SIS and SIR epidemic models, where the internal noise is due to the random interactions of individuals in the population. We provide an overview of the general theoretic framework that allows one to understand noise-induced rare events, such as spontaneous disease extinction. Although there are many paths to extinction, there is one path termed the optimal path that is probabilistically most likely to occur. By extending the theory, we have identified the quasi-stationary solutions …


Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston Nov 2017

Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston

Eric Forgoston

The goal of this paper is to motivate the need and lay the foundation for the analysis of stochastic epidemiological models with seasonal forcing.We consider stochastic SIS and SIR epidemic models, where the internal noise is due to the random interactions of individuals in the population. We provide an overview of the general theoretic framework that allows one to understand noise-induced rare events, such as spontaneous disease extinction. Although there are many paths to extinction, there is one path termed the optimal path that is probabilistically most likely to occur. By extending the theory, we have identified the quasi-stationary solutions …


Pain And Pharmacologic Pain Management In Long-Stay Nursing Home Residents, Jacob N. Hunnicutt, Christine M. Ulbricht, Jennifer Tjia, Kate L. Lapane May 2017

Pain And Pharmacologic Pain Management In Long-Stay Nursing Home Residents, Jacob N. Hunnicutt, Christine M. Ulbricht, Jennifer Tjia, Kate L. Lapane

Jennifer Tjia

Prior studies estimate that >40% of long-stay nursing home (NH) residents experience persistent pain, with 20% of residents in pain receiving no analgesics. Strengthened NH surveyor guidance and improved pain measures on the Minimum Data Set (MDS) 3.0 were introduced in March 2009 and October 2010, respectively. This study aimed to provide estimates after these important initiatives of: 1) prevalence and correlates of persistent pain; and 2) prevalence and correlates of untreated or undertreated persistent pain. We identified 1,387,405 long-stay residents in United States NHs between 2011-2012 with 2 MDS assessments 90 days apart. Pain was categorized as persistent (pain …


Decade-Long Trends In The Timeliness Of Receipt Of A Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, Han-Yang Chen, Joel M. Gore, Kate L. Lapane, Jorge L. Yarzebski, Sharina D. Person, Catarina I. Kiefe, Robert J. Goldberg Dec 2016

Decade-Long Trends In The Timeliness Of Receipt Of A Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, Han-Yang Chen, Joel M. Gore, Kate L. Lapane, Jorge L. Yarzebski, Sharina D. Person, Catarina I. Kiefe, Robert J. Goldberg

Catarina I. Kiefe

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine decade-long trends (2001-2011) in, and factors associated with, door-to-balloon time within 90 minutes of hospital presentation among patients hospitalized with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) who received a primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS: Residents of central Massachusetts hospitalized with STEMI who received a primary PCI at two major PCI-capable medical centers in central Massachusetts on a biennial basis between 2001 and 2011 comprised the study population (n=629). Multivariable regression analyses were used to examine factors associated with failing to receive a primary PCI within 90 minutes after emergency department (ED) …


Decade-Long Trends In The Timeliness Of Receipt Of A Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, Han-Yang Chen, Joel M. Gore, Kate L. Lapane, Jorge L. Yarzebski, Sharina D. Person, Catarina I. Kiefe, Robert J. Goldberg Dec 2016

Decade-Long Trends In The Timeliness Of Receipt Of A Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, Han-Yang Chen, Joel M. Gore, Kate L. Lapane, Jorge L. Yarzebski, Sharina D. Person, Catarina I. Kiefe, Robert J. Goldberg

Jorge L. Yarzebski

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine decade-long trends (2001-2011) in, and factors associated with, door-to-balloon time within 90 minutes of hospital presentation among patients hospitalized with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) who received a primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS: Residents of central Massachusetts hospitalized with STEMI who received a primary PCI at two major PCI-capable medical centers in central Massachusetts on a biennial basis between 2001 and 2011 comprised the study population (n=629). Multivariable regression analyses were used to examine factors associated with failing to receive a primary PCI within 90 minutes after emergency department (ED) …


Racial Differences In Trends And Predictors Of Infant Sleep Positioning In South Carolina, 1996-2007, Michael Smith, Jihong Liu, Kristen Helms, Kristin Wilkerson Oct 2014

Racial Differences In Trends And Predictors Of Infant Sleep Positioning In South Carolina, 1996-2007, Michael Smith, Jihong Liu, Kristen Helms, Kristin Wilkerson

Jihong Liu

No abstract provided.


