Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Forecasting Covid-19 With Temporal Hierarchies And Ensemble Methods, Li Shandross

Masters Theses

Infectious disease forecasting efforts underwent rapid growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, providing guidance for pandemic response and about potential future trends. Yet despite their importance, short-term forecasting models often struggled to produce accurate real-time predictions of this complex and rapidly changing system. This gap in accuracy persisted into the pandemic and warrants the exploration and testing of new methods to glean fresh insights.

In this work, we examined the application of the temporal hierarchical forecasting (THieF) methodology to probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 incident hospital admissions in the United States. THieF is an innovative forecasting technique that aggregates time-series data into …

Differential Toxicity Of Pm2.5 Components And Modified Health Effects Modeling: A Case Study In Nepal, Jeremy Brownholtz

Masters Theses

During the latter part of the 20^th century, a transition away from coal as a major energy source in developed countries was accompanied by a notable decrease in air pollution-related deaths in those countries. Currently the same phenomenon is being observed in developing nations like China and India. However, many areas that do still rely on coal for their energy production or industrial needs also reflect a gap in research on the effects of those specific processes on local populations. Located in Nepal at the foot of the Himalayan Plateau, Kathmandu represents one such location. The local economy of …

Three Dimensional Spatio-Temporal Cluster Analysis Of Sars-Cov-2 Infections, Keith W. Allison

Masters Theses

The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the need for fine-scale analysis of the clustering of cases of infectious disease in order to better understand and prevent the localized spread of infection. The students living on the University of Massachusetts, Amherst campus provided a unique opportunity to do so, due to frequent mandatory testing during the 2020-2021 academic year, and dense living conditions. The South-West dormitory area is of particular interest due to its extremely high population density, housing around half of students living on campus during normal conditions. Using data gathered by the Public Health Promotion Center (PHPC), we analyzed the …

Evaluating Public Masking Mandates On Covid-19 Growth Rates In U.S. States, Angus K. Wong

Masters Theses

U.S. state governments have implemented numerous policies to help mitigate the spread of COVID-19. While there is strong biological evidence supporting the wearing of face masks or coverings in public spaces, the impact of public masking policies remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate how early versus delayed implementation of state-level public masking orders impacted subsequent COVID-19 growth rates. We defined “early” implementation as having a state-level mandate in place before September 1, 2020, the approximate start of the school-year. We defined COVID-19 growth rates as the relative increase in confirmed cases 7, 14, 21, 30, 45, 60-days after September 1. …

The Role Of Vegetative Cover In Enhancing Resilience To Climate Change And Improving Public Health, Anastasia D. Ivanova

Masters Theses

Changing temperature and precipitation patterns are causing degraded soil, water, and air quality which is negatively affecting the safety and health of people, and the productivity of urban and rural communities. However, research shows that implementing urban forests and cover crops into urban and rural landscapes, respectively, can mitigate these effects by providing ecosystem services. As extreme precipitation and heat events continue to intensify, there is a need for comprehensively assessing these ecosystem services under changing climates and for this information to be easily accessible by communities for rapid land-use decision making. Therefore, I investigated the role of urban forests …

Real-Time Dengue Forecasting In Thailand: A Comparison Of Penalized Regression Approaches Using Internet Search Data, Caroline Kusiak

Masters Theses

Dengue fever affects over 390 million people annually worldwide and is of particu- lar concern in Southeast Asia where it is one of the leading causes of hospitalization. Modeling trends in dengue occurrence can provide valuable information to Public Health officials, however many challenges arise depending on the data available. In Thailand, reporting of dengue cases is often delayed by more than 6 weeks, and a small fraction of cases may not be reported until over 11 months after they occurred. This study shows that incorporating data on Google Search trends can improve dis- ease predictions in settings with severely …

Microtransplantation Of Rat Brain Neurolemma Into Xenopus Laevis Oocytes To Study The Effect Of Environmental Toxicants On Endogenous Voltage-Sensitive Ion Channels, Edwin Murenzi

Masters Theses

Microtransplantation of mammalian neurolemma into Xenopus laevis oocytes has been used to study ion channels in terms of their structure and function in the central nervous system. Use of microtransplanted neurolemma is advantageous in that tissue can be obtained from various sources, ion channels and receptors are present in their native configuration and they can be used to evaluate numerous channelpathies caused by environmental toxicants. Here we show that Xenopus oocytes injected with fragments of rat brain neurolemma successfully express functional native ion channels that are assembled in their own plasma membrane. Using a high throughput two electrode voltage clamp …

A Comparison Of Techniques For Handling Missing Data In Longitudinal Studies, Alexander R. Bogdan

Masters Theses

Missing data are a common problem in virtually all epidemiological research, especially when conducting longitudinal studies. In these settings, clinicians may collect biological samples to analyze changes in biomarkers, which often do not conform to parametric distributions and may be censored due to limits of detection. Using complete data from the BioCycle Study (2005-2007), which followed 259 premenopausal women over two menstrual cycles, we compared four techniques for handling missing biomarker data with non-Normal distributions. We imposed increasing degrees of missing data on two non-Normally distributed biomarkers under conditions of missing completely at random, missing at random, and missing not …

Sleep Patterns, Urinary Levels Of Melatonin And Subsequent Weight Change In The Women’S Health Initiative Observational Study, Nicole M. Barron

Masters Theses

Results from prospective studies examining associations between sleep duration and weight gain have been mixed. Melatonin has been hypothesized to mediate the association between sleep duration and weight/body composition. In cross-sectional studies, aMT6s has been shown to be inversely associated with weight/body fat percentage. We examined associations between baseline sleep duration, insomnia status, aMT6s levels with weight/body fat percentage through 6 years, utilizing a subset 690 women who participated in a breast cancer case-control study nested within the WHI-OS. Multi-variable and mixed-effects regression was used to calculate beta-coefficients and 95% confidence intervals. Cross-sectional analyses showed urinary aMT6s levels were inversely …

A Comparative Sustainability Study For Treatment Of Domestic Wastewater: Conventional Concrete And Steel Technology Vs. Vegetated Sand Beds (Vsb’S) And Their Relative Differences In Co2 Production, Alicia M. Milch

Masters Theses

Conventional wastewater treatment in the U.S. is an energy dependent and carbon dioxide emitting process. Typical mechanical systems consume copious amounts of energy, which is most commonly produced from fossil fuel combustion that results in the production of CO₂. The associated organic load is also metabolized by microorganisms into CO₂ and H₂O. As the desire to reduce CO₂ output becomes more prominent, it is logical to assess the costs of conventional treatment methods and to compare them to alternative, more sustainable technology. Vegetated Sand Bed (VSB) and Reed Bed (RB) systems are green technologies …

Thermo-Responsive Poly(N-Isopropylacrylamide) And Its Critical Solution Temperature Type Behavior In Presence Of Hydrophilic Ionic Liquids, Purnendu K. Nayak

Masters Theses

Thermo-responsive homopolymer poly(N-isopropylacrylamide), is a widely studied and used polymer. Our recent observations on thermal behavior of aqueous solutions of this polymer requires a short overview of existing results in order to understand the formation of different phases, both stable and unstable with the addition of hydrophilic Ionic liquids (ILs) 1-Butyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate ([BMIM][BF₄]), 1-Butyl-3-methylimidazolium acetate ([BMIM][OAc]) and 1-Butyl-3-methylimidazolium thiocyanate ([BMIM][SCN]) to the system. PNIPAM is soluble in cold water due to its inter- and intramolecular hydrogen bonding but phase separates upon heating at T > 32 , which is its lower critical solution temperature (LCST). PNIPAM exists in an …