Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Uncertainty And The Value Of Diagnostic Information With Application To Axillary Lymph Node Dissection In Breast Cancer, Giovanni Parmigiani

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

In clinical decision making, it is common to ask whether, and how much, a diagnostic procedure is contributing to subsequent treatment decisions. Statistically, quantification of the value of the information provided by a diagnostic procedure can be carried out using decision trees with multiple decision points, representing both the diagnostic test and the subsequent treatments that may depend on the test's results. This article investigates probabilistic sensitivity analysis approaches for exploring and communicating parameter uncertainty in such decision trees. Complexities arise because uncertainty about a model's inputs determines uncertainty about optimal decisions at all decision nodes of a tree. We …

Survival Model Predictive Accuracy And Roc Curves, Patrick Heagerty, Yingye Zheng

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The predictive accuracy of a survival model can be summarized using extensions of the proportion of variation explained by the model, or R^2, commonly used for continuous response models, or using extensions of sensitivity and specificity which are commonly used for binary response models.

In this manuscript we propose new time-dependent accuracy summaries based on time-specific versions of sensitivity and specificity calculated over risk sets. We connect the accuracy summaries to a previously proposed global concordance measure which is a variant of Kendall's tau. In addition, we show how standard Cox regression output can be used to obtain estimates of …

Time-Series Studies Of Particulate Matter, Michelle L. Bell, Jonathan M. Samet, Francesca Dominici

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Studies of air pollution and human health have evolved from descriptive studies of the early phenomena of large increases in adverse health effects following extreme air pollution episodes, to time-series analyses and the development of sophisticated regression models. In fact, advanced statistical methods are necessary to address the many challenges inherent in the detection of a small pollution risk in the presence of many confounders. This paper reviews the history, methods, and findings of the time-series studies estimating health risks associated with short-term exposure to particulate matter, though much of the discussion is applicable to epidemiological studies of air pollution …

A Corrected Pseudo-Score Approach For Additive Hazards Model With Longitudinal Covariates Measured With Error, Xiao Song, Yijian Huang

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In medical studies, it is often of interest to characterize the relationship between a time-to-event and covariates, not only time-independent but also time-dependent. Time-dependent covariates are generally measured intermittently and with error. Recent interests focus on the proportional hazards framework, with longitudinal data jointly modeled through a mixed effects model. However, approaches under this framework depend on the normality assumption of the error, and might encounter intractable numerical difficulties in practice. This motivates us to consider an alternative framework, that is, the additive hazards model, under which little has been done when time-dependent covariates are measured with error. We propose …

Decreasing Barriers For Teens: Evaluation Of A New Teenage Pregnancy Prevention Strategy In School-Based Clinics, Abbey C. Sidebottom, Amanda Birnbaum, Sarah S. Nafstad

Department of Public Health Scholarship and Creative Works

Sidebottom et al seek to evaluate the effects of the change in distribution systems on students' receipt of requested contraceptives and demand for contraceptive school-based clinics (SBC). The result of the study reveals that the average number of requests per student was higher under the voucher system, possibly as a consequence of expires vouchers resulting in repeated requests. The findings also suggest that SBCs could go a step further in reducing adolescents' barriers to accessing contraceptives by adopting an on-site direct delivery system..

Cross-Calibration Of Stroke Disability Measures: Bayesian Analysis Of Longitudinal Ordinal Categorical Data Using Negative Dependence, Giovanni Parmigiani, Heidi W. Ashih, Gregory P. Samsa, Pamela W. Duncan, Sue Min Lai, David B. Matchar

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

It is common to assess disability of stroke patients using standardized scales, such as the Rankin Stroke Outcome Scale (RS) and the Barthel Index (BI). The Rankin Scale, which was designed for applications to stroke, is based on assessing directly the global conditions of a patient. The Barthel Index, which was designed for general applications, is based on a series of questions about the patient’s ability to carry out 10 basis activities of daily living. As both scales are commonly used, but few studies use both, translating between scales is important in gaining an overall understanding of the efficacy of …

An Extended General Location Model For Causal Inference From Data Subject To Noncompliance And Missing Values, Yahong Peng, Rod Little, Trivellore E. Raghuanthan