Estimating The Effect Of A Community-Based Intervention With Two Communities, Mark Van Der Laan, Maya Petersen, Wenjing Zheng May 2013

Estimating The Effect Of A Community-Based Intervention With Two Communities, Mark Van Der Laan, Maya Petersen, Wenjing Zheng

Wenjing Zheng

Due to the need to evaluate the effectiveness of community-based programs in practice, there is substantial interest in methods to estimate the causal effects of community-level treatments or exposures on individual level outcomes. The challenge one is confronted with is that different communities have different environmental factors affecting the individual outcomes, and all individuals in a community share the same environment and intervention. In practice, data are often available from only a small number of communities, making it difficult if not impossible to adjust for these environmental confounders. In this paper we consider an extreme version of this dilemma, in …


Oral And Injectable Contraception Use And Risk Of Hiv Acquisition Among Women In Sub-Saharan Africa, Sandra Mccoy, Wenjing Zheng, Elizabeth Montgomery, Kelly Blanchard, Ariane Van Der Straten, Guy De Bruyn, Nancy Padian Mar 2013

Oral And Injectable Contraception Use And Risk Of Hiv Acquisition Among Women In Sub-Saharan Africa, Sandra Mccoy, Wenjing Zheng, Elizabeth Montgomery, Kelly Blanchard, Ariane Van Der Straten, Guy De Bruyn, Nancy Padian

Wenjing Zheng

OBJECTIVE:: Evaluate the effect of oral and injectable hormonal contraception (HC) on the risk of HIV acquisition among women in South Africa and Zimbabwe. DESIGN:: Secondary data analysis of 4913 sexually active women aged 18-49 years followed for up to 24 months in the MIRA phase III effectiveness trial of the diaphragm and lubricant gel for HIV prevention. METHODS:: Participants were interviewed quarterly about contraception and sexual behavior and were tested for pregnancy, HIV, and other sexually transmitted infections. We used a Cox proportional hazards marginal structural model, weighted by the inverse probability of HC use, to compare the risk …


Exposé Of Misleading Claims That Male Circumcision Will Increase Hiv Infections In Africa, Brian J. Morris, Jake H. Waskett, Ronald H. Gray, Daniel T. Halperin, Richard Wamai, Bertran Auvert, Jeffrey D. Klausner Nov 2012

Exposé Of Misleading Claims That Male Circumcision Will Increase Hiv Infections In Africa, Brian J. Morris, Jake H. Waskett, Ronald H. Gray, Daniel T. Halperin, Richard Wamai, Bertran Auvert, Jeffrey D. Klausner

Richard G. Wamai

Despite over two decades of extensive research showing that male circumcision protects against heterosexual acquisition of HIV in men, and that includes findings from large randomized controlled trials leading to acceptance by the WHO/UNAIDS and the Cochrane Committee, opponents of circumcision continue to generate specious arguments to the contrary. In a recent issue of the Journal of Public Health in Africa, Van Howe and Storms claim that male circumcision will increase HIV infections in Africa. Here we review the statements they use in support of their thesis and show that there is no scientific basis to such an assertion. We …


Mortalidade Materna No Paraná: O Que Mostra A Produção Científica Nos Últimos 10 Anos? / Maternal Mortality In Paraná: Showing The Scientific Production In The Last 10 Years?, Everton Fernando Alves, Thais Abigail Vidoto Jun 2012

