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Probabilities Of Transition Among Health States For Older Adults, Paula Diehr, Donald L. Patrick
Probabilities Of Transition Among Health States For Older Adults, Paula Diehr, Donald L. Patrick
UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series
Goal: To estimate the probabilities of transition among self-rated health states for older adults, and examine how they vary by age and sex. Methods: We used self-rated health (Excellent, Very Good, Good, Fair, Poor, Dead) collected in two longitudinal studies of older adults (Mean age 75) to estimate the probability of transition in two years. We used the estimates to project future health for selected cohorts.
Findings: These older adults were most likely to be in the same health state 2 years later, but a substantial proportion changed in both directions. Transition probabilities varied by initial health state, age and …