Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Characterizing The Reproduction Number Of Epidemics With Early Subexponential Growth Dynamics., Gerardo Chowell, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Seyed M Moghadas

Global Health Faculty Publications

Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate …

Estimating Indoor Pm2.5 And Co Concentrations In Households In Southern Nepal: The Nepal Cookstove Intervention Trials, C. Chen, S. Zeger, P. Breysse, J. Katz, W. Checkley, F. Curriero, James Tielsch

Global Health Faculty Publications

High concentrations of household air pollution (HAP) due to biomass fuel usage with unvented, insufficient combustion devices are thought to be an important health risk factor in South Asia population. To better characterize the indoor concentrations of particulate matter (PM2.5) and carbon monoxide (CO), and to understand their impact on health in rural southern Nepal, this study analyzed daily monitoring data collected with DataRAM pDR-1000 and LASCAR CO data logger in 2980 households using traditional biomass cookstove indoor through the Nepal Cookstove Intervention Trial–Phase I between March 2010 and October 2011. Daily average PM2.5 and CO concentrations collected in area …

A Generalized-Growth Model To Characterize The Early Ascending Phase Of Infectious Disease Outbreaks, Cecile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Gerardo Chowell

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background

A better characterization of the early growth dynamics of an epidemic is needed to dissect the important drivers of disease transmission, refine existing transmission models, and improve disease forecasts.

Materials and methods

We introduce a 2-parameter generalized-growth model to characterize the ascending phase of an outbreak and capture epidemic profiles ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth. We test the model against empirical outbreak data representing a variety of viral pathogens in historic and contemporary populations, and provide simulations highlighting the importance of sub-exponential growth for forecasting purposes.

Results

We applied the generalized-growth model to 20 infectious disease outbreaks representing …

Effect Of An Improved Biomass Stove On Acute Lower Respiratory Infections In Young Children In Rural Nepal: A Cluster-Randomised, Step-Wedge Trial, James M. Tielsch, Joanne Katz, Subarna K. Khatry, Laxman Shrestha, Patrick N. Breysse, Scott L. Zeger, +5 Additional Authors

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background

Acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) are an important cause of death in young children in low income countries. High concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) indoors caused by open burning of biomass are associated with risk of ALRI. However, improved biomass stoves reduce emissions and might reduce the incidence of lower respiratory illness. A cluster-randomised, step-wedge, community-based trial was conducted to estimate the eff ect that a change from open burning of biomass to improved biomass stoves could have on rates of ALRI in children younger than 36 months in a rural area of southern Nepal.

Methods

Households were …

Validity Of Home-Based Sonographic Diagnosis Of Obstetric Risk Factors By Auxiliary Nurse Midwives In Rural Nepal, Naoko Kozuki, Luke C. Mullany, Subarna K. Khatry, Ram Ghimire, Sharma Paudel, James M. Tielsch, +5 Additional Authors

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background

Approximately 2·3 million fetal, neonatal, or maternal deaths occur annually during the intrapartum period or on the day of birth. Several risk factors for intrapartum-related complications require ultrasonography for accurate diagnosis, but sonographic services are scarce in low-resource settings. In this study, we aimed to assess the feasibility of community-based ultrasonography conducted by auxiliary nurse midwives to identify basic obstetric risk factors, in rural Sarlahi District, Nepal. We aimed to assess the validity at which these health workers can detect noncephalic position, multiple gestation, and placenta previa and to explore whether sonographic diagnosis could improve outcomes for women with …

Unintended Pregnancies In Brazil - A Challenge For The Recommendation To Delay Pregnancy Due To Zika, Cynthia Schuck-Paim, Daniel Lopez, Lone Simonsen, Wladimir Alonso

Global Health Faculty Publications

Because of the potential link between the ongoing Zika virus outbreak and a surge in the number of cases of congenital microcephaly, officials in Latin America have recommended that women postpone pregnancy until this association is firmly established or the outbreak subsides. However, in all these countries a large proportion of babies are still born out of unplanned pregnancies. Teenage girls are particularly at high risk, as they often lack access to preventive contraception methods, or the knowledge to use them appropriately. To gauge the magnitude of the barriers preventing the implementation of such a recommendation in Brazil, the country …

Infant Vaccination Timing: Beyond Traditional Coverage Metrics For Maximizing Impact Of Vaccine Programs, An Example From Southern Nepal., Michelle M Hughes, Joanne Katz, Janet A Englund, Subarna K Khatry, Laxman Shrestha, Steven C Leclerq, Mark Steinhoff, James M. Tielsch

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background

Immunization programs currently measure coverage by assessing the proportion of children 12–24 months who have been immunized but this does not address the important question of when the scheduled vaccines were administered. Data capturing the timing of vaccination in first 6 months, when severe disease is most likely to occur, are limited.

Objective

To estimate the time to Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) (recommended at birth), diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-H, influenza b-hepatitis B (DTP-Hib-HepB), and oral polio vaccine (OPV) (recommended at 6, 10, and 14 weeks) vaccinations and risk factors for vaccination delay in infants <6 months of age in a district in southern Nepal where traditional coverage metrics are high.

Design/methods

Infants enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of …

Knowledge, Attitude And Practices: Assessing Maternal And Child Health Care Handbook Intervention In Vietnam, Hirotsugu Aiga, Vinh Duc Nguyen, Cuong Dinh Nguyen, Tho Thi Thi Nguyen, Lien Thi Phuong Nguyen

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background

Maternal and Child Health (MCH) Handbook, an integrated MCH home-based record, was piloted in four provinces of Vietnam (Dien Bien, Hoa Binh, Thanh Hoa and An Giang). The study is aimed at assessing the changes in pregnant women’s behavior towards the frequencies of their antenatal care service utilizations and their subsequent breastfeeding practices up to six months of age, through the MCH Handbook intervention. This is because the levels of pregnant women’s knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) towards their antenatal care service utilizations and exclusive breastfeeding practices have been previously neither analyzed nor reported in relation to MCH home-based …

Global Mortality Impact Of The 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic, Cecile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Rodrigo Fuentes, Jose Flores, Mark A. Miller, Gerardo Chowell

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background. Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics.