Mortalidade Materna No Paraná: O Que Mostra A Produção Científica Nos Últimos 10 Anos? / Maternal Mortality In Paraná: Showing The Scientific Production In The Last 10 Years?, Everton Fernando Alves, Thais Abigail Vidoto

Everton Fernando Alves

A mortalidade materna atrai inúmeras discussões e preocupações no Paraná visto que reflete a qualidade da assistência prestada nos serviços de saúde, bem como a operacionalização das políticas públicas voltadas à saúde da mulher. O objetivo deste trabalho foi conhecer o perfil epidemiológico da mortalidade materna no Estado do Paraná, por meio de revisão de estudos sobre o tema. Trata-se de uma revisão sistemática da literatura, realizada através da busca eletrônica de artigos científicos publicados entre 2000 e 2010, nas bases de dados LILACS e SciELO. Identificaram-se inicialmente 30 artigos. Após aplicação dos critérios de inclusão e exclusão restaram 09 …


Assessing And Quantifying High Risk: Comparing Risky Behaviors By Youth In An Urban, Disadvantaged Community With Nationally Representative Youth, Monica Swahn, Robert Bossarte May 2012

Assessing And Quantifying High Risk: Comparing Risky Behaviors By Youth In An Urban, Disadvantaged Community With Nationally Representative Youth, Monica Swahn, Robert Bossarte

Monica H. Swahn

No abstract provided.


Violent Attacks On Middle Easterners In The United States During The Month Following The September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attacks, Monica Swahn, R Mahendra, L Paulozzi, R Winston, G Shelley, J Taliano, L Frazier, J Saul May 2012

Violent Attacks On Middle Easterners In The United States During The Month Following The September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attacks, Monica Swahn, R Mahendra, L Paulozzi, R Winston, G Shelley, J Taliano, L Frazier, J Saul

Monica H. Swahn

Objectives: To document and describe hate related violent attacks on Middle Easterners or those perceived to be Middle Easterners during the month following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington, DC. Methods: The LexisNexis database of newspaper reports were used to identify incidents of hate related violent acts against Middle Easterners or those perceived to be Middle Easterners in the US between September 1 and October 11, 2001. A total of 100 incidents of hate related violence were identified in the 2659 news articles that were reviewed. Results: Of the 100 incidents of violent victimization …


The Associations Between Victimization, Feeling Unsafe, And Asthma Episodes Among Us High-School Students, Monica Swahn, Robert Bossarte May 2012

The Associations Between Victimization, Feeling Unsafe, And Asthma Episodes Among Us High-School Students, Monica Swahn, Robert Bossarte

Monica H. Swahn

We examined the associations between victimization, missed school because of feeling unsafe, and asthma episodes among US high-school students using the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey. Cross-sectional analyses on adolescents with asthma (n=1943) showed that any victimization and missed school because of feeling unsafe significantly increased the odds of having an asthma episode in the past year (adjusted odds ratio [OR]=1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07, 1.95 and adjusted OR = 2.93; 95% CI = 1.90, 4.53, respectively). Victimization and feeling unsafe are important but poorly understood risk factors for asthma.


Differences In Frequency Of Violence And Reported Injury Between Relationships With Reciprocal And Nonreciprocal Intimate Partner Violence, Daniel Whitaker, Tadesse Haileyesus, Monica Swahn, Linda Saltzman May 2012

Differences In Frequency Of Violence And Reported Injury Between Relationships With Reciprocal And Nonreciprocal Intimate Partner Violence, Daniel Whitaker, Tadesse Haileyesus, Monica Swahn, Linda Saltzman

Monica H. Swahn

Objectives: We sought to examine the prevalence of reciprocal (i.e., perpetrated by both partners) and nonreciprocal intimate partner violence and to determine whether reciprocity is related to violence frequency and injury. Methods: We analyzed data on young US adults aged 18 to 28 years from the 2001 National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, which contained information about partner violence and injury reported by 11 370 respondents on 18761 heterosexual relationships. Results: Almost 24% of all relationships had some violence, and half (49.7%) of those were reciprocally violent. In nonreciprocally violent relationships, women were the perpetrators in more than 70% of …