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Noncompliance is a common problem in experiments involving randomized assignment of treatments, and standard analyses based on intention-to treat or treatment received have limitations. An attractive alternative is to estimate the Complier-Average Causal Effect (CACE), which is the average treatment effect for the subpopulation of subjects who would comply under either treatment (Angrist, Imbens and Rubin, 1996, henceforth AIR). We propose an Extended General Location Model to estimate the CACE from data with non-compliance and missing data in the outcome and in baseline covariates. Models for both continuous and categorical outcomes and ignorable and latent ignorable (Frangakis and Rubin, 1999) …

Geographical And Temporal Distribution Of Human Giardiasis In Ontario, Canada., Agricola Odoi, S W. Martin, P Michel, J Holt, D Middleton, J Wilson

Faculty Publications and Other Works -- Biomedical and Diagnostic Sciences

BACKGROUND: Giardia is the most frequently identified intestinal parasite in North America. Although information on geographical distribution of giardiasis is critical in identifying communities at high risk, little has been done in this area. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the geographical and temporal distribution of human giardiasis in Ontario in order to identify possible high risk areas and seasons. Two spatial scales of analyses and two disease measures were used with a view to identifying the best of each in assessing geographical patterns of giardiasis in Ontario. Global Moran's I and Moran Local Indicators of Spatial …

Predicting Adolescents’ Intake Of Fruits And Vegetables, Leslie A. Lytle, Sherri Varnell, David M. Murray, Mary Story, Cherly Perry, Amanda Birnbaum, Martha Y. Kubik

Department of Public Health Scholarship and Creative Works

Objective

To explore potential predictors of adolescent fruit and vegetable intake by expanding on current theory and drawing from other adolescent research.

Design

This research reports on the baseline and interim data from a school-based intervention study. Data were collected through surveys administered to students at the beginning and end of their 7th-grade year.

Setting

The students attended 16 public schools in Minnesota.

Participants

Data were collected on 3878 students; approximately half were female and 67% were white. All students in the 7th-grade cohort were invited to participate in the surveys and over 94% completed both surveys.

Variables Measured

Our …

Temporal Stability And Geographic Variation In Cumulative Case Fatality Rates And Average Doubling Times Of Sars Epidemics, Alison P. Galvani, Xiudong Lei, Nicholas P. Jewell

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We analyze temporal stability and geographic trends in cumulative case fatality rates and average doubling times of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). In part, we account for correlations between case fatality rates and doubling times through differences in control measures. We discuss factors that may alter future estimates of case fatality rates. We also discuss reasons for heterogeneity in doubling times among countries and the implications for the control of SARS in different countries and parameterization of epidemic models.

School Functioning And Violent Behavior Among Young Adolescents: A Contextual Analysis, Amanda Birnbaum, Leslie A. Lytle, Peter J. Hannan, David M. Murray, Cheryl L. Perry, Jean L. Foster

Department of Public Health Scholarship and Creative Works

This paper examines associations between overall school functioning and the frequency of violent behaviors among young adolescents (ages 10–14). The sample included 16 middle schools participating in an unrelated intervention study (on nutrition) in Minneapolis, Minnesota. A School Functioning Index developed to characterize schools’ overall stability, performance, and demographics was constructed using data from public archives and school administrator surveys. Data on violent behaviors and other variables were collected in student surveys in fall 1998 and spring 1999. We used multilevel modeling to assess the effect of school functioning on violent behavior after adjusting for known individual-level covariates of violent …

Identifying Target Populations For Screening Or Not Screening Using Logic Regression, Holly Janes, Margaret S. Pepe, Charles Kooperberg, Polly Newcomb

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Colorectal cancer remains a significant public health concern despite the fact that effective screening procedures exist and that the disease is treatable when detected at early stages. Numerous risk factors for colon cancer have been identified, but none are very predictive alone. We sought to determine whether there are certain combinations of risk factors that distinguish well between cases and controls, and that could be used to identify subjects at particularly high or low risk of the disease to target screening. Using data from the Seattle site of the Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (C-CFR), we fit logic regression models to …

Improved Confidence Intervals For The Sensitivity At A Fixed Level Of Specificity Of A Continuous-Scale Diagnostic Test, Xiao-Hua Zhou, Gengsheng Qin