Methods. We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic.

Results. The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10 000 population (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–2.6 cases/10 000 population) on average during 1957–1959. Excess mortality rates varied 70-fold …

Relationship Of Suicide Rates With Climate And Economic Variables In Europe During 2000–2012, Konstantinos Fountoulakis, Isaia Chatzikosta, Konstantinos Pastiadis, Prodromos Zanis, Wolfram Kawohl, Eliot Sorel, +45 Additional Authors

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background

It is well known that suicidal rates vary considerably among European countries and the reasons for this are unknown, although several theories have been proposed. The effect of economic variables has been extensively studied but not that of climate.

Methods

Data from 29 European countries covering the years 2000–2012 and concerning male and female standardized suicidal rates (according to WHO), economic variables (according World Bank) and climate variables were gathered. The statistical analysis included cluster and principal component analysis and categorical regression.

Results

The derived models explained 62.4 % of the variability of male suicidal rates. Economic variables alone …

A New Look At Care In Pregnancy: Simple, Effective Interventions For Neglected Populations, Stephen Hodgins, James M. Tielsch, Kristen Rankin, Amber Robinson, Annie Kearns, Jacquelyn Caglia

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background

Although this is beginning to change, the content of antenatal care has been relatively neglected in safe-motherhood program efforts. This appears in part to be due to an unwarranted belief that interventions over this period have far less impact than those provided around the time of birth. In this par, we review available evidence for 21 interventions potentially deliverable during pregnancy at high coverage to neglected populations in low income countries, with regard to effectiveness in reducing risk of: maternal mortality, newborn mortality, stillbirth, prematurity and intrauterine growth restriction. Selection was restricted to interventions that can be provided by …

Building Capacity In Implementation Science Research Training At The University Of Nairobi., George O Osanjo, Julius O Oyugi, Isaac O Kibwage, Walter O Mwanda, Elizabeth N Ngugi, Fredrick C Otieno, Wycliffe Ndege, Mara Child, Carey Farquhar, Jeremy Penner, Zohray Talib, James N Kiarie

Global Health Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: Health care systems in sub-Saharan Africa, and globally, grapple with the problem of closing the gap between evidence-based health interventions and actual practice in health service settings. It is essential for health care systems, especially in low-resource settings, to increase capacity to implement evidence-based practices, by training professionals in implementation science. With support from the Medical Education Partnership Initiative, the University of Nairobi has developed a training program to build local capacity for implementation science.

METHODS: This paper describes how the University of Nairobi leveraged resources from the Medical Education Partnership to develop an institutional program that provides training …

Exploring Geographic Distributions Of High-Risk Water, Sanitation, And Hygiene Practices And Their Association With Child Diarrhea In Uganda, Mitsuaki Hirai, Amira A. Roess, Cheng Huang, Jay P. Graham

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background: High-risk water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) practices are still prevalent in most low-income countries. Because of limited access to WASH, children may be put at an increased risk of diarrheal diseases.

Objectives: This study aims to 1) develop a new measure of WASH-induced burden, the WASH Resource Index (WRI), and estimate its correlation with child diarrhea and an additive index of high-risk WASH practices; 2) explore the geographic distribution of high-risk WASH practices, child diarrhea, and summary indices at the cluster level; and 3) examine the association between the WRI and child diarrhea at the individual level. …

Attitudes And Factors Affecting Acceptability Of Self-Administered Cervicovaginal Sampling For Human Papillomavirus (Hpv) Genotyping As An Alternative To Pap Testing Among Multiethnic Malaysian Women., Mahirah Ma'som, Nirmala Bhoo-Pathy, Nazrila Hairizan Nasir, Jerome Bellinson, Shridevi Subramaniam, Yuntong Ma, Siew-Hwei Yap, Pik-Pin Goh, Patti Gravitt, Yin Ling Woo

Global Health Faculty Publications

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the attitudes and acceptability of self-administered cervicovaginal sampling compared with conventional physician-acquired Papanicolaou (Pap) smear among multiethnic Malaysian women.

METHOD: A cross-sectional study was carried out via interviewer-administered surveys from August 2013 through August 2015 at five government-run, urban health clinics in the state of Selangor. Subjects were participants from an ongoing community-based human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence study who answered a standard questionnaire before and after self-sampling. The cervicovaginal self-sampling for HPV genotyping was performed using a simple brush ('Just for Me'; Preventive Oncology International, Hong Kong). Detailed data on sociodemographics, …

Fragmented Implementation Of Maternal And Child Health Home-Based Records In Vietnam: Need For Integration, Hirotsugu Aiga, Vinh Duc Nguyen, Cuong Dinh Nguyen, Tho Thi Thi Nguyen, Lien Thi Phuong Nguyen

Global Health Faculty Publications

Background: Home-based records (HBRs) are globally implemented as the effective tools that encourage pregnant women and mothers to timely and adequately utilise maternal and child health (MCH) services. While availability and utilisation of nationally representative HBRs have been assessed in several earlier studies, the reality of a number of HBRs subnationally implemented in a less coordinated manner has been neither reported nor analysed.

Objectives: This study is aimed at estimating the prevalence of HBRs for MCH and the level of fragmentation of and overlapping between different HBRs for MCH in Vietnam. The study further attempts to identify health …