Associations Of Daily Eating Episodes, And Eating Away-From-Home With Blood Level Of Total Cholesterol, Yunsheng Ma, Elizabeth R. Bertone-Johnson, Edward J. Stanek, Dr. Nancy L. Cohen, Ira S. Ockene Nov 2011

Associations Of Daily Eating Episodes, And Eating Away-From-Home With Blood Level Of Total Cholesterol, Yunsheng Ma, Elizabeth R. Bertone-Johnson, Edward J. Stanek, Dr. Nancy L. Cohen, Ira S. Ockene

Nancy L. Cohen

The objective of this investigation is to describe the associations of number of eating episodes and proportion of meals eaten away from home with total serum cholesterol. Data from 499 participants, recruited from a health maintenance organization in central Massachusetts, aged 20-70, were used for this analysis. Dietary information and total blood cholesterol were obtained at five sampling points (baseline and four consecutive quarters) during the one-year follow-up. A cross-sectional study was conducted. The results from the study do not support the hypothesis that the number of eating episodes per day is associated with total blood cholesterol. However, we noted …


Risk Of Premature Stroke In Recent Immigrants (Presario): Population-Based Matched Cohort Study., Gustavo Saposnik Dec 2009

Risk Of Premature Stroke In Recent Immigrants (Presario): Population-Based Matched Cohort Study., Gustavo Saposnik

Gustavo Saposnik

No abstract provided.


Myocardial Infarction Associated With Recency Of Immigration To Ontario., Gustavo Saposnik Dec 2009

Myocardial Infarction Associated With Recency Of Immigration To Ontario., Gustavo Saposnik

Gustavo Saposnik

No abstract provided.


Stroke In The Very Elderly: Hospital Care, Case Fatality And Disposition., Gustavo Saposnik Dec 2008

Stroke In The Very Elderly: Hospital Care, Case Fatality And Disposition., Gustavo Saposnik

Gustavo Saposnik

No abstract provided.


Towards An Integrated Model For Breast Cancer Etiology: The Lifelong Interplay Of Genes, Lifestyle, And Hormones, Susan E. Hankinson, Graham A. Colditz, Walter C. Willett Aug 2004

Towards An Integrated Model For Breast Cancer Etiology: The Lifelong Interplay Of Genes, Lifestyle, And Hormones, Susan E. Hankinson, Graham A. Colditz, Walter C. Willett

Graham Andrew Colditz

While the association of a number of risk factors, such as family history and reproductive patterns, with breast cancer has been well established for many years, work in the past 10–15 years also has added substantially to our understanding of disease etiology. Contributions of particular note include the delineation of the role of endogenous and exogenous estrogens to breast cancer risk, and the discovery and quantification of risk associated with several gene mutations (e.g. BRCA1). Although it is difficult to integrate all epidemiologic data into a single biologic model, it is clear that several important components or pathways exist. Early …


Towards An Integrated Model For Breast Cancer Etiology: The Lifelong Interplay Of Genes, Lifestyle, And Hormones, Susan E. Hankinson, Graham A. Colditz, Walter C. Willett Aug 2004

Towards An Integrated Model For Breast Cancer Etiology: The Lifelong Interplay Of Genes, Lifestyle, And Hormones, Susan E. Hankinson, Graham A. Colditz, Walter C. Willett

Susan E. Hankinson

While the association of a number of risk factors, such as family history and reproductive patterns, with breast cancer has been well established for many years, work in the past 10–15 years also has added substantially to our understanding of disease etiology. Contributions of particular note include the delineation of the role of endogenous and exogenous estrogens to breast cancer risk, and the discovery and quantification of risk associated with several gene mutations (e.g. BRCA1). Although it is difficult to integrate all epidemiologic data into a single biologic model, it is clear that several important components or pathways exist. Early …