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

For a continuous-scale test, it is an interest to construct a confidence interval for the sensitivity of the diagnostic test at the cut-off that yields a predetermined level of its specificity (eg. 80%, 90%, or 95%). IN this paper we proposed two new intervals for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test at a fixed level of specificity. We then conducted simulation studies to compare the relative performance of these two intervals with the best existing BCa bootstrap interval, proposed by Platt et al. (2000). Our simulation results showed that the newly proposed intervals are better than the BCa bootstrap …

A Bootstrap Confidence Interval Procedure For The Treatment Effect Using Propensity Score Subclassification, Wanzhu Tu, Xiao-Hua Zhou

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In the analysis of observational studies, propensity score subclassification has been shown to be a powerful method for adjusting unbalanced covariates for the purpose of causal inferences. One practical difficulty in carrying out such an analysis is to obtain a correct variance estimate for such inferences, while reducing bias in the estimate of the treatment effect due to an imbalance in the measured covariates. In this paper, we propose a bootstrap procedure for the inferences concerning the average treatment effect; our bootstrap method is based on an extension of Efron’s bias-corrected accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence interval to a two-sample problem. …

Estimating The Accuracy Of Polymerase Chain Reaction-Based Tests Using Endpoint Dilution, Jim Hughes, Patricia Totten

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

PCR-based tests for various microorganisms or target DNA sequences are generally acknowledged to be highly "sensitive" yet the concept of sensitivity is ill-defined in the literature on these tests. We propose that sensitivity should be expressed as a function of the number of target DNA molecules in the sample (or specificity when the target number is 0). However, estimating this "sensitivity curve" is problematic since it is difficult to construct samples with a fixed number of targets. Nonetheless, using serially diluted replicate aliquots of a known concentration of the target DNA sequence, we show that it is possible to disentangle …

Syndromic Surveillance Using Minimum Transfer Of Identifiable Data: The Example Of The National Bioterrorism Syndromic Surveillance Demonstration Program, Richard Platt, Carmella Bocchino, Blake Caldwell, Robert Harmon, Ken Kleinman, Ross Lazarus, Andrew F. Nelson, James D. Nordin, Debra P. Ritzwoller

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

Several health plants and other organizations are collaborating with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to develop a syndromic surveillance system with national coverage that includes more than 20 million people. A principal design feature of this system is reliance on daily reporting of counts of individuals with syndromes of interest in specified geographic regions rather than reporting of individual encounter-level information. On request from public health agencies, health plans and telephone triage services provide additional information regarding individuals who are part of apparent clusters of illness. This reporting framework has several advantages, including less sharing of protected health …

An International Comparison Of Breast Cancer Survival: Winnipeg, Manitoba And Des Moines, Iowa, Metropolitan Areas, Kevin M. Gorey

Social Work Publications

PURPOSE: Extending previous Canadian-United States cancer survival comparisons in large metropolitan areas, this study compares breast cancer survival in smaller metropolitan areas: Winnipeg, Manitoba and Des Moines, Iowa.

METHODS: Manitoba and Iowa cancer registries, respectively, provided a total of 2,383 and 1,545 women with breast cancer (1984 to 1992, followed until December 31, 1997). Socioeconomic data for each person's residence at the time of diagnosis was taken from population censuses.

RESULTS: Socioeconomic status and breast cancer survival were directly associated in the US cohort, but not in the Canadian cohort. Compared with similar patients in Des Moines, residents of the …

Associations Between Perceived Family Meal Environment And Parent Intake Of Fruit,Vegetables, And Fat, Kerri N. Boutelle, Amanda Birnbaum, Leslie Lytle, David M. Murray, Mary T. Story

Department of Public Health Scholarship and Creative Works

Objective

To describe the family mealtime environment and assess associations with adult fruit, vegetable, and fat intake.

Design

Telephone survey.

Participants

A convenience sample of 277 adults in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area were recruited through 4 schools. The sample was 85% female and 70% married. The mean number of children in the household was 2.6 (range 1 to 9).

Variables Measured

Adult fruit and vegetable intake, fat intake, and perceptions of the mealtime environment.

Analysis

Descriptive and mixed-model linear regression.

Results

Participants reported that the television was frequently on during dinner meals and almost one third felt that their family …