Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

A Critique Of The False-Positive Report Probability, Joseph Lucke

Joseph Lucke

The false positive report probability (FPRP) was proposed as a Bayesian prophylactic against false reports of significant associations. Unfortunately, the derivation of the FPRP is unsound. A heuristic derivation fails to make its point, and a formal derivation reveals a probabilistic misrepresentation of an observation. As a result, the FPRP can yield serious inferential errors. In particular, the FPRP can use an observation that is many times more likely under the null hypothesis than under the alternative to infer that the null hypothesis is far less probable than the alternative. Contrary to its intended purpose, the FPRP can promote false …